Yeah, that's a really good article, and a reasonable explanation of how new media is going to play into sports. I don't think that "cable is going to die" but new players will be coming into things.
As for reallignment, it's hard to figure how that would be affected. It could change a little bit about who is desirable, because a national pay-per-service streaming system changes things. It might change the scenario where Texas or FSU are minimally desirable to the SEC because they've got the markets, or where Pitt is more desirable than Louisville.
But I'm not seeing how it FORCES expansion.
The idea that the five big conferences banded together in a CFA-type agreement is intriguing, and I think this is the first I've seen it mentioned. I think it's entirely plausible, because everyone has weaknesses and something to leverage.
The Pac has almost exclusive coverage of a massive chunk of the country, but they cede the earlier start times and have limited exposure to to the East coast. And they've got little expansion options.
The Big 12 has very strong football and arguably two of the top 5-6 brands, but a tiny population footprint.
The B1G has a massive alumni base around the country and a strong population footprint, but weakening football and an access problem to the population growth regions and the recruiting hotbeds.
The ACC has arguably the most desirable footprint, and strongest basketball and all-around sports. Depending on whether you break up into regions or sub-regions, the ACC is the only conference with a multiple-team presence in several. But they have traditionally weak football and tend to compete with the SEC or pro sports throughout.
The SEC is probably the least vulnerable, simply because their football is national "must see" at this time. But if they were to come back to normal levels, they are extremely regional. The addition of Texas A&M certainly helps their footprint.
As we've seen with reallignment, it's going to be extremely difficult for any one conference to solve their issues, and still maintain what they hold dear. Let's face it, despite all the reallignment fever, the move to solve these individual concerns was a massive bust.
The SEC never got a sniff of Virginia or North Carolina.
The B1G couldn't pull Texas or Southern teams. They got a single outpost in the mid-Atlantic, and solidified the Northeast, and had to bring in troubled athletic departments and piss-poor athletic programs to do so.
The Big 12 couldn't draw an school from any other power conference.
The PAC came close but whiffed on the Big 12 jewels.
So, if we truly are going to have reallignment armageddon in 10-12 years, conferences are going to have to come off their fundamental positions. Will the B1G come off their academic position and take an Oklahoma, FSU or Clemson? Will the SEC come off it's refusal to double up in markets? Will conference accomodate the Longhorn Network, or the "little sisters" that come with schools like Kansas, Oklahoma, and especially Texas?
I'm not so sure. It seems as likely that the conferences work together instead, and leverage their relative strengths, without the outcry, destruction of tradition and character, and possible government interference that massive reallignment would entail.
