SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,491
- Like
- 62,667
I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
FINAL
Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 448 in 159 games = 2.82 per game 681PA = .658 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 434 in 158 games = 2.75 per game 730PA = .595 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 433 in 155 games = 2.79 per game 700PA = .619 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 430 in 161 games = 2.67 per game 717PA = .600 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 415 in 151 games = 2.75 per game 626PA = .663 per plate appearance
Brian Dozier, Twins 415 in 155 games = 2.68 per game 691PA = .601 per plate appearance
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 410 in 158 games = 2.59 per game 679PA = .604 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 407 in 160 games = 2.54 per game 702PA = .580 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Mariners 396 in 161 games = 2.46 per game 715PA = .554 per plate appearance
Carlos Santana, Indians 394 in 158 games = 2.49 per game 688PA = .573 per plate appearance
Dropped from July Top Ten:
George Springer, Astros 391 in 162 games = 2.41 per game 744PA = .526 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 389 in 157 games = 2.48 per game 696PA = .559 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 204 in 158 games = 1.29 per game 730PA = .279 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 194 in 159 games = 1.22 per game 681PA = .285 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 184 in 155 games = 1.19 per game 700PA = .263 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 184 in 160 games = 1.15 per game 702PA = .262 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 183 in 157 games = 1.17 per game 719PA = .255 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 180 in 161 games = 1.12 per game 717PA = .251 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 172 in 153 games = 1.12 per game 679PA = .253 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 171 in 156 games = 1.10 per game 677PA = .253 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Mariners 171 in 161 games = 1.06 per game 715PA = .239 per plate appearance
George Springer, Astros 169 in 162 games = 1.04 per game 744PA = .227 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Manny Machado, Orioles 164 in 157 games = 1.04 per game 696PA = .236 per plate appearance
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Freddie Freeman, Braves 430 in 158 games = 2.72 per game 693PA = .620 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 425 in 158 games = 2.69 per game 705PA = .603 per plate appearance
Joey Votto, Reds 422 in 158 games = 2.67 per game 677PA = .623 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 422 in 160 games = 2.64 per game 696PA = .606 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 417 in 155 games = 2.69 per game 705PA = .591 per plate appearance
Jonathan Villar, Brewers 410 in 156 games = 2.63 per game 679PA = .604 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 394 in 155 games = 2.54 per game 676PA = .583 per plate appearance
Jean Segura, Diamondbacks 390 in 153 games = 2.55 per game 694PA = .562 per plate appearance
Brandon Belt, Giants 379 in 156 games = 2.43 per game 655PA = .579 per plate appearance
Corey Seager, Dodgers 378 in 157 games = 2.50 per game 687PA = .550 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 356 in 142 games = 2.51 per game 582PA = .612 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 352 in 147 games = 2.39 per game 627PA = .569 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 208 in 160 games = 1.30 per game 696PA = .299 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 184 in 155 games = 1.19 per game 699PA = .263 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 177 in 158 games = 1.12 per game 705PA = .251 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 171 in 155 games = 1.10 per game 676PA = .253 per plate appearance
Joey Votto, Reds 169 in 158 games = 1.07 per game 677PA = .250 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 167 in 142 games = 1.18 per game 582PA = .287 per plate appearance
Wil Myers, Padres 165 in 157 games = 1.05 per game 676PA = .244 per plate appearance
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 164 in 143 games = 1.15 per game 641PA = .256 per plate appearance
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 162 in 150 games = 1.08 per game 632PA = .256 per plate appearance
Matt Kemp, Padres/Braves 162 in 156 games = 1.04 per game 672PA = .241 per plate appearance
Dropped from April Top Ten:
Ben Zobrist, Cubs 148 in 147 games = 1.01 per game 631PA = .235 per plate appearance
Comments: The cream rises to the top – for the most part. Mike Trout, after a slow start would up leading the AL in base production. Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are in their expected places. Bryce Harper, didn’t make the top ten, however. His numbers shockingly dropped from .330 with 42 home runs to .243 with 24 home runs. He was supposed to be the great player of this generation but Trout, Goldschmidt and Donaldson have proven more productive and Bryant and Rizzo look at least as good. Arenado obviously has excellent numbers but they are Colorado numbers. He hit .312 with 25 homers at home and .277 with 16 homers on the road. He produced 240 bases and 128 runs at home vs. 182/80 on the road.
A lot of the top National League performer play for non-contending teams so the MVP should be between Bryant and Rizzo. Bryant has the edge in numbers and will probably win it but I’ve always thought Rizzo was the leader of the team and the key man in the Line-up. He’s always seemed to hurt my Mets more. Mookie Betts should be a shoe-in as AL MVP because the Red Sox had a much better year than the Angels and Donaldson and Encarncion will split votes on the Blue Jays. Jose Altuve is an interesting player but he faded at the end. And good bye, Big Popi. You had the best sayonara year, (.315-38-127) of anyone ever.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
FINAL
Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 448 in 159 games = 2.82 per game 681PA = .658 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 434 in 158 games = 2.75 per game 730PA = .595 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 433 in 155 games = 2.79 per game 700PA = .619 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 430 in 161 games = 2.67 per game 717PA = .600 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 415 in 151 games = 2.75 per game 626PA = .663 per plate appearance
Brian Dozier, Twins 415 in 155 games = 2.68 per game 691PA = .601 per plate appearance
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 410 in 158 games = 2.59 per game 679PA = .604 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 407 in 160 games = 2.54 per game 702PA = .580 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Mariners 396 in 161 games = 2.46 per game 715PA = .554 per plate appearance
Carlos Santana, Indians 394 in 158 games = 2.49 per game 688PA = .573 per plate appearance
Dropped from July Top Ten:
George Springer, Astros 391 in 162 games = 2.41 per game 744PA = .526 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 389 in 157 games = 2.48 per game 696PA = .559 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 204 in 158 games = 1.29 per game 730PA = .279 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 194 in 159 games = 1.22 per game 681PA = .285 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 184 in 155 games = 1.19 per game 700PA = .263 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 184 in 160 games = 1.15 per game 702PA = .262 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 183 in 157 games = 1.17 per game 719PA = .255 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 180 in 161 games = 1.12 per game 717PA = .251 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 172 in 153 games = 1.12 per game 679PA = .253 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 171 in 156 games = 1.10 per game 677PA = .253 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Mariners 171 in 161 games = 1.06 per game 715PA = .239 per plate appearance
George Springer, Astros 169 in 162 games = 1.04 per game 744PA = .227 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Manny Machado, Orioles 164 in 157 games = 1.04 per game 696PA = .236 per plate appearance
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Freddie Freeman, Braves 430 in 158 games = 2.72 per game 693PA = .620 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 425 in 158 games = 2.69 per game 705PA = .603 per plate appearance
Joey Votto, Reds 422 in 158 games = 2.67 per game 677PA = .623 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 422 in 160 games = 2.64 per game 696PA = .606 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 417 in 155 games = 2.69 per game 705PA = .591 per plate appearance
Jonathan Villar, Brewers 410 in 156 games = 2.63 per game 679PA = .604 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 394 in 155 games = 2.54 per game 676PA = .583 per plate appearance
Jean Segura, Diamondbacks 390 in 153 games = 2.55 per game 694PA = .562 per plate appearance
Brandon Belt, Giants 379 in 156 games = 2.43 per game 655PA = .579 per plate appearance
Corey Seager, Dodgers 378 in 157 games = 2.50 per game 687PA = .550 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 356 in 142 games = 2.51 per game 582PA = .612 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 352 in 147 games = 2.39 per game 627PA = .569 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 208 in 160 games = 1.30 per game 696PA = .299 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 184 in 155 games = 1.19 per game 699PA = .263 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 177 in 158 games = 1.12 per game 705PA = .251 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 171 in 155 games = 1.10 per game 676PA = .253 per plate appearance
Joey Votto, Reds 169 in 158 games = 1.07 per game 677PA = .250 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 167 in 142 games = 1.18 per game 582PA = .287 per plate appearance
Wil Myers, Padres 165 in 157 games = 1.05 per game 676PA = .244 per plate appearance
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 164 in 143 games = 1.15 per game 641PA = .256 per plate appearance
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 162 in 150 games = 1.08 per game 632PA = .256 per plate appearance
Matt Kemp, Padres/Braves 162 in 156 games = 1.04 per game 672PA = .241 per plate appearance
Dropped from April Top Ten:
Ben Zobrist, Cubs 148 in 147 games = 1.01 per game 631PA = .235 per plate appearance
Comments: The cream rises to the top – for the most part. Mike Trout, after a slow start would up leading the AL in base production. Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are in their expected places. Bryce Harper, didn’t make the top ten, however. His numbers shockingly dropped from .330 with 42 home runs to .243 with 24 home runs. He was supposed to be the great player of this generation but Trout, Goldschmidt and Donaldson have proven more productive and Bryant and Rizzo look at least as good. Arenado obviously has excellent numbers but they are Colorado numbers. He hit .312 with 25 homers at home and .277 with 16 homers on the road. He produced 240 bases and 128 runs at home vs. 182/80 on the road.
A lot of the top National League performer play for non-contending teams so the MVP should be between Bryant and Rizzo. Bryant has the edge in numbers and will probably win it but I’ve always thought Rizzo was the leader of the team and the key man in the Line-up. He’s always seemed to hurt my Mets more. Mookie Betts should be a shoe-in as AL MVP because the Red Sox had a much better year than the Angels and Donaldson and Encarncion will split votes on the Blue Jays. Jose Altuve is an interesting player but he faded at the end. And good bye, Big Popi. You had the best sayonara year, (.315-38-127) of anyone ever.
