SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER JUNE
American League
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 252 in 76 games (3.32) and 334 plate appearances (.754)
George Springer, Astros 207 in 75 games (2.75) and 340 plate appearances (.608)
Jose Altuve, Astros 207 in 79 games (2.62) and 345 plate appearances (.600)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 201 in 77 games (2.61) and 340 plate appearances (.591)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 201 in 77 games (2.61) and 354 plate appearances (.568)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 198 in 77 games (2.57) and 322 plate appearances (.615)
Logan Morrison, Rays 194 in 78 games (2.49) and 316 plate appearances (.614)
Carlos Correa, Astros 191 in 74 games (2.58) and 331 plate appearances (.577)
Khris Davis, Athletics 190 in 78 games (2.44) and 332 plate appearances (.572)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 189 in 78 games (2.42) and 339 plate appearances (.558)
Runs Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 105 in 76 games (1.38) and 334 plate appearances (.314)
Carlos Correa, Astros 92 in 74 games (1.24) and 331 plate appearances (.278)
George Springer, Astros 91 in 75 games (1.21) and 340 plate appearances (.268)
Jose Abreu, White Sox 86 in 78 games (1.10) and 341 plate appearances (.252)
Starlin Castro, Yankees 85 in 73 games (1.16) and 313 plate appearances (.272)
Justin Upton, Tigers 85 in 75 games (1.13) and 305 plate appearances (.279)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 84 in 78 games (1.08) and 339 plate appearances (.248)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 82 in 77 games (1.06) and 340 plate appearances (.241)
Miguel Sano, Twins 82 in 72 games (1.14) and 301 plate appearances (.272)
Jose Altuve, Astros 81 in 79 games (1.03) and 345 plate appearances (.235)
National League
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 235 in 90 games (2.61) and 349 plate appearances (.673)
Joey Votto, Reds 234 in 79 games (2.96) and 344 plate appearances (.680)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 223 in 80 games (2.79) and 366 plate appearances (.609)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 212 in 73 games (2.90) and 328 plate appearances (.646)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 208 in 77 games (2.70) and 338 plate appearances (.615)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 203 in 81 games (2.51) and 353 plate appearances (.575)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 199 in 74 games (2.69) and 329 plate appearances (.605)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 199 in 79 games (2.52) and 354 plate appearances (.562)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 196 in 78 games (2.51) and 328 plate appearances (.598)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 195 in 74 games (2.64) and 324 plate appearances (.602)
Runs Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 116 in 80 games (1.45) and 349 plate appearances (.332)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 104 in 80 games (1.30) and 366 plate appearances (.284)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 100 in 73 games (1.37) and 328 plate appearances (.305)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 98 in 77 games (1.27) and 338 plate appearances (.290)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 97 in 81 games (1.20) and 353 plate appearances (.275)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 94 in 74 games (1.27) and 324 plate appearances (.290)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 93 in 73 games (1.27) and 297 plate appearances (.313)
Joey Votto, Reds 93 in 79 games (1.18) and 344 plate appearances (.270)
Domingo Santana, Brewers 87 in 77 games (1.13) and 306 plate appearances (.284)
Corey Seager, Dodgers 83 in 74 games (1.12) and 317 plate appearances (2.61)
Comments: Since Mike Trout, who was having his greatest season, got injured, Aaron Judge pretty much has the AL to himself. No one has comparable numbers. Mike’s averages when he got hurt, (after 47 games) were 3.55 bases per game, (and .811 per plate appearance) and 1.19 runs per game, (.272 per PA). Paul Goldschmidt continues to dominate the NL rankings. Cody Bellinger is quite a year hitting home runs for the Dodgers but his numbers are not quite equal to judge’s. He’s averaging 3.02 bases per game (.716 per PA) and 1.27 runs per game, (.303 per PA). Still, add then to the list of new starts who have suddenly appeared in this decade, (notice how few of the players on these rankings were star when it began).
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER JUNE
American League
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 252 in 76 games (3.32) and 334 plate appearances (.754)
George Springer, Astros 207 in 75 games (2.75) and 340 plate appearances (.608)
Jose Altuve, Astros 207 in 79 games (2.62) and 345 plate appearances (.600)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 201 in 77 games (2.61) and 340 plate appearances (.591)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 201 in 77 games (2.61) and 354 plate appearances (.568)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 198 in 77 games (2.57) and 322 plate appearances (.615)
Logan Morrison, Rays 194 in 78 games (2.49) and 316 plate appearances (.614)
Carlos Correa, Astros 191 in 74 games (2.58) and 331 plate appearances (.577)
Khris Davis, Athletics 190 in 78 games (2.44) and 332 plate appearances (.572)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 189 in 78 games (2.42) and 339 plate appearances (.558)
Runs Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 105 in 76 games (1.38) and 334 plate appearances (.314)
Carlos Correa, Astros 92 in 74 games (1.24) and 331 plate appearances (.278)
George Springer, Astros 91 in 75 games (1.21) and 340 plate appearances (.268)
Jose Abreu, White Sox 86 in 78 games (1.10) and 341 plate appearances (.252)
Starlin Castro, Yankees 85 in 73 games (1.16) and 313 plate appearances (.272)
Justin Upton, Tigers 85 in 75 games (1.13) and 305 plate appearances (.279)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 84 in 78 games (1.08) and 339 plate appearances (.248)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 82 in 77 games (1.06) and 340 plate appearances (.241)
Miguel Sano, Twins 82 in 72 games (1.14) and 301 plate appearances (.272)
Jose Altuve, Astros 81 in 79 games (1.03) and 345 plate appearances (.235)
National League
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 235 in 90 games (2.61) and 349 plate appearances (.673)
Joey Votto, Reds 234 in 79 games (2.96) and 344 plate appearances (.680)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 223 in 80 games (2.79) and 366 plate appearances (.609)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 212 in 73 games (2.90) and 328 plate appearances (.646)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 208 in 77 games (2.70) and 338 plate appearances (.615)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 203 in 81 games (2.51) and 353 plate appearances (.575)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 199 in 74 games (2.69) and 329 plate appearances (.605)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 199 in 79 games (2.52) and 354 plate appearances (.562)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 196 in 78 games (2.51) and 328 plate appearances (.598)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 195 in 74 games (2.64) and 324 plate appearances (.602)
Runs Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 116 in 80 games (1.45) and 349 plate appearances (.332)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 104 in 80 games (1.30) and 366 plate appearances (.284)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 100 in 73 games (1.37) and 328 plate appearances (.305)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 98 in 77 games (1.27) and 338 plate appearances (.290)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 97 in 81 games (1.20) and 353 plate appearances (.275)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 94 in 74 games (1.27) and 324 plate appearances (.290)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 93 in 73 games (1.27) and 297 plate appearances (.313)
Joey Votto, Reds 93 in 79 games (1.18) and 344 plate appearances (.270)
Domingo Santana, Brewers 87 in 77 games (1.13) and 306 plate appearances (.284)
Corey Seager, Dodgers 83 in 74 games (1.12) and 317 plate appearances (2.61)
Comments: Since Mike Trout, who was having his greatest season, got injured, Aaron Judge pretty much has the AL to himself. No one has comparable numbers. Mike’s averages when he got hurt, (after 47 games) were 3.55 bases per game, (and .811 per plate appearance) and 1.19 runs per game, (.272 per PA). Paul Goldschmidt continues to dominate the NL rankings. Cody Bellinger is quite a year hitting home runs for the Dodgers but his numbers are not quite equal to judge’s. He’s averaging 3.02 bases per game (.716 per PA) and 1.27 runs per game, (.303 per PA). Still, add then to the list of new starts who have suddenly appeared in this decade, (notice how few of the players on these rankings were star when it began).