SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
FINAL- AFTER SEPTEMBER
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 476 in 155 games (3.07) and 678 plate appearances (.702)
Jose Altuve, Astros 413 in 153 games (2.70) and 662 plate appearances (.624)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 410 in 152 games (2.70) and 645 plate appearances (.636)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 404 in 159 games (2.54) and 723 plate appearances (.559)
Brian Dozier, Twins 400 in 152 games (2.63) and 705 plate appearances (.567)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 391 in 153 games (2.56) and 712 plate appearances (.549)
Justin Upton, Tigers/Angels 389 in 152 games (2.56) and 635 plate appearances (.613)
Edwin Encarnacion, Indians 385 in 157 games (2.45) and 669 plate appearances (.575)
Khris Davis, Athletics 376 in 153 games (2.46) and 652 plate appearances (.577)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 376 in 155 games (2.43) and 645 plate appearances (.583)
Runs Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 190 in 155 games (1.23) and 678 plate appearances (.280)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 179 in 153 games (1.17) and 712 plate appearances (.251)
Justin Upton, Tigers/Angels 174 in 152 games (1.14) and 635 plate appearances (.274)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 171 in 155 games (1.10) and 645 plate appearances (.265)
Jose Altuve, Astros 169 in 153 games (1.10) and 662 plate appearances (.255)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 168 in 158 games (1.06) and 689 plate appearances (.244)
Eric Hosmer, Royals 167 in 162 games (1.03) and 671 plate appearances (.249)
Brian Dozier, Twins 165 in 152 games (1.09) and 705 plate appearances (.234)
Edwin Encarnacion, Indians 165 in 157 games (1.05) and 669 plate appearances (.247)
Jonathan Schoop 165 in 160 games (1.03) and 675 plate appearances (.244)
Comments: it’s a wonderful Mutt and Jeff race for the American league MVP. (Who were Mutt and Jeff?:
Mutt and Jeff - Wikipedia ) 6-7 280 Aaron Judge vs. 5-6 165 Jose Altuve. Judge hit 28 more home runs than Altuve and walked 69 more times. He drove in 33 more runs and scored 16 more. Altuve’s batting average is 65 points higher: he had 50 more hits, 15 more doubles, surprisingly only one more triple but 23 more steals and 124 less strike outs. They are just opposites in everyway. I prefer Altuve’s brand of ball. Between Judge’s 52 home runs, 127 walks and 208 strike outs, the 7 players behind the pitcher had nothing to do 57% of the time when Aaron was at the plate. But I have to admit that Judge was more productive: he produced 63 more bases and 21 more runs. Both player’s teams made the playoffs. But those who admire Altuve might vote for him anyway. The Yankees just tied the Indians so their teams may be meeting in the playoffs.
Bases Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 466 in 159 games (2.93) and 725 plate appearances (.643)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 464 in 159 games (2.92) and 692 plate appearances (.671)
Joey Votto, Reds 462 in 162 games (2.85) and 707 plate appearances (.653)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 426 in 155 games (2.75) and 665 plate appearances (.641)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 420 in 159 games (2.64) and 680 plate appearances (.618)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 401 in 159 games (2.52) and 679 plate appearances (.591)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 397 in 151 games (2.62) and 665 plate appearances (.597)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 391 in 157 games (2.49) and 691 plate appearances (.566)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 362 in 147 games (2.46) and 605 plate appearances (.598)
Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates 361 in 156 games (2.31) and 650 plate appearances (.555)
Runs Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 204 in 159 games (1.28) and 725 plate appearances (.281)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 201 in 155 games (1.30) and 665 plate appearances (.302)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 196 in 159 games (1.23) and 692 plate appearances (.283)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 193 in 159 games (1.21) and 680 plate appearances (.284)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 180 in 159 games (1.13) and 679 plate appearances (.265)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 176 in 157 games (1.12) and 691 plate appearances (.255)
Joey Votto, Reds 170 in 162 games (1.05) and 707 plate appearances (.240)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 164 in 144 games (1.14) and 593 plate appearances (.277)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 164 in 149 games (1.10) and 635 plate appearances (.258)
Christian Yelich, Marlins 163 in 156 games (1.04) and 695 plate appearances (.235)
Comments: With a Rockies player, you always have to look at their home vs. road numbers:
Charlie Blackmon bases at home 281 in 78 games (3.60) and 350 plate appearances (.803)
Charlie Blackmon bases on road 185 in 81 games (2.28) and 375 plate appearances (.493)
Charlie Blackmon runs at home 117 in 78 games (1.50) and 350 plate appearances (.334)
Charlie Blackmon runs on road 87 in 81 games (1.07) and 375 plate appearances (.232)
Nolan Arenado, bases at home 219 in 78 games (2.81) and 330 plate appearances (.664)
Nolan Arenado, bases on road 201 in 81 games (2.48) and 350 plate appearances (.600)
Nolan Arenado, runs at home 109 in 78 games (1.40) and 330 plate appearances (.330)
Nolan Arenado, runs on road 73 in 81 games (0.90) and 350 plate appearances (.209)
Neither Blackmon nor Arenado would be considered MVP candidates based on their road numbers. To be fair, let’s do the same thing for the other major contenders.
Giancarlo Stanton, bases at home 245 in 79 games (3.10) and 338 plate appearances (.725)
Giancarlo Stanton, bases on road 219 in 80 games (2.74) and 354 plate appearances (.619)
Giancarlo Stanton, runs at home 103 in 79 games (1.30) and 338 plate appearances (.305)
Giancarlo Stanton, runs on road 93 in 80 games (1.16) and 354 plate appearances (.263)
Paul Goldschmidt, bases at home 241 in 78 games (3.09) and 337 plate appearances (.715)
Paul Goldschmidt, bases on road 185 in 77 games (2.40) and 328 plate appearances (.564)
Paul Goldschmidt, runs at home 113 in 78 games (1.45) and 337 plate appearances (.335)
Paul Goldschmidt, runs on road 88 in 77 games (1.14) and 328 plate appearances (.268)
Joey Votto, bases at home 243 in 81 games (3.00) and 344 plate appearances (.706)
Joey Votto, bases on road 219 in 81 games (2.70) and 363 plate appearances (.603)
Joey Votto, runs at home 93 in 81 games (1.15) and 344 plate appearances (.270)
Joey Votto, runs on road 77 in 81 games (0.95) and 363 plate appearances (.212)
It appears that all players perform better at home than on the road, (unless there’s a big home park disadvantage). Stanton is the one of these five players whose road averages would have put him in the top ten in both lists, (although Goldschmidt missed by one percentage point. I think Stanton’s 59 home runs will win him the award.
I’m impressed with the youth of the players in the Top Tens. Lindor is 23, Betts and Ramirez 24, Bryant, Judge, Scoop and Yelich all 25, Arenado, Lamb and Ozuna 26, Altuve, Hosmer, Rendon, Rizzo and Stanton 27. And 27 is supposed to be the beginning of a player’s prime, (typically 27-32). And that doesn’t include the game’s two best players, Mike Trout (25) and Bryce Harper (24), who missed too many games to make the lists.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
FINAL- AFTER SEPTEMBER
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 476 in 155 games (3.07) and 678 plate appearances (.702)
Jose Altuve, Astros 413 in 153 games (2.70) and 662 plate appearances (.624)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 410 in 152 games (2.70) and 645 plate appearances (.636)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 404 in 159 games (2.54) and 723 plate appearances (.559)
Brian Dozier, Twins 400 in 152 games (2.63) and 705 plate appearances (.567)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 391 in 153 games (2.56) and 712 plate appearances (.549)
Justin Upton, Tigers/Angels 389 in 152 games (2.56) and 635 plate appearances (.613)
Edwin Encarnacion, Indians 385 in 157 games (2.45) and 669 plate appearances (.575)
Khris Davis, Athletics 376 in 153 games (2.46) and 652 plate appearances (.577)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 376 in 155 games (2.43) and 645 plate appearances (.583)
Runs Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 190 in 155 games (1.23) and 678 plate appearances (.280)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 179 in 153 games (1.17) and 712 plate appearances (.251)
Justin Upton, Tigers/Angels 174 in 152 games (1.14) and 635 plate appearances (.274)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 171 in 155 games (1.10) and 645 plate appearances (.265)
Jose Altuve, Astros 169 in 153 games (1.10) and 662 plate appearances (.255)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 168 in 158 games (1.06) and 689 plate appearances (.244)
Eric Hosmer, Royals 167 in 162 games (1.03) and 671 plate appearances (.249)
Brian Dozier, Twins 165 in 152 games (1.09) and 705 plate appearances (.234)
Edwin Encarnacion, Indians 165 in 157 games (1.05) and 669 plate appearances (.247)
Jonathan Schoop 165 in 160 games (1.03) and 675 plate appearances (.244)
Comments: it’s a wonderful Mutt and Jeff race for the American league MVP. (Who were Mutt and Jeff?:
Mutt and Jeff - Wikipedia ) 6-7 280 Aaron Judge vs. 5-6 165 Jose Altuve. Judge hit 28 more home runs than Altuve and walked 69 more times. He drove in 33 more runs and scored 16 more. Altuve’s batting average is 65 points higher: he had 50 more hits, 15 more doubles, surprisingly only one more triple but 23 more steals and 124 less strike outs. They are just opposites in everyway. I prefer Altuve’s brand of ball. Between Judge’s 52 home runs, 127 walks and 208 strike outs, the 7 players behind the pitcher had nothing to do 57% of the time when Aaron was at the plate. But I have to admit that Judge was more productive: he produced 63 more bases and 21 more runs. Both player’s teams made the playoffs. But those who admire Altuve might vote for him anyway. The Yankees just tied the Indians so their teams may be meeting in the playoffs.
Bases Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 466 in 159 games (2.93) and 725 plate appearances (.643)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 464 in 159 games (2.92) and 692 plate appearances (.671)
Joey Votto, Reds 462 in 162 games (2.85) and 707 plate appearances (.653)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 426 in 155 games (2.75) and 665 plate appearances (.641)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 420 in 159 games (2.64) and 680 plate appearances (.618)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 401 in 159 games (2.52) and 679 plate appearances (.591)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 397 in 151 games (2.62) and 665 plate appearances (.597)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 391 in 157 games (2.49) and 691 plate appearances (.566)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 362 in 147 games (2.46) and 605 plate appearances (.598)
Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates 361 in 156 games (2.31) and 650 plate appearances (.555)
Runs Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 204 in 159 games (1.28) and 725 plate appearances (.281)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 201 in 155 games (1.30) and 665 plate appearances (.302)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 196 in 159 games (1.23) and 692 plate appearances (.283)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 193 in 159 games (1.21) and 680 plate appearances (.284)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 180 in 159 games (1.13) and 679 plate appearances (.265)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 176 in 157 games (1.12) and 691 plate appearances (.255)
Joey Votto, Reds 170 in 162 games (1.05) and 707 plate appearances (.240)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 164 in 144 games (1.14) and 593 plate appearances (.277)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 164 in 149 games (1.10) and 635 plate appearances (.258)
Christian Yelich, Marlins 163 in 156 games (1.04) and 695 plate appearances (.235)
Comments: With a Rockies player, you always have to look at their home vs. road numbers:
Charlie Blackmon bases at home 281 in 78 games (3.60) and 350 plate appearances (.803)
Charlie Blackmon bases on road 185 in 81 games (2.28) and 375 plate appearances (.493)
Charlie Blackmon runs at home 117 in 78 games (1.50) and 350 plate appearances (.334)
Charlie Blackmon runs on road 87 in 81 games (1.07) and 375 plate appearances (.232)
Nolan Arenado, bases at home 219 in 78 games (2.81) and 330 plate appearances (.664)
Nolan Arenado, bases on road 201 in 81 games (2.48) and 350 plate appearances (.600)
Nolan Arenado, runs at home 109 in 78 games (1.40) and 330 plate appearances (.330)
Nolan Arenado, runs on road 73 in 81 games (0.90) and 350 plate appearances (.209)
Neither Blackmon nor Arenado would be considered MVP candidates based on their road numbers. To be fair, let’s do the same thing for the other major contenders.
Giancarlo Stanton, bases at home 245 in 79 games (3.10) and 338 plate appearances (.725)
Giancarlo Stanton, bases on road 219 in 80 games (2.74) and 354 plate appearances (.619)
Giancarlo Stanton, runs at home 103 in 79 games (1.30) and 338 plate appearances (.305)
Giancarlo Stanton, runs on road 93 in 80 games (1.16) and 354 plate appearances (.263)
Paul Goldschmidt, bases at home 241 in 78 games (3.09) and 337 plate appearances (.715)
Paul Goldschmidt, bases on road 185 in 77 games (2.40) and 328 plate appearances (.564)
Paul Goldschmidt, runs at home 113 in 78 games (1.45) and 337 plate appearances (.335)
Paul Goldschmidt, runs on road 88 in 77 games (1.14) and 328 plate appearances (.268)
Joey Votto, bases at home 243 in 81 games (3.00) and 344 plate appearances (.706)
Joey Votto, bases on road 219 in 81 games (2.70) and 363 plate appearances (.603)
Joey Votto, runs at home 93 in 81 games (1.15) and 344 plate appearances (.270)
Joey Votto, runs on road 77 in 81 games (0.95) and 363 plate appearances (.212)
It appears that all players perform better at home than on the road, (unless there’s a big home park disadvantage). Stanton is the one of these five players whose road averages would have put him in the top ten in both lists, (although Goldschmidt missed by one percentage point. I think Stanton’s 59 home runs will win him the award.
I’m impressed with the youth of the players in the Top Tens. Lindor is 23, Betts and Ramirez 24, Bryant, Judge, Scoop and Yelich all 25, Arenado, Lamb and Ozuna 26, Altuve, Hosmer, Rendon, Rizzo and Stanton 27. And 27 is supposed to be the beginning of a player’s prime, (typically 27-32). And that doesn’t include the game’s two best players, Mike Trout (25) and Bryce Harper (24), who missed too many games to make the lists.
