BPR Numbers as of 2/16/23 | Syracusefan.com

BPR Numbers as of 2/16/23

djcon57

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I know some folks people love to crap on analytics yet SOMEHOW ...you look at the BPR (EvanMiya.com) numbers from Jan 12th vs Feb 16th and it tells you the whole story that anyone who knows what they are watching could tell you.

"Can't start Maliq" - Welp, we start him, somehow we are now better
Bell wasn't playing D. Now it's obvious he's gotten better than the numbers show that. (still not great, but better)
Obvious stuff can be said about Benny, but no need to pile on.

I'd say the one surprise to me is Sy's offensive numbers but there definitely has been games where things move better when he comes in. Less turnovers, better shots. NOT last game, but still overall.

JAN 12th
RANKNAMEOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.081.183.27
2Joseph Girard2.130.222.35
3Justin Taylor0.911.202.10
4Maliq Brown1.170.902.06
5Judah Mintz1.590.301.90
6Symir Torrence0.640.551.19
7John Bol Ajak-0.400.900.50
8Benny Williams0.240.220.45
9Chris Bell0.19-0.010.18
10Mounir Hima-0.500.49-0.01

FEB 16th

RANKNameOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.251.133.37
2Maliq Brown1.880.862.74
3Joseph Girard2.360.172.53
4Symir Torrence1.640.472.12
5Judah Mintz1.700.322.03
6Justin Taylor1.000.501.51
7Chris Bell0.460.320.78
8John Bol Ajak-0.430.930.51
9Mounir Hima-0.280.660.38
10Benny Williams0.030.290.31

 
I know some folks people love to crap on analytics yet SOMEHOW ...you look at the BPR (EvanMiya.com) numbers from Jan 12th vs Feb 16th and it tells you the whole story that anyone who knows what they are watching could tell you.

"Can't start Maliq" - Welp, we start him, somehow we are now better
Bell wasn't playing D. Now it's obvious he's gotten better than the numbers show that. (still not great, but better)
Obvious stuff can be said about Benny, but no need to pile on.

I'd say the one surprise to me is Sy's offensive numbers but there definitely has been games where things move better when he comes in. Less turnovers, better shots. NOT last game, but still overall.

JAN 12th
RANKNAMEOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.081.183.27
2Joseph Girard2.130.222.35
3Justin Taylor0.911.202.10
4Maliq Brown1.170.902.06
5Judah Mintz1.590.301.90
6Symir Torrence0.640.551.19
7John Bol Ajak-0.400.900.50
8Benny Williams0.240.220.45
9Chris Bell0.19-0.010.18
10Mounir Hima-0.500.49-0.01

FEB 16th

RANKNameOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.251.133.37
2Maliq Brown1.880.862.74
3Joseph Girard2.360.172.53
4Symir Torrence1.640.472.12
5Judah Mintz1.700.322.03
6Justin Taylor1.000.501.51
7Chris Bell0.460.320.78
8John Bol Ajak-0.430.930.51
9Mounir Hima-0.280.660.38
10Benny Williams0.030.290.31

What are the numbers based on?
 
What are the numbers based on?
friends fail GIF
 
Yet, some argue that Jimmy starting over Benny last season was nepotism. Proof of the existence of alternative universes.
 
I won’t go too deep because it will be deleted and not worth my time but lmao.

Jimmy has the worst defensive analytics of ANY SYRACUSE STARTER in 2 decades. Fact
And his offensive metrics?
 
I know some folks people love to crap on analytics yet SOMEHOW ...you look at the BPR (EvanMiya.com) numbers from Jan 12th vs Feb 16th and it tells you the whole story that anyone who knows what they are watching could tell you.

"Can't start Maliq" - Welp, we start him, somehow we are now better
Bell wasn't playing D. Now it's obvious he's gotten better than the numbers show that. (still not great, but better)
Obvious stuff can be said about Benny, but no need to pile on.

I'd say the one surprise to me is Sy's offensive numbers but there definitely has been games where things move better when he comes in. Less turnovers, better shots. NOT last game, but still overall.

JAN 12th
RANKNAMEOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.081.183.27
2Joseph Girard2.130.222.35
3Justin Taylor0.911.202.10
4Maliq Brown1.170.902.06
5Judah Mintz1.590.301.90
6Symir Torrence0.640.551.19
7John Bol Ajak-0.400.900.50
8Benny Williams0.240.220.45
9Chris Bell0.19-0.010.18
10Mounir Hima-0.500.49-0.01

FEB 16th

RANKNameOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.251.133.37
2Maliq Brown1.880.862.74
3Joseph Girard2.360.172.53
4Symir Torrence1.640.472.12
5Judah Mintz1.700.322.03
6Justin Taylor1.000.501.51
7Chris Bell0.460.320.78
8John Bol Ajak-0.430.930.51
9Mounir Hima-0.280.660.38
10Benny Williams0.030.290.31
I think the numbers for performance on offense have meaning and are worth looking at.

In my opinion, the defensive performance numbers for a zone team have always been and continue to be essentially meaningless.

They say JGIII is our best defensive player. I think Joe has improved defensively over time and is better defensively than many on the board think but he is at best an average defensive player.

Trying to grade players playing the 2-3 on defense is an exercise in futility. You really have to understand the 2-3, you have to understand the abilities of the players on offense and the game plan of the coaching staff to do this right.

And even if you have all that going for you, it is often unclear who is responsible for allowing the offense to score.

Example:

NC State moves the ball around the perimeter on offense, looking for a weakness. Jack Clark moves into the paint near the area where the ACC logo is. The guards do not drop down on him and remain focused on two players on the perimeter, just outside the 3 point circle.

Clark looks up, sees Jesse has moved up slightly but appears to be giving him the 13 footer he now has. He takes a dribble and steps closer to the basket. The guards remain focused on defending the perimeter. Jesse moves toward Clark and presents himself in defensive position.

Clark looks down low, where Brown is positioned to cut off a post to the low post to DJ Burns. He sees Joiner on the opposite side of the paint, covered by Chris Bell.

He sees right again and sees Jarkel Joiner uncovered deep in the right corner. He passes it to him and Joiner takes a relatively unguarded 3.

If he makes it, whose fault is it? I think a lot depends on what the staff has told Brown. The forwards (and the guards) are constantly asked to make choices and the choice they make is based on where players on offense are and what their skill set is.

The staff knows Burns has become a key part of the NC State offense and is lethal when he gets the ball in scoring position down low. They have likely told Brown to focus on Burns when he is posting low on his side, and leave the wing in the corner alone, unless it is Casey Morsell, the top outside shooter on the Wolfpack.

Brown might be doing exactly what he was coached to do, played perfect defense. If Jarkel makes the 3, it is not his fault. You could argue the guards should have made it harder to get the ball to Clark in the high post. You could argue Jesse should have been more aggressive defending Clark and got in his face immediately.

Things are not in black and white with zone defense. Defenders need to make informed decisions in a split second based on who is where and what their skill sets are.

It is a complex equation and no one should expect some outsider grading game film to be able to make informed decisions on responsibility for defensive gaffes.

Yes, there will be some things that are obvious, but a lot of the grading is going to be a best guess, where the guessing is not going to be very informed.
 
You can go to the website.

I did. And I couldn’t find, at first try, how the numbers are developed. Just words with no math.
 
I think the numbers for performance on offense have meaning and are worth looking at.

In my opinion, the defensive performance numbers for a zone team have always been and continue to be essentially meaningless.

They say JGIII is our best defensive player. I think Joe has improved defensively over time and is better defensively than many on the board think but he is at best an average defensive player.

Trying to grade players playing the 2-3 on defense is an exercise in futility. You really have to understand the 2-3, you have to understand the abilities of the players on offense and the game plan of the coaching staff to do this right.

And even if you have all that going for you, it is often unclear who is responsible for allowing the offense to score.

Example:

NC State moves the ball around the perimeter on offense, looking for a weakness. Jack Clark moves into the paint near the area where the ACC logo is. The guards do not drop down on him and remain focused on two players on the perimeter, just outside the 3 point circle.

Clark looks up, sees Jesse has moved up slightly but appears to be giving him the 13 footer he now has. He takes a dribble and steps closer to the basket. The guards remain focused on defending the perimeter. Jesse moves toward Clark and presents himself in defensive position.

Clark looks down low, where Brown is positioned to cut off a post to the low post to DJ Burns. He sees Joiner on the opposite side of the paint, covered by Chris Bell.

He sees right again and sees Jarkel Joiner uncovered deep in the right corner. He passes it to him and Joiner takes a relatively unguarded 3.

If he makes it, whose fault is it? I think a lot depends on what the staff has told Brown. The forwards (and the guards) are constantly asked to make choices and the choice they make is based on where players on offense are and what their skill set is.

The staff knows Burns has become a key part of the NC State offense and is lethal when he gets the ball in scoring position down low. They have likely told Brown to focus on Burns when he is posting low on his side, and leave the wing in the corner alone, unless it is Casey Morsell, the top outside shooter on the Wolfpack.

Brown might be doing exactly what he was coached to do, played perfect defense. If Jarkel makes the 3, it is not his fault. You could argue the guards should have made it harder to get the ball to Clark in the high post. You could argue Jesse should have been more aggressive defending Clark and got in his face immediately.

Things are not in black and white with zone defense. Defenders need to make informed decisions in a split second based on who is where and what their skill sets are.

It is a complex equation and no one should expect some outsider grading game film to be able to make informed decisions on responsibility for defensive gaffes.

Yes, there will be some things that are obvious, but a lot of the grading is going to be a best guess, where the guessing is not going to be very informed.
I don’t necessarily agree with all of that but you make fair points. I’d love to go more in depth with the disagreements but again….just can’t do it anymore

Also it does not say Joe is best defensive player. You read the chart wrong. He’s best offensive
 
I don’t necessarily agree with all of that but you make fair points. I’d love to go more in depth with the disagreements but again….just can’t do it anymore

Also it does not say Joe is best defensive player. You read the chart wrong. He’s best offensive

His defense was never good but he’s gotten a little worse??
 
You can go to the website.

Unless I misread it, reading quickly, I think it did say 0.0 is average. So the good thing is all of our players are above 0.0.
 
That's the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.

There are 363 362 D1 teams and ~4,700 players (subtracting those who no longer play due to murder charges and other crimes including hazing, etc), . Average is, uh, not great.
 
I know some folks people love to crap on analytics yet SOMEHOW ...you look at the BPR (EvanMiya.com) numbers from Jan 12th vs Feb 16th and it tells you the whole story that anyone who knows what they are watching could tell you.

"Can't start Maliq" - Welp, we start him, somehow we are now better
Bell wasn't playing D. Now it's obvious he's gotten better than the numbers show that. (still not great, but better)
Obvious stuff can be said about Benny, but no need to pile on.

I'd say the one surprise to me is Sy's offensive numbers but there definitely has been games where things move better when he comes in. Less turnovers, better shots. NOT last game, but still overall.

JAN 12th
RANKNAMEOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.081.183.27
2Joseph Girard2.130.222.35
3Justin Taylor0.911.202.10
4Maliq Brown1.170.902.06
5Judah Mintz1.590.301.90
6Symir Torrence0.640.551.19
7John Bol Ajak-0.400.900.50
8Benny Williams0.240.220.45
9Chris Bell0.19-0.010.18
10Mounir Hima-0.500.49-0.01

FEB 16th

RANKNameOBPRDBPRBPR
1Jesse Edwards2.251.133.37
2Maliq Brown1.880.862.74
3Joseph Girard2.360.172.53
4Symir Torrence1.640.472.12
5Judah Mintz1.700.322.03
6Justin Taylor1.000.501.51
7Chris Bell0.460.320.78
8John Bol Ajak-0.430.930.51
9Mounir Hima-0.280.660.38
10Benny Williams0.030.290.31

I'm very happy for Maliq. It's been clear he was efficiently productive for a while.

Reading this, not that we would be world beaters, but if we had a well-rounded small forward to go opposite Maliq, this team could potentially do some real damage.

I've been saying J4M lineup, but JT just hasn't been consistent (even tho I still think he's a better bet than Bell and should start over him), but if we just had a solid, dependable veteran wing we would be looking so much better.

Good stuff.
 
That's the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.

There are 363 362 D1 teams and ~4,700 players (subtracting those who no longer play due to murder charges and other crimes including hazing, etc), . Average is, uh, not great.

As a team no. As a player, not everyone can be great. It’s better than being below average. I don’t know how they do their math but if a player is average there has to be plenty that are below average.
 
I think the numbers for performance on offense have meaning and are worth looking at.

In my opinion, the defensive performance numbers for a zone team have always been and continue to be essentially meaningless.

They say JGIII is our best defensive player. I think Joe has improved defensively over time and is better defensively than many on the board think but he is at best an average defensive player.

Trying to grade players playing the 2-3 on defense is an exercise in futility. You really have to understand the 2-3, you have to understand the abilities of the players on offense and the game plan of the coaching staff to do this right.

And even if you have all that going for you, it is often unclear who is responsible for allowing the offense to score.

Example:

NC State moves the ball around the perimeter on offense, looking for a weakness. Jack Clark moves into the paint near the area where the ACC logo is. The guards do not drop down on him and remain focused on two players on the perimeter, just outside the 3 point circle.

Clark looks up, sees Jesse has moved up slightly but appears to be giving him the 13 footer he now has. He takes a dribble and steps closer to the basket. The guards remain focused on defending the perimeter. Jesse moves toward Clark and presents himself in defensive position.

Clark looks down low, where Brown is positioned to cut off a post to the low post to DJ Burns. He sees Joiner on the opposite side of the paint, covered by Chris Bell.

He sees right again and sees Jarkel Joiner uncovered deep in the right corner. He passes it to him and Joiner takes a relatively unguarded 3.

If he makes it, whose fault is it? I think a lot depends on what the staff has told Brown. The forwards (and the guards) are constantly asked to make choices and the choice they make is based on where players on offense are and what their skill set is.

The staff knows Burns has become a key part of the NC State offense and is lethal when he gets the ball in scoring position down low. They have likely told Brown to focus on Burns when he is posting low on his side, and leave the wing in the corner alone, unless it is Casey Morsell, the top outside shooter on the Wolfpack.

Brown might be doing exactly what he was coached to do, played perfect defense. If Jarkel makes the 3, it is not his fault. You could argue the guards should have made it harder to get the ball to Clark in the high post. You could argue Jesse should have been more aggressive defending Clark and got in his face immediately.

Things are not in black and white with zone defense. Defenders need to make informed decisions in a split second based on who is where and what their skill sets are.

It is a complex equation and no one should expect some outsider grading game film to be able to make informed decisions on responsibility for defensive gaffes.

Yes, there will be some things that are obvious, but a lot of the grading is going to be a best guess, where the guessing is not going to be very informed.

That’s why I’m such a big proponent of PFF on the football side. While I don’t think the same could be done very well in basketball, PFF, besides using stats, have analysts who actually watch every player every play and do an evaluation. They even have ex-NFL players do some of it especially the QB analysis. Looking at the chart above, does anyone really believe Sy is a better player than Judah?
 
I'm very happy for Maliq. It's been clear he was efficiently productive for a while.

Reading this, not that we would be world beaters, but if we had a well-rounded small forward to go opposite Maliq, this team could potentially do some real damage.
Man, throw Elijah on here as the SF ...
 
Man, throw Elijah on here as the SF ...

Yep, but I guess a lot of teams could say "well if we just had one good player to slot in here" they would be much better, but it really feels like we would at least be on the right side of the bubble if we had a consistently productive small forward right now.
 
Yep, but I guess a lot of teams could say "well if we just had one good player to slot in here" they would be much better, but it really feels like we would at least be on the right side of the bubble if we had a consistently productive small forward right now.
If UNC had Michael Jordan back they’d be undefeated, they’re fun hypotheticals to run
 

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