Bubble Tracker - March 6 to March 8

[jncuse]

Below is the weekend schedule.

I have expanded my bubble watch to include the following:

Cautious Bubble - These teams may not have to win any more games this year, but if they lose this weekend and game 1 of their conference tournaments, they leave themsleves susceptible if the rest of the bubble plays well or questionable committee judgment.

Bubble - These are the last seven teams in and the first 5 teams out. Only have 12 legit bubble teams right now. Every game matters for this bunch. You may note that Rutgers is in on 98% of brackets, but someone like Jerry Palm has them out. If they don't safely get in, their resume is open to scrutiny because of only 1 road win.

Bubble Busters - Three teams are playing this weekend that you want to win their conference tournament. Northern Iowa has already lost. They will certainly be discussed but will likely need the bubble to fare poorly to get in. NOTE - There are other bubble buster teams playing next week, but the list below is only for teams playing this weekend

Long Shot Bubble Teams - These are teams like Syracuse. They have to win this weekend, and at least make their conference tournament semi's or finals to have a shot at a bubble spot. The list may be missing a few teams or have a few that are still a stretch,

YELLOW SHADE = WIN
BLUE SHADE = LOSS

 

[jncuse]

Boise St coming out strong with a 21-12 lead against San Diego St.
They would definitely steal a bid if they win the MWC.

Richmond with a Q2 win over Duquesne holds steady. I actually have them in, but they will need the P5 bubble schools to play a bit below par to probably get in.

NC St with a Q3 win over Wake Forest tonight. Win does nothing really for them, except keeping them alive. They are probably going to need at least one quality win in the ACC tourney.

 

[jncuse]

One of the most intriguing bubble matchups this weekend is RUTGERS at PURDUE.

Rutgers wins they lock, but Purdue's shot goes way down. The BIG likely gets 10 teams.
Purdue wins they start to get very close to being in again. but it forces Rutgers to get a win in the BIG tournament. 11 teams becomes a decent possibility but so does only 9 teams.
Not sure what you want if you were not another bubble team.

Currently the only person that has Rutgers out is Jerry Palm. His sound argument is that no teams has got in with only two road wins since 1994 (25 years). Now Rutgers is going to try with only one road win. They are very similar to our resume in 2017, and as teams played well on the bubble that final week, our bad (two road wins) started to become a bigger story.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Awesome stuff. Of course wish su was in but still great to follow.

 

[jncuse]

San Diego St down 14 against Boise St.
Not sure if their coaching staff would be that disappointed by a loss. It would ensure they stay out west as a 2 seed with Gonzaga.

 

[Alsacs]

Question for JNCuse if UNC loses to Duke tomorrow they would be 14-17 if they somehow won the ACCT and finished 19-17 what seed would you see them getting in the NCAAT?

I think they would be a 12 or 13 seed. Can’t decide which.
When Georgia stole bid in 2008 they got a 14 seed. The lowest for a P5 team ever.

 

[orange79]

Question for JNCuse if UNC loses to Duke tomorrow they would be 14-17 if they somehow won the ACCT and finished 19-17 what seed would you see them getting in the NCAAT?

I think they would be a 12 or 13 seed. Can’t decide which.
When Georgia stole bid in 2008 they got a 14 seed. The lowest for a P5 team ever.

Obv not jncuse, but I would guess they probably end up in Dayton in a PIG game. Sure, they're only 19-17, but they won a P5 tournament with Duke, FSU, L'ville, and UVa in the mix. Just my opinion.

I don't think we have to worry about it, though.

 

[jncuse]

Based on the bracket matrix the regions are shaping up as following:

Scenario 1 - San Diego St is #1
Scenario 2 - San Diego St is #2
One little move like San Diego St losing does move around many things due to bracket rules


INDIANAPOLIS
1. Kansas / Kansas
2. Dayton / Villanova
3. Creighton / Maryland
4. Louisville / Louisville


HOUSTON
1. Baylor / Baylor
2. Florida St / Florida St
3. Maryland / Creighton
4. Kentucky / Kentucky

LOS ANGELES
1. Gonzaga / Gonzaga
2. Villanova / San Diego St
3. Michigan St / Michigan St
4. Oregon / Oregon


NEW York
1. San Diego St / Dayton
2. Seton Hall / Seton Hall
3. Duke / Duke
4. Ohio St / Ohio St


Seem fairly balanced. I think it could be argued the East would be the weakest.
Note that these regions change quickly. A team #6 on the S-Curve gets first dibs on region before team #7. If they inter-change, a few things move, and everything has to switch because of the rule that the first 3 teams in a conference cannot be in the same region.

 

[jncuse]

Question for JNCuse if UNC loses to Duke tomorrow they would be 14-17 if they somehow won the ACCT and finished 19-17 what seed would you see them getting in the NCAAT?

I think they would be a 12 or 13 seed. Can’t decide which.
When Georgia stole bid in 2008 they got a 14 seed. The lowest for a P5 team ever.

My gut instinct is a 12.

 

[Alsacs]

Obv not jncuse, but I would guess they probably end up in Dayton in a PIG game. Sure, they're only 19-17, but they won a P5 tournament with Duke, FSU, L'ville, and UVa in the mix. Just my opinion.

I don't think we have to worry about it, though.

I don’t think they would end up in Dayton as they would be an AQ not an at-large so unless they are one of the 4 worst AQs playing for 16 seeds they wouldn’t be in Dayton for the first four.

First four are the last 4 at-larges.

 

[jncuse]

Obv not jncuse, but I would guess they probably end up in Dayton in a PIG game. Sure, they're only 19-17, but they won a P5 tournament with Duke, FSU, L'ville, and UVa in the mix. Just my opinion.

I don't think we have to worry about it, though.

They would have an auto bid. Only at-large teams or 16 seeds can be in a play-in game..
I would like to put UNC as a 16 seed to get them in a play in game however.

 

[orange79]

I don’t think they would end up in Dayton as they would be an AQ not an at-large so unless they are one of the 4 worst AQs playing for 16 seeds they wouldn’t be in Dayton for the first four.

First four are the last 4 at-larges.

Forgot that. Good catch.

 

[Alsacs]

Based on the bracket matrix the regions are shaping up as following:

Scenario 1 - San Diego St is #1
Scenario 2 - San Diego St is #2
One little move like San Diego St losing does move around many things due to bracket rules


INDIANAPOLIS
1. Kansas / Kansas
2. Dayton / Villanova
3. Creighton / Maryland
4. Louisville / Louisville


HOUSTON
1. Baylor / Baylor
2. Florida St / Florida St
3. Maryland / Creighton
4. Kentucky / Kentucky

LOS ANGELES
1. Gonzaga / Gonzaga
2. Villanova / San Diego St
3. Michigan St / Michigan St
4. Oregon / Oregon


NEW York
1. San Diego St / Dayton
2. Seton Hall / Seton Hall
3. Duke / Duke
4. Ohio St / Ohio St


Seem fairly balanced. I think it could be argued the East would be the weakest.
Note that these regions change quickly. A team #6 on the S-Curve gets first dibs on region before team #7. If they inter-change, a few things move, and everything has to switch because of the rule that the first 3 teams in a conference cannot be in the same region.

I think Michigan State is too high here but I like it.
Kentucky has several bad losses as well but they beat Michigan State head to head.

Michigan State is a 4 seed.
Louisville and Duke will work up to the 3 line IMO.

 

[jncuse]

I think Michigan State is too high here but I like it.
Kentucky has several bad losses as well but they beat Michigan State head to head.

Michigan State is a 4 seed.
Louisville and Duke will work up to the 3 line IMO.

Purely using where the matrix has them... didn't put any real though into it other than following bracket guidelines.

I think the last spot on the two line, the three line, and the four line will highly fluctuate based on what happens next week.

Michigan St is currently 3.23
Louisville is 3.36
So they are very close... assuming the matrix has any real credibility of course.

 

[jncuse]

I can see scenarios where any of those teams end up as a 2 seed. (Basically winning conference tournaments.. and some help for the lower ones)

 

[jncuse]

The #1 seed watch is fairly boring this year... although they will be interesting #1 seeds in the tournament with many question marks on the floor.

Kansas/Baylor/Gonzaga seem like locks
San Diego St/Dayton will get the final #1 seed as long as one of them wins their conference tourney.

If they both lose in the conference tourney does anybody else realistically have claim to the final #1. I think the only team that might be able to put up an argument is if Florida St wins the ACC tournament.

The Big Ten and Big East conferences are the two best numbers wise, but they are not overcoming either San Diego St/Dayton with 7 or 8 loss teams.

 

[jncuse]

San Diego St is pulling away from Boise St.

Looks like it will be San Diego St vs Utah St tomorrow in the MWC Final, with Utah St fighting hard for the bid. Yes, I am basically discounting Wyoming tonight. They are 2-16 and their upset run will not continue,

 

[MSOrange]

San Diego St is pulling away from Boise St.

Looks like it will be San Diego St vs Utah St tomorrow in the MWC Final, with Utah St fighting hard for the bid. Yes, I am basically discounting Wyoming tonight. They are 2-16 and their upset run will not continue,

Hey watch it! My mom's a Wyoming grad. But yeah, they have been unwatchable this year. I'm stunned to see them win 2 games.

 

[djorange1989]

SDSU will get the last 1 seed if they win tomorrow, no matter what Dayton does. Aztecs have the three OOC beatdown wins against Creighton, Iowa and BYU, none at home. Dayton doesn’t have the quality wins that the Aztecs have. Both are damn good, for sure

 

[jdubs30]

I also think UConn could be in that long shot bubble category, so them losing to Tulane tomorrow would end their at-large chanves

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Question for JNCuse if UNC loses to Duke tomorrow they would be 14-17 if they somehow won the ACCT and finished 19-17 what seed would you see them getting in the NCAAT?

I think they would be a 12 or 13 seed. Can’t decide which.
When Georgia stole bid in 2008 they got a 14 seed. The lowest for a P5 team ever.

They may be tempted to make UNC an 11 seed to get them into a Tuesday night play in game. They can use Anthony’s injury as a reason.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don’t think they would end up in Dayton as they would be an AQ not an at-large so unless they are one of the 4 worst AQs playing for 16 seeds they wouldn’t be in Dayton for the first four.

First four are the last 4 at-larges.

Forgot about that

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So if neither Michigan State nor Maryland make the B1GT final, does the B1G have 10 teams with zero Top 3 seeds? That would be amazing.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I’ve watched Seton Hall several times and honestly, they never played well. Powell is going to be an NBA bust. Villanova looks good at times, but I can also see them losing their first game. I’m not sold on either team.

 

[Cuseball]

I’ve watched Seton Hall several times and honestly, they never played well. Powell is going to be an NBA bust. Villanova looks good at times, but I can also see them losing their first game. I’m not sold on either team.

I actually think Seton Hall will make some noise in the tournament. They have a good inside, outside threat, play good defense and have one of the better guards in the country. Powell can go cold but he can also light you up for 30. Would not be surprised to see them in a final Eight. I agree that Nova may be one and done.
cuse!