Bubble Tracker - Week of February 17 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Tracker - Week of February 17

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jncuse

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Updated to Include Results up to end of Tuesday
Wins in Yellow
Losses in Blue

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I see that through various postings that some are still interested in this, so I have compiled the chart of teams getting in on less than 95% of the brackets in the current matrix, and more than 5% on the matrix. Sort of a focused bubble.

We are probably 3 consecutive wins away from some minor consideration again. We still have to accomplish a lot to get back onto the bubble and its a long shot.

Why am I doing this:
1) As I mentioned some still interested in following other teams
2) At minimum its interesting to follow on a national level whether Syracuse is involved or not
3) There are some here that clearly oversell what a bubble team looks like right now which I hope my comparatives will help out. Doesn't mean we don't have a lot of work to do.

Will post a few comments later today regarding Syracuse and other teams.
Some of those teams below the line have massive games this week to turn it around (how often does VCU have two Q1 games in 1 week?)
 

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So you’re saying there’s a chance?
 
Not going to bother comparing us directly to other teams as of now, until we win the next 3 games. But if you look at the resume I had below for Syracuse if they go 6-0 or 5-1 to end this season, the road wins would be the key shining factor... our NET would probably be in line with other bubble teams, and are quality wins would be a couple less then most non BIG Teams)


TONIGHT (TUESDAY) - There are 3 key Q1 games for teams. Cheer for the home teams.

Purdue at Wisconsin (7:00)
VCU at Dayton (8:30)
Arkansas at Florida (7:00
 
If Pitt beats fsu how bad would that look on us? Seeing we couldn’t hold em off and then they lose to shitty Pitt?
 
If Pitt beats fsu how bad would that look on us? Seeing we couldn’t hold em off and then they lose to shitty Pitt?
We beat Pitt. FSU wasn’t a bad loss. It doesn’t matter. It’s all about metrics
 
We beat Pitt. FSU wasn’t a bad loss. It doesn’t matter. It’s all about metrics
I figured that’s what everybody would say. Just still gets to me. Because it would have shut everybody up around me because I live in Florida and they love fsu because Florida isn’t “ranked” just sucks to know what could have been. More so personal preference.
 
Correction to the above -- Dayton is playing at VCU.
 
well Purdue is now only a game over .500 they may full under .500 and be off the bubble soon.
 
Updated for today's games,
0-3 overall. Not unexpected, all teams were underdogs.

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10 Games on Wednesday

(Bubble Team First)
Virginia vs Boston College (Q3)
Cincinnati vs UCF (Q3)
Indiana at Minnesota (Q1)
Georgetown vs Providence (Q2)
Utah St vs Wyoming (Q4)
Richmond vs George Mason (Q3)
Miss St vs South Carolina (Q2)
Alabama vs Texas AM (Q3)
Minnesota vs Indiana (Q2)
NC St vs Duke (Q1)

I expect the bubble to have a positive win/loss record tomorrow, but most of the wins will not be differnece makers. (Many Q3/Q4 games).

As with many BIG games who do you cheer for? I think you go for Minny so there is only a Q2 win in the game, and not a Q1 win.

The one team that can really make a big move on Wednesday is NC St (can it beat Duke at home). Great opportunity for a big home win.
 
well Purdue is now only a game over .500 they may full under .500 and be off the bubble soon.

Even at a game below .500, I guess technically they are still on the bubble because they are at a 2 game win streak of possibly getting in.

But all of Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota need to be very careful. The best we can hope for is those teams start losing some of their home games as well.
 
we need some wins first , but its crazy that B10 league is full of so many good home records and bad road records.

Minn-if they split the rest and lose in the b10 falls to 15-16 and out.

Purdue could easily go 1-3 and have the same fate.

Indiana is just such and avg team and will get in a 8-12 in B10.

thats all our fault for not closing games
 
Well doing this exercise purely from a National Perspective at this point. Pretty easy to update the table for the results so will do it for this week. Not sure if I will do a full update next week because as I said at this point Syracuse will not be part of it.

That being said tonight was a fairly crazy night on the bubble:
1) NC St got a massive win at Duke that brings them close to the line again.
2) Two teams had bad losses that were not expected - Cincy and Alabama
3) Minny could not hold court against Indiana at home, and they are in massive trouble at this point.

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.
 
I'm not a Rutgers hater but I could see them landing on the bubble in a few weeks. They may not win another game through their conference tournament - their schedule is very difficult from here on out.
 
I'm not a Rutgers hater but I could see them landing on the bubble in a few weeks. They may not win another game through their conference tournament - their schedule is very difficult from here on out.

I agree that Rutgers as a consensus 8 seed before yesterday has some work to do. There are probably teams as high as the 6 seed that can probably lose out and slide out of the tourney.

The one positive for them is that every loss is only a Q1 loss or a Q1 win, so they will fall more slowly after losses. I think one win would probably squeeze them in. But as you noted 3 road games against tourney teams, and Maryland at home. There is nothing easy there especially since they only have 1 road win.

That would be a brutal way to end the season. Very Rutgers like.
 
PAC-12 Thursday

The 3 bubble teams in the PAC-12 all have Q1 opportunities.
USC at Colorado
Arizona St vs Oregon
Stanford at Washington

One could argue that this is what hurts teams in the ACC this year. A higher proportion of the Q1 teams are elite, while a conference like the PAC-12 has more middle of the pack Q1 teams that may be easier to beat.

The counter point is that both Louisville and Duke have been giving up losses in reason weeks.
 
If it makes anybody feel better, that loss by Georgetown at home to Providence really hurt them even it was only a Q2. They are now 15-11, and like Rutgers discussed above don't have an easy schedule down the stretch (although not as hard as Rutgers)

4 of their last 5 games are Q1, and Xavier as a Q2 at home is not easy. They also don't have the room to spare that Rutgers has. 2-3 against those teams would put them right on the line.

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It blows my mind that winning at Depaul would still be considered a Q1 win -- they are sliding though so I suspect they may fall below Q1 status. The Big East like the Big Ten has most teams in Q1 or Q2 because the middle of the pack extends fairly deep due to their out of conference play.
 
A good night for the Pac-12 in that 2 of its 3 bubble teams picked up Q1 wins last night. Results for the first game of the week below:

Overall the bubble went 9-9 in the first set of games this week Average, That included 5 Q1 wins which is good, but 2 bad losses as well.

Biggest Winners and Losers so far this week:
Winner - NC St (beat Duke), PAC-12 (games broke right to maximize teams)
Loser - Cincy (Bad Loss), Georgetown, Alabama


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kicking myself for not paying attention to the schedule. NC St. is a fellow mafia school that needed the victory so much more than Duke. Swofford told the refs call it down the middle. should've bet the pack.
 
Providence is trashing Marquette... by 14 and Tennessee beating auburn by 6 right now
 
How does everyone feel about Providence's chances of getting a berth? I ask because I noticed they are 500 to 1 at my sports book to win it all. Might be worth putting a few bucks on that. They have been playing very well lately.
 
Updated for today's games.

This weekend the bubble teams are 4-7. The worst 8 on this list that have played are 2-6. So bottom of the bubble has taken a bit of it

The big losers this week are:

- Georgetown (0-2 this week) - After losing to 1-13 Depaul, they have clearly moved out.
- Purdue (0-2 this week) - They can't continue to lose games, even if they are Q1.
- VCU (0-2) - They were on the far borders and needed a Q1 to get back into the race. They lost both games, and will have a hard time bouncing back against their limited schedule.

The big winners this week are:
- Arizona St (2-0), solidified there spot in bracket (not yet a lock) with a Q1+Q2 win.
- Providence (2-0), while they were not on the near bubble entering this week, a 2-0 week including 2 Q1 wins has them rapidly climbing. They could well be the last team in next week. This mornings matrix had them on 9 of the 35 newest brackets. This was before their latest Q1 win today.


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