Bubble Tracker week of February 24

jncuse

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UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY - This week's table is now posted below.

This Week

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So far this week the teams are 7-5. 3-2 above the line, and 4-3 below the line. Both are decent.

So far this big loser this week is Rutgers. Coming back from 21 down tonigth, A1 road win in their grasp at Penn St..

There are some teams on here with a lot of bad already on their resume. For example CIncy and Providence bad losses, the marquee win for some teams

The top teams kac a martuqq ei


Last Week

Here are last week results. If you look under the brown columns you will see the movement of teams from one week to the next (i.e. where they were on the matrix last week and where they are this week in terms of %). In purple I highlighted the big movers

Overall there was alot of carnage in terms of the last 3 in, and the teams out last week. Overall they went 9-12 which allowed teams like NC St and Providence to move in to the tourney fairly rapidly.

Big Winners Last Week:
Providence
moved from less than 5% to 60% on the back of two Q1 wins. At less than 5% they were not even on the watch last week, but two Q1 wins could move you up quickly if you are not far off the bubble line.
NC St, went 1-1, but with the one against Duke, they moved from 8% all the way to 77^
Arizona St solidified there spot with a Q1 & Q2 and won't be on the bubble line this week.
Indiana with two Q1 wins goes from 79% to 99% and will not be on this weeks bubble line.
Utah St moved from 58% to 92% by literally doing nothing. Only getting a Q4 win.

Bog Losers Last Week

Georgetown & Purdue
- Both teams have somewhat similar resumes. They have lost both games and the losses are accumulating. They both fell by over 50% and are now below the line



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jncuse

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We have talked about how the metrics really help the BIG this year because of their middle depth (allows for more Q1 wins). The impact is actually more profound in the Big East.

The following is the % of teams in a conference that have a NET over 75. Why is 75 so key?
- Means that every win is either a Q1 or Q2 win
- Every road win is Q1 win
- You can't have a bad loss to a team below 75.

Big East - 10 out of 10 (100%) -
Big Ten - 12 out of 14 (86%)
Big 12 - 7 out of 10 (70%)
Pac 12 - 8 out of 12 (67%), and one of the others at #76.
SEC - 9 out of 14 (64%)
ACC - 8 out of 15 (53%)
American - 5 out of 12 (42%)

The Big East is 100%, which i doubt has ever happened. So as noted above.
Every single win in the BE is Q1 or Q2, and you can't have a bad loss. It's a great advantage of having an extremely deep conference.

It has resulted in some peculiar resumes similar to the B10.

Take for example Georgetown at 15-12.
They have 4 Q1 wins, 9 Q1+Q2 wins, and no bad losses. I'm not sure that combination has ever missed the tourney. But when you have 18 conference games that are all Q1 or Q2, that 9 wins is not really that great.

Providence is 16-12.
But they already have 7 Q1 wins. I don't know if any team has ever missed the tourney with 7 Q1 wins (or its predecessor top 50 wins), but this is what happens when you win go 9-6 in a conference like this.

They also have the WORST out of conference performance of any bubble team in the last 20 years. I have 100% comfort saying this. 6 overall losses and 4 bad losses... and not just losses like Syracuse did this year. These were losses to NET #143, #159, #177 (at home), and #288. In fact a loss to #288 is probably the worst loss by a bubble team in the past 10 years,
 

RandygoCuse

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What happens to Rutgers if they lose out in the regular season but win a tournament game?
 

Alsacs

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I mean this info just shows we aren’t even on the bubble right now.

Beating Pitt/UNC/BC/Miami won’t do it either.
We are better getting the 6/7/8 seed if we want resume win potential. As beating 2 of UL/Duke/FSU would mean more than beating UVA and the 1 seed.
 

gilardino

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We have talked about how the metrics really help the BIG this year because of their middle depth (allows for more Q1 wins). The impact is actually more profound in the Big East.

The following is the % of teams in a conference that have a NET over 75. Why is 75 so key?
- Means that every win is either a Q1 or Q2 win
- Every road win is Q1 win
- You can't have a bad loss to a team below 75.

Big East - 10 out of 10 (100%) -
Big Ten - 12 out of 14 (86%)
Big 12 - 7 out of 10 (70%)
Pac 12 - 8 out of 12 (67%), and one of the others at #76.
SEC - 9 out of 14 (64%)
ACC - 8 out of 15 (53%)
American - 5 out of 12 (42%)

The Big East is 100%, which i doubt has ever happened. So as noted above.
Every single win in the BE is Q1 or Q2, and you can't have a bad loss. It's a great advantage of having an extremely deep conference.

It has resulted in some peculiar resumes similar to the B10.

Take for example Georgetown at 15-12.
They have 4 Q1 wins, 9 Q1+Q2 wins, and no bad losses. I'm not sure that combination has ever missed the tourney. But when you have 18 conference games that are all Q1 or Q2, that 9 wins is not really that great.

Providence is 16-12.
But they already have 7 Q1 wins. I don't know if any team has ever missed the tourney with 7 Q1 wins (or its predecessor top 50 wins), but this is what happens when you win go 9-6 in a conference like this.

They also have the WORST out of conference performance of any bubble team in the last 20 years. I have 100% comfort saying this. 6 overall losses and 4 bad losses... and not just losses like Syracuse did this year. These were losses to NET #143, #159, #177 (at home), and #288. In fact a loss to #288 is probably the worst loss by a bubble team in the past 10 years,
does cuse have any chance to make the dance? If so what needs to happen. How many wins? etc
 

orangecuse

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We win the ACC tournament

There's no doubt whatsoever, IMO, this is the only way we dance this year. :( Who knows, perhaps come Saturday night March 14th, there's a lot of true bubble teams agonizing & uttering...really Syracuse, thanks for nothing. ;)
 

gilardino

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would wining our last 4 regular season games and winning Wednesday and Thursday get us in?
 

jncuse

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Some near chaos in the B10 tonight, but it ended up working well for the rest of the bubble.

Rutgers lost at Penn St. That road win would have locked them in to the tourney IMO. They were down 21 at the half, but came all the way back to take the lead in the last minute. But Penn St hit a late three to regain the lead.

Minnesota had a 17 point lead vs Maryland. It would have been a huge win for them to get back to 14-13 and back in the discussion. But instead Maryland came back and won on a near buzzer beater.
 

jncuse

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What happens to Rutgers if they lose out in the regular season but win a tournament game?

If it is a quality win in the tournament (most BIG games are going to be Q1 or Q2) I think it might put them in the tournament barely. If they had won tonight on the road at a 4/5 seed like Penn St it probably would have got them in. They need at least one more win and there is nothing easy left for them.
 

jncuse

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I mean this info just shows we aren’t even on the bubble right now.

Beating Pitt/UNC/BC/Miami won’t do it either.
We are better getting the 6/7/8 seed if we want resume win potential. As beating 2 of UL/Duke/FSU would mean more than beating UVA and the 1 seed.

Winning the next 4 (or 3 after tonight) will at least close the gap to a degree, so we can at least more reasonably measure what we need to do after that to catch up. Right now the gap is so large that it's hard to do with any precision.

This is much a "national View" exercise until that point.
 

jncuse

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does cuse have any chance to make the dance? If so what needs to happen. How many wins? etc

AS an at-large, before tonight I think they had to win 6 of their next 7 games (5 of the next 6 after tonight) then we may be in or out.

As I said above its very hard to measure how far behind we are right now. Win the next 3 games, we certainly will not be in, but the gap will have closed and less games will remain for everybody. I think only at that point will we be able to make solid estimates as to what we need to do.
 

orangenauburn

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Quite simply, win next three and hope you have a great run in ACCT and sneak in three wins there.

Then hope for attrition above us.

At Clemson and at Florida State are two big misses, unfortunately.
 

Consigliere

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Last night's win bumped us to 59 in the Net. We are also 51 in both pomeroy and bpi. If we win out by acct we may be in the 40s across all. We also would have one of the best road records of any of the bubble teams.

At 59 in the NET we can at least see a path to the tournament. The 58 ahead of us come from 13 different conferences meaning there will be at least 19 teams below us in the Net that will get automatic bids. With 68 bids and figuring our rank of 59 plus the 19 auto-qualifiers effectively dropping us to 78, we need to jump 10 teams to be able to make a case. Three teams above us could very well end up with losing records.
- Minnesota is currently at 45 but is 13-14 with games against Indiana and Wisconsin (plus Nebraska left.).
- Purdue is at 37 and is 14-14 with Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers left
- Georgetown is at 58 and is 15-13 with Xavier, Creighton and Villanova yet.

Now we can look at the reumes of other the other teams we would need to pass and start to make a case.
- Notre Dame has only 1 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins
- Providence has 2 Q3 and 2 Q4 losses.
- Alabama has only 1 Q1 win against Auburn and offsets that with a Q4 loss.
- certainly some other possibilities out there as well

I'm not saying we're a bubble team yet, but if we continue to take care of business and see a couple of other teams that are on the bubble stumble it may not take an ACC Tournament Championship to get in.
 
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jncuse

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Not to say we won't have big holes if when we win the next 4 games and start to at least get in the discussion, but the teams that are currently the last in all have some significant issues.

Wichita St - 2 Q1 wins (at Oklahoma St and at UConn). Both could end up Q2.
Rhode Island- One Q1 win, at VCU (non tourney team)
USC - Only two Q1 wins
Rutgers - One Road Win
Oklahoma - Two Road Wins
Cincy - 4 bad losses
Providence - 4 really bad losses (including two Q4 losses)
NC St - 3 bad losses


Providence probably has the most unique resume in the last 10 years. So much good, and so much really bad.
 

upperdeck

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not that it means much but if you look at the ESPN BPI we are ahead of almost all the teams we are trying to catch in the bubble. really just one of the those game we couldnt get is the difference.

if you were a gambler and we played anyone on that list in a neutral site game we would probably be favored over all of them
 

Orangezoo

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How much further I wonder does UVA need to climb for that to be our signature win? At 20-7 if they can beat Duke at home I'm guessing they are soundly back in the top 25. If they win out and end up 23-7 finishing with wins vs Duke and Ville then they go top 15 maybe even hover around top 10 again. Now I don't see them anything of that sort but from a numbers game that would have to then sit as our signature win.
 

jdubs30

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If we had won one of the games we blew (VaTech, ND, NC State, Clemson) and put away FSU, I’d feel we’d be fairly comfortably in. That’s put us 18-10, 11-6 in the ACC with 6 or 7 road wins including a top 20 road win.

That’s how close we are
 

Orangezoo

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If we had won one of the games we blew (VaTech, ND, NC State, Clemson) and put away FSU, I’d feel we’d be fairly comfortably in. That’s put us 18-10, 11-6 in the ACC with 6 or 7 road wins including a top 20 road win.

That’s how close we are

Clemson, ND and NC State hurt the most besides FSU. Feel like they were gifts to our opponents. FSU game we caught them sleeping and they woke back up. Not sure it was as much putting them away as they wrangled the game back from us.

At 19-9 without FSU we would be in great shape too.
 

jdubs30

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How much further I wonder does UVA need to climb for that to be our signature win? At 20-7 if they can beat Duke at home I'm guessing they are soundly back in the top 25. If they win out and end up 23-7 finishing with wins vs Duke and Ville then they go top 15 maybe even hover around top 10 again. Now I don't see them anything of that sort but from a numbers game that would have to then sit as our signature win.
UVA is 47 in KenPom, only 4 spots Ahead of us. So they still need to do a lot
 

jdubs30

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Clemson, ND and NC State hurt the most besides FSU. Feel like they were gifts to our opponents. FSU game we caught them sleeping and they woke back up. Not sure it was as much putting them away as they wrangled the game back from us.

At 19-9 without FSU we would be in great shape too.
Definitely.
 

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