arbitragegls
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Its bubble watch time and the BE is not looking so good (either is the ACC with only Duke and UNC looking like locks). Article does conference by conference...here is the look at BE. Got to think that Notre Dame, Uconn, Marquette, GT, and WVU will be in...doubting Cincy and Louisville...
Big East Conference
Teams that should be in: Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work left to do: Connecticut, Louisville, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Syracuse has slumped a bit lately but has maintained its winning ways all the same, and if the Orange right the ship -- getting center Fab Melo back would be nice -- they'll remain on the gilded path to a No. 1 seed. The rest of the Big East isn't nearly as straightforward. Georgetown and Marquette are in pretty good shape, but West Virginia sure is making things interesting, especially after Monday's home loss to a suddenly competitive Pitt team). And the rest of the conference is a jumbled mess. We may see more movement here than in any other Bubble Watch subsection this season. Should be fun.
Marquette [18-4 (7-2), RPI: 10, SOS: 32] In each of the past two seasons, Marquette was bound to the bubble, its apparent fate waxing and waning with each win or loss. No more. The Golden Eagles are in plum position this season thanks in large part to their 11-2 nonconference start, which included a massive win at rival Wisconsin. The only sub-top-50 loss came at LSU, which isn't terrible. There's almost no chance this team misses the tournament, and absolutely zero chance Buzz Williams and Co. will spend any time reprising the sweaty bubble worries of the past two campaigns.
Georgetown [16-4 (6-3), RPI: 13, SOS: 35] Given this program's propensity for late-calendar meltdowns in recent seasons, it's no wonder Georgetown fans seem to be constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Watch can offer no predictions to ease that anxiety, but it does know this much: The Hoyas aren't going to miss the tournament. They already have five wins over teams ranked No. 35 or higher in the RPI, they don't have anything resembling a bad loss (especially as Pitt comes around), and their computer numbers are solid all around.
West Virginia [15-8 (5-5), RPI: 29, SOS: 7] The Mountaineers have taken a couple of tough defeats in the past week, including a brutal loss at Syracuse, which came as the result of a missed goaltending call in the final moments. But the fundamentals of this squad's NCAA tournament chances remain strong. Why? Bob Huggins tests his teams, and this season has been no different: WVU boasts a top-10 strength of schedule, a top-20 nonconference SOS and a top-20 RPI. What's more, it has already played the worst of its schedule. With Kevin Jones putting up an All-America season, it seems safe to say WVU will be there in March.
Connecticut [14-6 (4-4), RPI: 26, SOS: 9] A strange resume for a strange team. The talent is there; the truly impressive wins are not. The Huskies own three top-50 victories, two of which came at home (Harvard, WVU), one of which came in the Bahamas (over FSU) in November. And there are bad losses (at Rutgers, at Tennessee) here, too. The computer numbers are decent and UConn will surely receive credit for its impressive nonconference SOS, and, yeah, by March, this team will almost certainly be in the tournament. But right now the Huskies are 4-4 in the Big East and still very much struggling, and nothing is guaranteed.
Louisville [17-5 (5-4), RPI: 27, SOS: 54] The Cardinals began the season ranked in the top 10, which was always too high. This is a good but not great team that has been hampered by injuries for much of the season, and those injuries certainly hampered Rick Pitino's team when it dropped five of seven from Dec. 28 to Jan. 14 -- including a 90-59 stinker to Providence (Providence!). But Louisville has bounced back with three straight wins, including Saturday's victory at Seton Hall. As long as that forward momentum remains, this team will be in the tournament.
Seton Hall [15-6 (4-5), RPI: 31, SOS: 18] A few weeks ago, the Pirates might have belonged in the "should be in" category. Thanks to the resurgent play of Herb Pope, the Pirates went 11-1 in nonconference play and opened the Big East with a 4-1 record that included wins over West Virginia and UConn. But the past two weeks have been problematic. Four straight losses later -- and with just those two top-50 victories -- the Hall's resume is starting to look more and more questionable. The Pirates' next three games (at Marquette, at UConn, at Rutgers, Pitt) will be crucial.
Notre Dame [14-8 (6-3), RPI: 61, SOS: 40] Like Cincinnati, Notre Dame is a team that started slow, lost a couple of winnable nonconference games but has turned it on in Big East play. Since then, Notre Dame -- without star Tim Abromaitis, let's not forget -- has won on the road at Louisville, Seton Hall and UConn. It also beat Syracuse at home. Will those wins be enough to overcome pedestrian RPI and SOS figures? Maybe, maybe not. Best advice for the Irish: Just keep winning. Obvious but true.
Cincinnati [15-7 (5-4), RPI: 98, SOS: 168] Now here's an intriguing scenario: Over the past month, Cincinnati has emerged as one of the better teams in the Big East, capable of taking down UConn in Storrs, hanging with Syracuse for 40 minutes, toppling Georgetown in D.C., and nearly beating West Virginia in Morgantown. But Saturday's loss at Rutgers didn't look good, and neither do UC's numbers: The RPI is hovering around 100, the overall strength of schedule is low and the nonconference SOS -- which the selection committee has paid special attention to in recent years -- is horrendous. Plus, there's that loss to Presbyterian. Ouch. This team still has a lot of work to do before season's end. Locks
Big East Conference
Teams that should be in: Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work left to do: Connecticut, Louisville, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Syracuse has slumped a bit lately but has maintained its winning ways all the same, and if the Orange right the ship -- getting center Fab Melo back would be nice -- they'll remain on the gilded path to a No. 1 seed. The rest of the Big East isn't nearly as straightforward. Georgetown and Marquette are in pretty good shape, but West Virginia sure is making things interesting, especially after Monday's home loss to a suddenly competitive Pitt team). And the rest of the conference is a jumbled mess. We may see more movement here than in any other Bubble Watch subsection this season. Should be fun.Marquette [18-4 (7-2), RPI: 10, SOS: 32] In each of the past two seasons, Marquette was bound to the bubble, its apparent fate waxing and waning with each win or loss. No more. The Golden Eagles are in plum position this season thanks in large part to their 11-2 nonconference start, which included a massive win at rival Wisconsin. The only sub-top-50 loss came at LSU, which isn't terrible. There's almost no chance this team misses the tournament, and absolutely zero chance Buzz Williams and Co. will spend any time reprising the sweaty bubble worries of the past two campaigns.
Georgetown [16-4 (6-3), RPI: 13, SOS: 35] Given this program's propensity for late-calendar meltdowns in recent seasons, it's no wonder Georgetown fans seem to be constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Watch can offer no predictions to ease that anxiety, but it does know this much: The Hoyas aren't going to miss the tournament. They already have five wins over teams ranked No. 35 or higher in the RPI, they don't have anything resembling a bad loss (especially as Pitt comes around), and their computer numbers are solid all around.
West Virginia [15-8 (5-5), RPI: 29, SOS: 7] The Mountaineers have taken a couple of tough defeats in the past week, including a brutal loss at Syracuse, which came as the result of a missed goaltending call in the final moments. But the fundamentals of this squad's NCAA tournament chances remain strong. Why? Bob Huggins tests his teams, and this season has been no different: WVU boasts a top-10 strength of schedule, a top-20 nonconference SOS and a top-20 RPI. What's more, it has already played the worst of its schedule. With Kevin Jones putting up an All-America season, it seems safe to say WVU will be there in March.
Connecticut [14-6 (4-4), RPI: 26, SOS: 9] A strange resume for a strange team. The talent is there; the truly impressive wins are not. The Huskies own three top-50 victories, two of which came at home (Harvard, WVU), one of which came in the Bahamas (over FSU) in November. And there are bad losses (at Rutgers, at Tennessee) here, too. The computer numbers are decent and UConn will surely receive credit for its impressive nonconference SOS, and, yeah, by March, this team will almost certainly be in the tournament. But right now the Huskies are 4-4 in the Big East and still very much struggling, and nothing is guaranteed.
Louisville [17-5 (5-4), RPI: 27, SOS: 54] The Cardinals began the season ranked in the top 10, which was always too high. This is a good but not great team that has been hampered by injuries for much of the season, and those injuries certainly hampered Rick Pitino's team when it dropped five of seven from Dec. 28 to Jan. 14 -- including a 90-59 stinker to Providence (Providence!). But Louisville has bounced back with three straight wins, including Saturday's victory at Seton Hall. As long as that forward momentum remains, this team will be in the tournament.
Seton Hall [15-6 (4-5), RPI: 31, SOS: 18] A few weeks ago, the Pirates might have belonged in the "should be in" category. Thanks to the resurgent play of Herb Pope, the Pirates went 11-1 in nonconference play and opened the Big East with a 4-1 record that included wins over West Virginia and UConn. But the past two weeks have been problematic. Four straight losses later -- and with just those two top-50 victories -- the Hall's resume is starting to look more and more questionable. The Pirates' next three games (at Marquette, at UConn, at Rutgers, Pitt) will be crucial.
Notre Dame [14-8 (6-3), RPI: 61, SOS: 40] Like Cincinnati, Notre Dame is a team that started slow, lost a couple of winnable nonconference games but has turned it on in Big East play. Since then, Notre Dame -- without star Tim Abromaitis, let's not forget -- has won on the road at Louisville, Seton Hall and UConn. It also beat Syracuse at home. Will those wins be enough to overcome pedestrian RPI and SOS figures? Maybe, maybe not. Best advice for the Irish: Just keep winning. Obvious but true.
Cincinnati [15-7 (5-4), RPI: 98, SOS: 168] Now here's an intriguing scenario: Over the past month, Cincinnati has emerged as one of the better teams in the Big East, capable of taking down UConn in Storrs, hanging with Syracuse for 40 minutes, toppling Georgetown in D.C., and nearly beating West Virginia in Morgantown. But Saturday's loss at Rutgers didn't look good, and neither do UC's numbers: The RPI is hovering around 100, the overall strength of schedule is low and the nonconference SOS -- which the selection committee has paid special attention to in recent years -- is horrendous. Plus, there's that loss to Presbyterian. Ouch. This team still has a lot of work to do before season's end. Locks
