Bubble Watch - Week of March 2nd

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Unfortunately this is not for Syracuse right now, but for those that still want to follow it at a national level. They can post here.

Summary of last week below.
You will note there is a lot more yellow than Blue. That means the bubble did good they went 20-10 in term of teams I was tracking.
And in reality UCLA and Texas made rapid ascension up as well with 2 wins, so its arguably 24-10. When you add that many of these wins were P5 teams (Q1+Q2 wins), it is hard for a team on the outside to gain much ground (for example even if we had beat UNC).

Teams highlighted in Pink are those trending up or down from the beginning of the week.

Last Week's Winners:
A number of P5+BE are trending in the right direction now
USC, Oklahoma, Providence, all had strong 2-0 weeks and Q1 weeks, to really solidify their resume (up from around 75% to close to 100% of the brackets)
Stanford went from 42% (first out) to 83% (4th last in(, on the srength of a 2-0 record and a Q1 win.
UCLA and Texas were in on less than 5% of the brackets last week, but after solid good weeks, go up to 55% (second last team in) and 20% (fifth team out) respectively.

Last Week's Losers
MID MAJORS -
as you can note above the big winners are all P5+BE teams that went 2-0 including quality and upset wins. Contra to this Rhode Island and Utah St had upset losses.

Richmond goes 2-0, but with the Power Teams moving up, they actually lose ground (38% to 26%)

There was a few weeks earlier in conference season where the top 25 was basically winning 85% of their games. This reduced the strength of the bubble in terms of power conferences, but it shifted in the past few weeks as they suffered a number of losses. That really hurts the mid-majors especially when they lose as well.


1583194321164.png
 

jdubs30

Living Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2011
Messages
12,680
Like
21,698
NC State holding strong thus far in Cameron
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Not enough time for a full table this week.

But at the start of the week:

7th last in - Providence - 96%
6th last in - Wichita St - 95%
5th last in - Rutgers 93%
4th last in - Stanford 83%
3rd last in - Utah St 56%
2nd Last In - UCLA 55%
Last In - Cincy 54%

First Out - Rhode Island - 52%
Second Out - NC St - 40%
Third Out - Richmond - 26%
Fourth Out - Miss St - 21%
Fifth Out - Texas - 20%
Sixth Out - Purdue - 9%
Seventh Out - Arkansas 5%

In terms of how I feel about these teams. I think Rutgers is overrated. The 1 road win is really going to hurt them out.

I have them as my current last team out if I was doing a bracket.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
NC State holding strong thus far in Cameron

They are still up 7. Would be a heck of a win. I know not many not like NC St, but if they could sweep Duke this year I would find some amusement in it.

Sometimes the bubble teams stagnate at this time of year as a group and teams seem to get in by the back door This year it is certainly not like that. Teams are playing their way into spots right now.
 

jdubs30

Living Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2011
Messages
12,680
Like
21,698
They are still up 7. Would be a heck of a win. I know not many not like NC St, but if they could sweep Duke this year I would find some amusement in it.

Sometimes the bubble teams stagnate at this time of year as a group and teams seem to get in by the back door This year it is certainly not like that. Teams are playing their way into spots right now.
Could not agree more. I was of the strong opinion that if we held on to 2 of those VaTech/ND/Clemson losses we’d be in great shape. But the more I look at it, I don’t think it would have helped a whole lot. We would have 6 road wins (and no bad losses assuming we beat VaTech at home) but other than that our resume was so blah this year.

Got crushed by every decent OOC we had.
We weren’t good at home.
We couldn’t beat anyone on top of the ACC.

Even if we beat Clemson and VaTech it doesn’t improve our overall profile a whole lot. We were lucky to catch UVA when we did...and what else? Colgate? A potential win at Clemson? At ND?

We’ve been screwed in the past (I admit I’m biased!). But right now, the only way I’d be mad if we don’t get in is if we make it to the ACC title game, while beating UVA and Louisville along the way then lose to Duke/FSU in a close one. Even if we get to the ACC semis I wouldn’t be upset if we got left out
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Only game of significance tonight:

Duke ran away from NC St 88-69.

NC St only game left is against Wake at home. It;s going to be very difficult for them to feel safe entering Selection Sunday unless they make a nice run in the ACCT. That being said beat Wake and win their first ACCT game they will be in the discussion (but matrix would have them out... matrix is never 100% accurate though, just a good guide)
 

Newhouser

All American
Joined
Jan 20, 2015
Messages
4,487
Like
6,945
Could not agree more. I was of the strong opinion that if we held on to 2 of those VaTech/ND/Clemson losses we’d be in great shape. But the more I look at it, I don’t think it would have helped a whole lot. We would have 6 road wins (and no bad losses assuming we beat VaTech at home) but other than that our resume was so blah this year.

Got crushed by every decent OOC we had.
We weren’t good at home.
We couldn’t beat anyone on top of the ACC.

Even if we beat Clemson and VaTech it doesn’t improve our overall profile a whole lot. We were lucky to catch UVA when we did...and what else? Colgate? A potential win at Clemson? At ND?

We’ve been screwed in the past (I admit I’m biased!). But right now, the only way I’d be mad if we don’t get in is if we make it to the ACC title game, while beating UVA and Louisville along the way then lose to Duke/FSU in a close one. Even if we get to the ACC semis I wouldn’t be upset if we got left out
At FSU was our season - if we hold on there I think the rest of the season turns out differently. Kids know where they stand.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
At FSU was our season - if we hold on there I think the rest of the season turns out differently. Kids know where they stand.

We would still be out with that win.
But I think what you are implying is that losing that game, created such an uphill battle that it made harder to even win the next games. And i agree. You see fans have wild swings after losses, and while players are generally much more controlled they will still have swings.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Looks like Rutgers will finally make the NCAA tournament after a massive victory over the current #2 seed Maryland. Although the fact remains that they still only have one road win which would be the worst ever by an at-large. I don't even know if anyone ever got in with 2 (in 2017 when we had 2 I know it would have been the lowest but not sure if we would have tied anybody)

If the bubble plays well down the stretch and there are bubble busters they might not want to be in that discussion for a final spot. Only one road win can become a point of focus if they are in the last few teams being discussed.

They probably get in at this point, but probably want to win one more just to feel 100% safe. It would be an amusing scenario to see them lose out, and get squeezed out when they thought they were pretty safe, (this win could be like our win against Duke in late 2017 which made some fairly comfortable but things broke down around Syracuse in tourney week)
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Q3 win for Cincy at South Florida - they are last in per the matrix, and a nuisance win will not move things.

Q3 win for Richmond vs Davidson - currently the third team out, this type of win doesn't do much unless the bubble is doing bad around you.

Mississippi St lost at Q2 South Carolina (MIss St was the fith team out (22% of brackets) Not a bad resume less, but a bad loss because they are basically running out of any time to catch up.
 

jdubs30

Living Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2011
Messages
12,680
Like
21,698
If the ACC/SEC get only 4 teams and the AAC implodes and only sends Houston it’ll be interesting to see where the committee takes teams from
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
If the ACC/SEC get only 4 teams and the AAC implodes and only sends Houston it’ll be interesting to see where the committee takes teams from

The A-10 has a couple teams (Richmond and Rhode Island) that could benefit.

Right now the Big10 looks like its going to get 10 teams in the tournament with Rutgers winning tonight.
Purdue is also winning at Iowa so they will be moving into the last 4 out if they win -- and the scenario of 11 BIG teams in tournament becomes plausible.

If Purdue beats Rutgers on the weekend, and gets one more win in the BIG against any of those 10 teams that are currently in, that could be enough for them.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
19,599
Like
17,018
anyone who watches the B10 and thinks they have 11 tourney worthy teams is crazy no matter what the metrics say.. they have 3 teams playing well then a bunch of avg teams who just shock each other with good shooting nights. wish we could have had a couple of those nights.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
anyone who watches the B10 and thinks they have 11 tourney worthy teams is crazy no matter what the metrics say.. they have 3 teams playing well then a bunch of avg teams who just shock each other with good shooting nights. wish we could have had a couple of those nights.

Are you saying I am crazy for thinking the BIg10 could get 11 teams in? They are likely getting 10 at this point.

Or are you just saying its crazy that the metrics that the committee uses could result in the BIG getting 10 or 11 teams because they don't deserve that many based on game play.?

Or both.

I have noted many teams the metrics are skewed to help conferences with a high % of decent teams (say NIT level or above). When they all start playing each other it makes the NET better and the quality wins better. Its a weakness in the system, but that is how they always pick them.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Purdue wins at Iowa 77-68, a huge Q1 road win.

11 teams from the BIG still a possibility.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
Another Q1 win for Texas.

1583298562773.png


5 wins a row from Texas, including the last 3 as Q1 wins, have raised them from the ashes. This would be the equivalent of Syracuse fans speculating what would happen if we won 6 or 7 games in a row.

Before today 23% of people had Texas in, and it will be much higher after this win.

If I was doing a bracket I would have them in as of now.
 

MSOrange

2018 Cali Winner: Passing Yards (Big Deal Again)
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
19,166
Like
43,792
Another Q1 win for Texas.

View attachment 177511

5 wins a row from Texas, including the last 3 as Q1 wins, have raised them from the ashes. This would be the equivalent of Syracuse fans speculating what would happen if we won 6 or 7 games in a row.

Before today 23% of people had Texas in, and it will be much higher after this win.

If I was doing a bracket I would have them in as of now.

Have to think Shaka had to have this run to save his job.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
1583375409068.png

I hate calling it a lock. But if Providence loses out, this win probably put them over the top.

1583375523763.png


5% had them in before today, and this Q2 win will certainly help them. I don't really view their resume as strongly as some others. They just need to keep winning, but they are still clearly out in my view as of now.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
On the brackets updated today.

94% of the brackets had 10 B10 teams
25% of them had 11 B10 teams.

A part of the Big East legacy is that it is still the only conference to get 11, or even 10, teams in the tourney.

Obviously many of us still have a special place for the old Big East. What are your thoughts if the 11 was matched?
 

JrodCuse

All Conference
Joined
Sep 24, 2011
Messages
2,146
Like
2,995
So is basically everyone in agreement that the only way cuse can sneak in is by winning the ACCT? Or if we make it to the finals would that be enough?
 

jdubs30

Living Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2011
Messages
12,680
Like
21,698
So is basically everyone in agreement that the only way cuse can sneak in is by winning the ACCT? Or if we make it to the finals would that be enough?
If we make finals, beating UVA then FSU on the way there, and lost a very close game to Duke/Ville; along with not a lot of bid stealers across the country - we’d be right there but no guarantee.

But we’d need a lot of chalk next week to feel good about that scenario and you’ll stress yourself out worrying about who else is winning across the country.

The quick answer - yes, our only way in is to win the ACCT. That should be your mindset going into next week. If Saturday comes and we’re playing in the ACC Title game then I think it’s ok to start seeing what’s going on across the country
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,075
Like
19,523
I think the above by JDubs is a fair scenario.

This was something I posted on another board, where something said he "would not be shocked" that we get in at 19-14, then when I questioned it he decided to pull out the old reading comprehension comment. He noted that many other teams have 11-14 losses and also don't have many quality wins. As you will see if we just win tomorrow and one game in the ACC we are so far the behind the rest of the teams in Q1+Q2 record we have no shot. Yes, they have as many losses but we basically piled up on Q3 wins.

But the good thing about conference tournaments is that they are neutral games and when you get deeper into them they become Q1 games. So you can pile up big resume boosters fairly quickly. You will see in the end of my post below what we would likely look like with 3 ACCT wins instead of 1 ACCT win. At least then it becomes close enough to try to compare. If we make the ACC Semi's at that point maybe you can start comparing.

But I still think it will come up short. But won't say there is no chance. The bubble teams did very well last week, and a number of P5+BE teams have really improved their stock the past two weeks with wins and quality wins (USC, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, Oklahoma, Providence) to the point that they are creating a larger gap. It also hasn't helped that Rutgers, who was falling quickly, got a big win this week that may have locked up a bid. We need a higher than expected of # teams to lose out at this point which is a tough ask.

This surge from middle of the pack P5 teams has hurt Syracuse -- but even moreso it hurt some more mid-major schools in the A-10 and American.

---------------------------------


Q1 wins, and Q1+Q2 record
We are currently 2-6, 5-11.
If we go 19-14, that record would probably be 2-7, 6-12

Compare that to the 6 teams below that are the first six out of the tournament..
NC St: 4-5, 9-9
Rhode Island 1-4, 6-7
Richmond 2-4, 4-6
Texas 5-7, 7-11
Miss St 2-7, 7-9
Purdue 4-11, 9-13

And we are not even considering that there are teams in as of now that could lose their spot, to 2 or 3 bubble busters.

Here are the last 5 in per the bracket matrix that are also in the equation
Cincy - 2-6, 9-6
UCLA - 6-6, 9-9
Utah St - 2-4, 4-6
Rutgers - 4-9, 8-10
Stanford - 5-5, 7-8

Not to mention, at 19-14, our Q1 wins lack a marquee element, and our NET is much lower than all of those teams. People that have read my posts know that I encourage people not to throw in the towel too early. But this is just not it.

As an aside, making the ACCT Final, with 2 more quality wins, is a much different scenario:
It's 4-6 instead of 2-6 (Q1)
Its 8-12 instead of 6-12 (Q1+Q2)
Its at least one extra marquee win
And our NET would be closer to acceptable.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
19,599
Like
17,018
brackets and analysis aside if we played neutral site games against this list we would still be favored almost every time.
 

Online statistics

Members online
250
Guests online
963
Total visitors
1,213

Top Bottom