Building a market by DMAs

[Timonen]

I completely understand the math/finance model. At some point, though, the product sucking is going to drag that model down and they're going to be swimming in crap.

The benchmark conference has powers in Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, Gainesville, etc...and they could name their price with the networks. They're also in the prime recruiting territory, have the most fan interest and have the most high level booster interest. Those variables aren't going away. Cable systems are going to evolve/blow-up/look different in a decade (much like they have over the past decade). It's not an endless lifeline and these crappy teams are going to be an albitross on the few self-supporting teams sooner than later.

This is all lunacy.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

I completely understand the math/finance model. At some point, though, the product sucking is going to drag that model down and they're going to be swimming in crap.

The benchmark conference has powers in Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, Gainesville, etc...and they could name their price with the networks. They're also in the prime recruiting territory, have the most fan interest and have the most high level booster interest. Those variables aren't going away. Cable systems are going to evolve/blow-up/look different in a decade (much like they have over the past decade). It's not an endless lifeline and these crappy teams are going to be an albitross on the few self-supporting teams sooner than later.

This is all lunacy.

I think it is extremely important for people to understand what the PRODUCT is for these conference networks also. These networks get their content from Tier 3 multimedia rights. TIER 3!!! Not the good stuff when you are talking football games but the left-overs; a couple of horrible to mediocre OOC match-ups perhaps.

Most of the potential LIVE SPORTS broadcasting on these conference networks are the so-called "Olympic sports." Like track and field, softball and lacrosse. Maybe you'll get a match-up like Michigan State-Bemidji State in men's hoops now and then. These Tier 3 conference networks have absolutely no mass appeal. The BTN will be lucky -- and I mean REALLY lucky -- if it can outdraw the audience for the local public access channel in northern New Jersey.

 

[Millhouse]

I completely understand the math/finance model. At some point, though, the product sucking is going to drag that model down and they're going to be swimming in crap.

The benchmark conference has powers in Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, Gainesville, etc...and they could name their price with the networks. They're also in the prime recruiting territory, have the most fan interest and have the most high level booster interest. Those variables aren't going away. Cable systems are going to evolve/blow-up/look different in a decade (much like they have over the past decade). It's not an endless lifeline and these crappy teams are going to be an albitross on the few self-supporting teams sooner than later.

This is all lunacy.

i'm convinced the BTN valuations are crazy. i'd love to know what kind of assumptions they're using. i bet the growth rates are completely nuts. and i bet the nincompoops who run maryland are suckers. and that's not even factoring the uncertainty about how programming will be bundled and priced in the future

 

[Timonen]

it's a quick cash grab and good for the b10 and the schools for jumping on it...but it could easily be worthless (or, better, a cash drag) down the road. you can throw a bucket of money at rutgers and md and they're going to be pretty much the same exact programs (maybe with more newly bult empty seats). then the money will dry up but those squads will still have their hands out for equal shares.

 

[Moontan]

I think it is extremely important for people to understand what the PRODUCT is for these conference networks also. These networks get their content from Tier 3 multimedia rights. TIER 3!!! Not the good stuff when you are talking football games but the left-overs; a couple of horrible to mediocre OOC match-ups perhaps.

You mean like Syracuse at Minnesota and (possibly) Syracuse at Northwestern?

 

[Franz69]

Rutgers will be even worse because they won't be able to play a creampuff schedule anymore.

 

[mscanlo]

I think it is extremely important for people to understand what the PRODUCT is for these conference networks also. These networks get their content from Tier 3 multimedia rights. TIER 3!!! Not the good stuff when you are talking football games but the left-overs; a couple of horrible to mediocre OOC match-ups perhaps.

Most of the potential LIVE SPORTS broadcasting on these conference networks are the so-called "Olympic sports." Like track and field, softball and lacrosse. Maybe you'll get a match-up like Michigan State-Bemidji State in men's hoops now and then. These Tier 3 conference networks have absolutely no mass appeal. The BTN will be lucky -- and I mean REALLY lucky -- if it can outdraw the audience for the local public access channel in northern New Jersey.

might be Tier 3 right now, but the conferences are getting big enough to the point where some good games will fall to Tier 3 because of the 16+ team conferences. also, i wonder if the strategy is to get big enough so that one day the sec network and B1G don't need ESPN and FOX? anymore, and start showing Tier 1 games on their own network. i dont know if that will ever be the case, but there is a chance these conference networks get big enough where they tell the other networks to take a hike (happens in other industries).

also, in the current DVR era, what's left of the tv ad revenue (and there is still a lot since internet/mobile hasn't taking off as quickly as some expected) is starting to shift towards live sports since people watch don't fast forward over commercials during a live sporting event like they do with a show on dvr

 

[Millhouse]

might be Tier 3 right now, but the conferences are getting big enough to the point where some good games will fall to Tier 3 because of the 16+ team conferences. also, i wonder if the strategy is to get big enough so that one day the sec network and B1G don't need ESPN and FOX? anymore, and start showing Tier 1 games on their own network. i dont know if that will ever be the case, but there is a chance these conference networks get big enough where they tell the other networks to take a hike (happens in other industries).

also, in the current DVR era, what's left of the tv ad revenue (and there is still a lot since internet/mobile hasn't taking off as quickly as some expected) is starting to shift towards live sports since people watch don't fast forward over commercials during a live sporting event like they do with a show on dvr

i'm not convinced about the DVR aspect. for some sitcom, not worth the hassle of skipping. you only save ten minutes. between half times, time outs, reviews, whatever, I can start a game late and save myself a good chunk of time.

also, it's kind of a hassle to set up the recordings and stay on top of the disk space so i trade having to watch commercials on primetime on demand for the convenience of not having to bother with the dvr

I know i'm just one person but i think the value of live programming with DVRs is a bit overstated.

 

[Scooch]

i'm not convinced about the DVR aspect. for some sitcom, not worth the hassle of skipping. you only save ten minutes. between half times, time outs, reviews, whatever, I can start a game late and save myself a good chunk of time.

also, it's kind of a hassle to set up the recordings and stay on top of the disk space so i trade having to watch commercials on primetime on demand for the convenience of not having to bother with the dvr

I know i'm just one person but i think the value of live programming with DVRs is a bit overstated.

You're wrong. Sorry man.

Normal people, meaning 98% of the population, do not DVR live sports. The tiny amount of sports that is DVR'd is played back within minutes. It's people doing their own replays, basically. The vast majority of commercials are viewed.

 

[Millhouse]

You're wrong. Sorry man.

Normal people, meaning 98% of the population, do not DVR live sports. The tiny amount of sports that is DVR'd is played back within minutes. It's people doing their own replays, basically. The vast majority of commercials are viewed.

what percent of the population dvrs tapes programming and what percent of the group that DVRs actually skip commercials?

i think both numbers are smaller than what people generally think.

i didn't mean to imply that lots of people do it - i don't think large % of people DVR anything

 

[Scooch]

what percent of the population dvrs tapes programming and what percent of the group that DVRs actually skip commercials?

i think both numbers are smaller than what people generally think.

i didn't mean to imply that lots of people do it - i don't think large % of people DVR anything

Do you mean TV programs overall, or sports?

 

[TDTOrange]

You're wrong. Sorry man.

Normal people, meaning 98% of the population, do not DVR live sports. The tiny amount of sports that is DVR'd is played back within minutes. It's people doing their own replays, basically. The vast majority of commercials are viewed.

What % of people actually view the commercials? I don't know about anybody else, but I have a remote and usually flip to a different game during commercials. I'm just curious if there have ever been studies done to the effectiveness of all the commercials on during the lengthy breaks in each game. I mean, I guess it's gotta be worth something but maybe that's why the same 12 commercials are repeated through each game.

 

[Timonen]

You're wrong. Sorry man.

Normal people, meaning 98% of the population, do not DVR live sports. The tiny amount of sports that is DVR'd is played back within minutes. It's people doing their own replays, basically. The vast majority of commercials are viewed.

as someone who DVRs 98% of my TV content, this surprises me. i can't fathom how anyone with kids can 1) focus on the game while they're up or 2) be ok missing giant chunks of games waiting for them to go to sleep. I DVR games and turn off my phone and turn TV stations to HGTV or something where a scroll can't give it away. For sitcoms/TV, I think there's a giant value to DVRing everything. I get it's only 10 minutes, but that's like saying a free sitcom for every three consumed! It's interesting that online keeps you captive for commercials. my wife and i were in a hotel last week and had to watch survivor online instead of the usual DVR. we were captive to the ads.

 

[Millhouse]

Do you mean TV programs overall, or sports?

darn it - typo that totally changed the meaning

what percent of the population dvrs taped programming (not tapes sorry) and what percent of the group that DVRs actually skip commercials?
i sound very demanding, like i'm going to keep on going with a million demands.

i think people think live sports is magic or something. more people will watch commercials of good dvr'd shows than will watch a commercials on maryland vs nebraska pickleball

 

[Scooch]

darn it - typo that totally changed the meaning

what percent of the population dvrs taped programming (not tapes sorry) and what percent of the group that DVRs actually skip commercials?
i sound very demanding, like i'm going to keep on going with a million demands.

i think people think live sports is magic or something. more people will watch commercials of good dvr'd shows than will watch a commercials on maryland vs nebraska pickleball

I can't share exact figures, and it varies tremendously by genre anyway. But live sports is more magic than you think. The number of minutes of live sports that are viewed live (no DVR) is in the upper 90's%. And commercial retention is typically in the 85-90% range. So most commercials are "seen". Of course people have avoided commercials forever -- bathroom breaks, making a snack, fiddling on your phone, etc. But they run and are potentially viewable to the vast majority of the audience. That's why sports rights fees continue to skyrocket.

Now, even if 50% of American Idol's minutes are played back via DVR, and 50% of the commercial minutes in them are skipped, then sure, quantitatively more people are seeing AI commercials than some crap game on BTN. But those high-reach scripted shows are declining every year, and have been for 2 decades now. So the value of live sports is increasing as it makes up a higher and higher share of commercial TV viewing.

Does that make sense?

 

[Millhouse]

I can't share exact figures, and it varies tremendously by genre anyway. But live sports is more magic than you think. The number of minutes of live sports that are viewed live (no DVR) is in the upper 90's%. And commercial retention is typically in the 85-90% range. So most commercials are "seen". Of course people have avoided commercials forever -- bathroom breaks, making a snack, fiddling on your phone, etc. But they run and are potentially viewable to the vast majority of the audience. That's why sports rights fees continue to skyrocket.

Now, even if 50% of American Idol's minutes are played back via DVR, and 50% of the commercial minutes in them are skipped, then sure, quantitatively more people are seeing AI commercials than some crap game on BTN. But those high-reach scripted shows are declining every year, and have been for 2 decades now. So the value of live sports is increasing as it makes up a higher and higher share of commercial TV viewing.

Does that make sense?

yes but i think that people overestimate how much non-sports non-live programming gets dvrd.

 

[Scooch]

as someone who DVRs 98% of my TV content, this surprises me. i can't fathom how anyone with kids can 1) focus on the game while they're up or 2) be ok missing giant chunks of games waiting for them to go to sleep. I DVR games and turn off my phone and turn TV stations to HGTV or something where a scroll can't give it away. For sitcoms/TV, I think there's a giant value to DVRing everything. I get it's only 10 minutes, but that's like saying a free sitcom for every three consumed! It's interesting that online keeps you captive for commercials. my wife and i were in a hotel last week and had to watch survivor online instead of the usual DVR. we were captive to the ads.

Yeah, you're an outlier. Not that there's anything wrong with that!

People project their behavior, that's normal. Most people don't have kids. Hell, most people don't have a DVR in their home! let that roll around your head. Just ~40% of American homes have a DVR!

We're a very fragmented country and people truly don't understand how others live. One of the fun aspects of being in the research field is getting a truly holistic view of behavior.

 

[Scooch]

yes but i think that people overestimate how much non-sports non-live programming gets dvrd.

Absolutely correct.

Like I just said in another reply, only ~40% of American home even have a DVR! So it's not possible for a majority of TV minutes to be viewed as playback, the math just doesn't work.

 

[Scooch]

What % of people actually view the commercials? I don't know about anybody else, but I have a remote and usually flip to a different game during commercials. I'm just curious if there have ever been studies done to the effectiveness of all the commercials on during the lengthy breaks in each game. I mean, I guess it's gotta be worth something but maybe that's why the same 12 commercials are repeated through each game.

Most commercials are "viewed". By most I mean the majority of conmmercial minutes are either "live" to someone's TV set or are played back from a DVR (meaning not skipped). Yes, a large share of commercials in DVR'd programs are watched, not skipped. People are very, very lazy.

 

[billsin01]

Yeah, you're an outlier. Not that there's anything wrong with that!

People project their behavior, that's normal. Most people don't have kids. Hell, most people don't have a DVR in their home! let that roll around your head. Just ~40% of American homes have a DVR!

We're a very fragmented country and people truly don't understand how others live. One of the fun aspects of being in the research field is getting a truly holistic view of behavior.

Put me in the outlier category as well. I never watch sports live. My kids don't care about, are 6 and under, and that doesn't mesh well with actually watching the game. Not to mention my wife thinks watching football in general is a complete waste of time and I can't help but agree with her. TV timeouts, replay timeouts, halftime, penalties ... Christ it gets long.

But i DVR almost all sports programming and watch it later. Works for me especially since it's not hard to avoid the Cuse/Cincy score, for example. Most of my friends go, "Oh, that's right. You root for Syracuse. Are they any good?"

 

[Scooch]

Put me in the outlier category as well. I never watch sports live. My kids don't care about, are 6 and under, and that doesn't mesh well with actually watching the game. Not to mention my wife thinks watching football in general is a complete waste of time and I can't help but agree with her. TV timeouts, replay timeouts, halftime, penalties ... Christ it gets long.

But i DVR almost all sports programming and watch it later. Works for me especially since it's not hard to avoid the Cuse/Cincy score, for example. Most of my friends go, "Oh, that's right. You root for Syracuse. Are they any good?"

My 5 year old watches games with me all the time. Particularly Syracuse.

I am father of the year.

​

 

[Moontan]

Most commercials are "viewed". By most I mean the majority of conmmercial minutes are either "live" to someone's TV set or are played back from a DVR (meaning not skipped). Yes, a large share of commercials in DVR'd programs are watched, not skipped. People are very, very lazy.

All of my non-sports viewing is from recorded content.

I'm also very good at skipping over commercials... however, while commercials are skipped, my (DirecTV) DVR still shows some frames of the ad. So, while I don't view most ads, I'm still aware of which ads are shown. If there was an ad for something that interests me I will occasionally skip back to view the ad.

The only mainstream sports that I record are Syracuse games. I usually don't watch the recording if I've seen the game live. There are times when I need to run an errand around the start of the game or around half time. I will use the DVR to watch the recorded game and skip commercials until I catch up to live action. Naturally, I avoid the chatroom until I've caught up.

 

[Timonen]

Yeah, you're an outlier. Not that there's anything wrong with that!

People project their behavior, that's normal. Most people don't have kids. Hell, most people don't have a DVR in their home! let that roll around your head. Just ~40% of American homes have a DVR!

We're a very fragmented country and people truly don't understand how others live. One of the fun aspects of being in the research field is getting a truly holistic view of behavior.

as a 14-year fellow member of the mr field, i completely agree!

 

[Scooch]

I don't doubt that some of you guys are heavy DVR-ers and even DVR sports. You're not

All of my non-sports viewing is from recorded content.

I'm also very good at skipping over commercials... however, while commercials are skipped, my (DirecTV) DVR still shows some frames of the ad. So, while I don't view most ads, I'm still aware of which ads are shown. If there was an ad for something that interests me I will occasionally skip back to view the ad.

The only mainstream sports that I record are Syracuse games. I usually don't watch the recording if I've seen the game live. There are times when I need to run an errand around the start of the game or around half time. I will use the DVR to watch the recorded game and skip commercials until I catch up to live action. Naturally, I avoid the chatroom until I've caught up.

Oh, I don't doubt any of this. If 90% of the population acts one way, and 10% the other, that still means there are millions of people in that 10%. We're a big country with lots of differing behaviors.

I'm just talking in big picture trends is all.

 

[billsin01]

I completely understand the math/finance model. At some point, though, the product sucking is going to drag that model down and they're going to be swimming in crap.

The benchmark conference has powers in Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, Gainesville, etc...and they could name their price with the networks. They're also in the prime recruiting territory, have the most fan interest and have the most high level booster interest. Those variables aren't going away. Cable systems are going to evolve/blow-up/look different in a decade (much like they have over the past decade). It's not an endless lifeline and these crappy teams are going to be an albitross on the few self-supporting teams sooner than later.

This is all lunacy.

TIMONEN! Where have you been the last year?!?!?!?! Finally, someone who agrees with me on this topic.

The notion that we left a great product (BE hoops) and jumped into a sagging hoops conference with unhappy members and boring football that puts us (in most cases) way away from the vast concentration of our fans is completely bizarre. UMD is facing the same thing. Bizarre.

But here are my problems with expansion -- without pretending to know or even really care that much about business models, tv numbers and everything else:

1) Product counts and the only conferences people care about have strong regional rivalries and continuity. These megaconferences don't have either, for the most part. If people aren't that vested and the numbers aren't there, you can take all the TV contracts and throw them out -- the money ain't going to be what they think it will be.

2) Travel shouldn't be discounted. Every business in the world is cutting back on travel ... expcept for college athletics which appears all to eager to quadrouple their travel budgets. What's wrong with that picture?

3) More money means more expenses. So while everyone looks at the boost in TV revenues and pats each other on the back, the constant arms race for facilities and skyrocketing coaching salaries are going to negate the vast majority of whatever these schools think they're gaining.

4) Advertising on "live" sporting events. Everyone keeps talking about traditional advertising but basically sports are benefiting from the fact that they haven't figured out how to advertise on other programming yet. The operative word is "yet." These networks can't live on live sports and they will figure out a way to advertise elsewhere ... or else they'll fold. This is a bubble and once the DVR-era advertising is figured out, sports will return to it's appropriate place in the media world. That is going to leave a lot of mouths to feed with far less money. That won't be pretty.