can we go 5-3? | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

can we go 5-3?

IMO, to say we are a definite lock, win 21 games, that means win 7 more games. worse case is be 21-13, and that will get us in. Need to get to 21 wins to be absolutely safe

In the meantime, take care of beating UVA first
 
How do you gauge whether the bubble is good or bad in a particular year? Aren't there 18-19 win bubble teams every year?

This year, the teams that are sitting on the last 4-8 "IN" slots and those just on the outside looking in are not in good shape. Many of losing conference records and 8+ losses already. Very rarely do you see teams with losing conference records get in, and definitely not as many as are projected in right now.

I mean, Pitt was considered in until a week or so ago. They have 1 conference win.
 
I looked at recent ACC history and the closest I see comparable is Vatech last year and Miami 2 seasons ago that both went 10-8 in conference and they both won an ACC tourney game, but both went to the NIT...Vatech had 18 reg season wins and Miami was 20-12 before ACC tourney...Both had at least 1 ok OOC win...but the ACC was ranked 3rd best conference both years and is first this year...The NCAA committee is so subjective these days and its hard for bubble teams...The bubble however is very weak as the above poster said lots of under .500 conf teams ...and lots of 13 and 14 win teams...Dont forget if this is totally by the numbers then Monmouth is a good OOC win...If they wanna just look at the name and downgrade, then as I posted before the 3 old rivals who have name value must be upgraded to acceptable losses...again how does the NCAA committee see it...cant have it both ways

All that said...I gotta think that all the OOCC wins by other teams is offset by bad In conference records ...and our OOC record is offset by a good ACC record...I think in the best conference we get in at 11-7 in ACC...That would have us beating at least 1 of the top teams and getting some road wins...I said before last night we need to at least split with VA and Duke, split games with LVille...and we can lose 1 other somewhere...3 losses rest of way...That path would be really doable and good for NCAA...(prob need to avoid pitt or clemson loss and
 
To me, what is interesting is how does last year's F4 run affect our standing on the bubble (if we are there). Obviously, the answer should be "none," but these are humans on the committee.

I could construct reasonable arguments that last year's run will be helpful (they have a history here).
I could also see it being a hindrance (they did not deserve that bid, F them!).

We should just keep winning.
 
Right now I think we have to get a split of the Gt games, Have to beat either Clemson or Pitt on the road, I am going to give us a loss at Lville. That leaves the 3 home games against Duke,Lville,Uva, I think we would all be happy with two of the three, can we get all 3, I'm not sure.
 
I am working under the assumption that we aren't making the tourney; however, I am quite willing to be proved wrong.

Beating GT in Atlanta is one of the more unlikely wins on our schedule. We will need to beat 2 quality opponents in order to get to 5-3. What we need is 4-4 and 2 wins in the conference tourney, and then hope for a 3rd. That is more probable than going 5-3.
 
Honestly it is very tough to see them getting there.

UVA - Really there is little reason to expect a win here. That team has one of the best defenses in the country and we still have a very shaky offense in terms of functionality. We have great shooters but a terrible offense. We also have a terrible defense that rises to average at home. Per Kenpom, Cavs has #15 offense and #3 defense. Also UVA is going to come in looking for blood after that NCAA tourney game. I suspect this game will get badly out of hand. The trick will be to not let this beatdown trickle over into the next game(s). My predict: chance of winning 10%.

@Clem - Relatively evenly matched opponent but on the road. This will look a lot like NC State which took a miracle to win. If we have the mental toughness to bounce back after the UVA loss, then we have a reasonable chance to win, but it will not be easy. Kenpom rates them better both offensively and defensively than us. My predict: chance of winning 40%.

@Pitt - Look Pitt is terrible. I have scars from the past 15 years such that there is no possible way I will predict us to beat Pitt at Pitt out of hand. We are the better team, but we have been the better team in many losses to Pitt before. Stallings, of course, changes the equation. If this exact team was coached by Dixon, I would give us a 20% chance of winning. As is, my predict is: chance of winning 49%.

Louisville - This is vintage Pitt with actual good players in terms of our success rate against them. Putting Gillon and Howard up against the #2 rated UL defense? We could have more turnovers than field goals in this game. It is at home so I give us a bump for that. My predict: chance of winning 15%.

@GT - They have been very tough at home, racking up some very good wins. But their offense is horri-awful. Although they have a Top 10 defense, it will pale in comparison to UL and UVA and so I think we roll in this game. My predict: chance of winning 65%.

Duke - Coach K is back and they have some time to return injured players (or get already returned injured players back to form by then. It has become a rivalry game though, so add in that x-factor. My predict: chance of winning 55%.

@Louisville - Please. My predict: chance of winning 1%.

GT - Last regular season game in the dome for White, Battle, Gillon, DC, Lydon, Howard against a poor road team. My predict: chance of winning 70%.

So given all that. I see us realistically getting 3 more wins out of that group. Add in the miracle of sports and give us one more due to that factor and we go 4-4.

5-3 would require significant improvement over what we saw against NC State.
 
Honestly it is very tough to see them getting there.

UVA - Really there is little reason to expect a win here. That team has one of the best defenses in the country and we still have a very shaky offense in terms of functionality. We have great shooters but a terrible offense. We also have a terrible defense that rises to average at home. Per Kenpom, Cavs has #15 offense and #3 defense. Also UVA is going to come in looking for blood after that NCAA tourney game. I suspect this game will get badly out of hand. The trick will be to not let this beatdown trickle over into the next game(s). My predict: chance of winning 10%.

@Clem - Relatively evenly matched opponent but on the road. This will look a lot like NC State which took a miracle to win. If we have the mental toughness to bounce back after the UVA loss, then we have a reasonable chance to win, but it will not be easy. Kenpom rates them better both offensively and defensively than us. My predict: chance of winning 40%.

@Pitt - Look Pitt is terrible. I have scars from the past 15 years such that there is no possible way I will predict us to beat Pitt at Pitt out of hand. We are the better team, but we have been the better team in many losses to Pitt before. Stallings, of course, changes the equation. If this exact team was coached by Dixon, I would give us a 20% chance of winning. As is, my predict is: chance of winning 49%.

Louisville - This is vintage Pitt with actual good players in terms of our success rate against them. Putting Gillon and Howard up against the #2 rated UL defense? We could have more turnovers than field goals in this game. It is at home so I give us a bump for that. My predict: chance of winning 15%.

@GT - They have been very tough at home, racking up some very good wins. But their offense is horri-awful. Although they have a Top 10 defense, it will pale in comparison to UL and UVA and so I think we roll in this game. My predict: chance of winning 65%.

Duke - Coach K is back and they have some time to return injured players (or get already returned injured players back to form by then. It has become a rivalry game though, so add in that x-factor. My predict: chance of winning 55%.

@Louisville - Please. My predict: chance of winning 1%.

GT - Last regular season game in the dome for White, Battle, Gillon, DC, Lydon, Howard against a poor road team. My predict: chance of winning 70%.

So given all that. I see us realistically getting 3 more wins out of that group. Add in the miracle of sports and give us one more due to that factor and we go 4-4.

5-3 would require significant improvement over what we saw against NC State.
I don't understand why people keep discounting the NSSU win. That team is loaded with talent, has under performed all season and had their best shooting game all season at home. They also SU down 16 late in the game.
 
I don't understand why people keep discounting the NSSU win. That team is loaded with talent, has under performed all season and had their best shooting game all season at home. They also SU down 16 late in the game.


they had their best shooting game of the season for a reason, our defense STINKS on the road.

it was a very impressive comeback though, and hopefully will give them some confidence on the road the rest of the way.
 
they had their best shooting game of the season for a reason, our defense STINKS on the road.

it was a very impressive comeback though, and hopefully will give them some confidence on the road the rest of the way.
No, they were on fire from deep. If some of those hadn't gone down , Cuse would have housed them.
 
No, they were on fire from deep. If some of those hadn't gone down , Cuse would have housed them.

No, voice of reason, our defense was terrible. They were on fire from deep because they were wide open. There's kids playing pickup ball in rec centers on campuses across the country that could hit those 3's if they are consistently left open like that.
 
No, they were on fire from deep. If some of those hadn't gone down , Cuse would have housed them.

But the way we won that game was not a "systematic" way of winning games. We shot 57% from 3 point range! And you claim they were on fire? We did not run an effective offense for big chunks of that game against their mediocre defense. Half of our remaining games are against teams with Kenpom top 10 defenses, three of them against teams in the top 3! We could be a 2 seed caliber team and go 4-4 against this schedule. Almost nothing that happened in that NC State game translates to future games other than our subpar defense on the road, poor rebounding, and very good shooting.
 
10-8 in conf and 2 ACCT wins could very well do it
 
But the way we won that game was not a "systematic" way of winning games. We shot 57% from 3 point range! And you claim they were on fire? We did not run an effective offense for big chunks of that game against their mediocre defense. Half of our remaining games are against teams with Kenpom top 10 defenses, three of them against teams in the top 3! We could be a 2 seed caliber team and go 4-4 against this schedule. Almost nothing that happened in that NC State game translates to future games other than our subpar defense on the road, poor rebounding, and very good shooting.
That team smoked Duke and UVA. When They're hot, they're hot. But Cuse overcame it, major mojo.
 
That team smoked Duke and UVA. When They're hot, they're hot. But Cuse overcame it, major mojo.

I hope you're right. But I saw the same problems as I've seen all season for us in road games except Gillon went into another dimension with 9-10 shooting on threes.

I look at like this: if we play that same game against UL at their fried chicken palace, the final score would probably be 108-49.
 
Just to keep our eye on the ball, we are essentially on track from what we hoped to be as of the first week of February.
Honestly it is very tough to see them getting there.

UVA - Really there is little reason to expect a win here. That team has one of the best defenses in the country and we still have a very shaky offense in terms of functionality. We have great shooters but a terrible offense. We also have a terrible defense that rises to average at home. Per Kenpom, Cavs has #15 offense and #3 defense. Also UVA is going to come in looking for blood after that NCAA tourney game. I suspect this game will get badly out of hand. The trick will be to not let this beatdown trickle over into the next game(s). My predict: chance of winning 10%.

@Clem - Relatively evenly matched opponent but on the road. This will look a lot like NC State which took a miracle to win. If we have the mental toughness to bounce back after the UVA loss, then we have a reasonable chance to win, but it will not be easy. Kenpom rates them better both offensively and defensively than us. My predict: chance of winning 40%.

@Pitt - Look Pitt is terrible. I have scars from the past 15 years such that there is no possible way I will predict us to beat Pitt at Pitt out of hand. We are the better team, but we have been the better team in many losses to Pitt before. Stallings, of course, changes the equation. If this exact team was coached by Dixon, I would give us a 20% chance of winning. As is, my predict is: chance of winning 49%.

Louisville - This is vintage Pitt with actual good players in terms of our success rate against them. Putting Gillon and Howard up against the #2 rated UL defense? We could have more turnovers than field goals in this game. It is at home so I give us a bump for that. My predict: chance of winning 15%.

@GT - They have been very tough at home, racking up some very good wins. But their offense is horri-awful. Although they have a Top 10 defense, it will pale in comparison to UL and UVA and so I think we roll in this game. My predict: chance of winning 65%.

Duke - Coach K is back and they have some time to return injured players (or get already returned injured players back to form by then. It has become a rivalry game though, so add in that x-factor. My predict: chance of winning 55%.

@Louisville - Please. My predict: chance of winning 1%.

GT - Last regular season game in the dome for White, Battle, Gillon, DC, Lydon, Howard against a poor road team. My predict: chance of winning 70%.

So given all that. I see us realistically getting 3 more wins out of that group. Add in the miracle of sports and give us one more due to that factor and we go 4-4.

5-3 would require significant improvement over what we saw against NC State.

If we beat GT at home on senior day, we will be 4-4, but the wins came against different opponents than we thought. I think a home win against UVA is more beneficial for us than a road loss to GT is bad. Same with Duke/Pitt. I stick to my predict of 70% win chance against GT in the dome. They have a sneaky good defense, but Andrew White and Lydon are going to be more effective at home and we play much better defense.
 
Just to keep our eye on the ball, we are essentially on track from what we hoped to be as of the first week of February.


If we beat GT at home on senior day, we will be 4-4, but the wins came against different opponents than we thought. I think a home win against UVA is more beneficial for us than a road loss to GT is bad. Same with Duke/Pitt. I stick to my predict of 70% win chance against GT in the dome. They have a sneaky good defense, but Andrew White and Lydon are going to be more effective at home and we play much better defense.
We better beat GT on senior night in front of a good crowd with all that is on the line. If we don't I will be really disappointed.
 
well unfortunately i was right with the road games, i didnt see us winning more than 1 of the road games we had left, and we needed a buzzer beater just to win that game. assuming we beat ga tech we came damn close to sweeping the home schedule which i thought was possible.
 

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