Context for this season

[GoSU96]

What is frustrating is that this team should be two or three games better.

This team is playing solid ball on both sides, its one of the best teams in the last twenty years. I understand the issues they are having on specials and situational football, which is resulting in games being much closer than they should be. But based on how the team is playing relative to the history of the program this should be a 8,9,10mwin team, not white knuckling to get to six.

Here‘s some context relative to FBS going back to 2009 showing SUs combined ranking for offense and defense and total wins.

Here is this teams statistical performance over the last 20 years,

Right now this team has the third highest points per game, 5th highest yds per game (running fewer plays), highest yds per play, tied for third lowest puts per game, 2nd lowest yds per game, 2nd lowest yds per play over the last twenty years.

This team should be a lock to get to six. That it isn’t Is crazy.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

I generally agree with your premise. I like YPP as a statistical measuring stick more than most other measures. The other stats you've included are a little circumstantial for me to give much weight in comparing teams across decades.

The only problem with comparing current YPP to past seasons is that this season has our non-conf. more heavily weighed versus the other full seasons represented.

We still have four conference games left before the dust settles on the final numbers. Of course, if the trend on net YPP continues we should get to 6 or 7 wins and a bowl game without issue.

 

[TheCusian]

I generally agree with your premise. I like YPP as a statistical measuring stick more than most other measures. The other stats you've included are a little circumstantial for me to give much weight in comparing teams across decades.

The only problem with comparing current YPP to past seasons is that this season has our non-conf. more heavily weighed versus the other full seasons represented.

We still have four conference games left before the dust settles on the final numbers. Of course, if the trend on net YPP continues we should get to 6 or 7 wins and a bowl game without issue.

I’m not trying to pick a fight or attack you personally... it feels like you’re critical in the right way about statistical analysis, but don’t do your own.

It’s a fair bit of work for someone to do and then have someone pick out the things they have issue with - without contributing in kind at some point.

Again, I’m not harping on you. Just feel like you have insight into this stuff but usually use it to point out what’s wrong

 

[upperdeck]

if you gave us the Turnovers we caused last yr we would be 7-1 or 8-0.. when the punting issues started we just made the field even longer.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

I’m not trying to pick a fight or attack you personally... it feels like you’re critical in the right way about statistical analysis, but don’t do your own.

It’s a fair bit of work for someone to do and then have someone pick out the things they have issue with - without contributing in kind at some point.

Again, I’m not harping on you. Just feel like you have insight into this stuff but usually use it to point out what’s wrong

I gave the OP a like because I like stats and numbers. No attack intended. That was alot of work.

As you know, I've done statistical analysis on here before, its just time consuming. I was just pointing out that comparing 8 games through (with 4 league games left) versus a full season doesn't fully support the conclusion at this point.

I have actually stepped back from posting as everything seems to turn into a argument and gets a little to personal.

I definitely credit Go for his work.

 

[javadoc]

It's just nutz. No one is satisfied with the record and certain things in game, but we are so close to being very good, and in solid solid shape as a program.

 

[money3189]

What is frustrating is that this team should be two or three games better.

This team is playing solid ball on both sides, its one of the best teams in the last twenty years. I understand the issues they are having on specials and situational football, which is resulting in games being much closer than they should be. But based on how the team is playing relative to the history of the program this should be a 8,9,10mwin team, not white knuckling to get to six.

Here‘s some context relative to FBS going back to 2009 showing SUs combined ranking for offense and defense and total wins.

View attachment 209570

Here is this teams statistical performance over the last 20 years,

View attachment 209571

Right now this team has the third highest points per game, 5th highest yds per game (running fewer plays), highest yds per play, tied for third lowest puts per game, 2nd lowest yds per game, 2nd lowest yds per play over the last twenty years.

ake winning plays when it counts. This team should be a lock to get to six. That it isn’t Is crazy.

What is frustrating is that this team should be two or three games better.

This team is playing solid ball on both sides, its one of the best teams in the last twenty years. I understand the issues they are having on specials and situational football, which is resulting in games being much closer than they should be. But based on how the team is playing relative to the history of the program this should be a 8,9,10mwin team, not white knuckling to get to six.

Here‘s some context relative to FBS going back to 2009 showing SUs combined ranking for offense and defense and total wins.

View attachment 209570

Here is this teams statistical performance over the last 20 years,

View attachment 209571

Right now this team has the third highest points per game, 5th highest yds per game (running fewer plays), highest yds per play, tied for third lowest puts per game, 2nd lowest yds per game, 2nd lowest yds per play over the last twenty years.

This team should be a lock to get to six. That it isn’t Is crazy.

Good data. We cant say but in terms of special teams. Its 1/3 of the game. They determine games.

 

[TheCusian]

I gave the OP a like because I like stats and numbers. No attack intended. That was alot of work.

As you know, I've done statistical analysis on here before, its just time consuming. I was just pointing out that comparing 8 games through (with 4 league games left) versus a full season doesn't fully support the conclusion at this point.

I have actually stepped back from posting as everything seems to turn into a argument and gets a little to personal.

I definitely credit Go for his work.

Fair. Appreciate you not taking this that way.

Honestly would love to see more stat geek stuff out there lol.

 

[qdawgg]

Good data. We cant say but in terms of special teams. Its 1/3 of the game. They determine games.

Yeah, I think this shows how important it is. Early on in the VT game I had the thought, if we lose it will be because of our punting/kicking game.

With our defense, imagine the starting field position for the offense if the D was able to start their series with the opponents O pushed further back. I wonder if it could also be causing less TO’s in the air as opponents don’t need to take as many chances in the air b/c their avg starting field position is favorable.

 

[money3189]

Yeah, I think this shows how important it is. Early on in the VT game I had the thought, if we lose it will be because of our punting/kicking game.

With our defense, imagine the starting field position for the offense if the D was able to start their series with the opponents O pushed further back. I wonder if it could also be causing less TO’s in the air as opponents don’t need to take as many chances in the air b/c their avg starting field position is favorable.

Yup, everything you mentioned are factors that determine games.

 

[Chip]

Good data. We cant say but in terms of special teams. Its 1/3 of the game. They determine games.

True, but I think it will be easier to fix that, we have a good track record.

The way we've been dominated in yardage, offense and defense so many years, it's pretty remarkable what we've done.

 

[OrangePA]

True, but I think it will be easier to fix that, we have a good track record.

The way we've been dominated in yardage, offense and defense so many years, it's pretty remarkable what we've done.

Young punters at SU seem to perform much better in ensuing years

 

[CbusCuse]

It's just nutz. No one is satisfied with the record and certain things in game, but we are so close to being very good, and in solid solid shape as a program.

While I pretty much agree as I think we are a solid team right now, I still think we have been very lucky this year in that we have the added advantage or Super Seniors who normally would not have been here and I think it has helped us more than some other programs since we typically have less depth. Practically out entire defensive line unit; McKinley Williams, Josh Black, Kingley Jonathan, and Cody Roscoe all would not typically still be here. I had been worried about the DL cupboard this season being bare for a long time now but we got saved. And the addition of Servais and Rhino(when available) this year have helped a lot as well.

I think we got lucky as we hadn't recruited adequately for the DL position which could have severely hurt us. Similarly to our OL depth in previous years. Also our WR talent/depth hasnt hurt us too much this year as we got saved being able to bring in Shrader and have the offense run through him which totally changed the dynamic and allowed that weakness not to be as critical. Hopefully with some success over the next couple of years that will help our recruiting efforts so we can maintain some talented depth.

 

[OrangeFoo]

It's just nutz. No one is satisfied with the record and certain things in game, but we are so close to being very good, and in solid solid shape as a program.

I think it's interesting to take a small sample size and use it to take a position on the state of the program.

To play devil's advocate imagine if we didn't have Shrader and we didn't have Tucker? Would we still be in solid solid shape as a program? If two players can make or break multiple seasons, I'm not sure that typifies a solid program.

This year has been fun with the potential to be great, just like Dungey's senior year... Babers has to show that he can build up on this year and next year with Shrader/Tucker, continue to improve talent on o-line, significantly improve WR talent, learn how to manage the clock, significantly improve ST, etc... before we can judge anything about that state of the program.

 

[money3189]

True, but I think it will be easier to fix that, we have a good track record.

The way we've been dominated in yardage, offense and defense so many years, it's pretty remarkable what we've done.

I dont know what is going to be fixed or not. I'm just saying special teams hasnt been as good and its a factor in why we are 4-4 instead of 6-2.

 

[Crusty]

What is frustrating is that this team should be two or three games better.

This team is playing solid ball on both sides, its one of the best teams in the last twenty years. I understand the issues they are having on specials and situational football, which is resulting in games being much closer than they should be. But based on how the team is playing relative to the history of the program this should be a 8,9,10mwin team, not white knuckling to get to six.

Here‘s some context relative to FBS going back to 2009 showing SUs combined ranking for offense and defense and total wins.

View attachment 209570

Here is this teams statistical performance over the last 20 years,

View attachment 209571

Right now this team has the third highest points per game, 5th highest yds per game (running fewer plays), highest yds per play, tied for third lowest puts per game, 2nd lowest yds per game, 2nd lowest yds per play over the last twenty years.

This team should be a lock to get to six. That it isn’t Is crazy.

I buy the bulk of your take. Especially when you factor in the ACC Era.
The team has shown they can play with anyone passing game warts and all (imagine when GS gets to about 55% completing).

I think we should be 2 games better for sure and won't be surprised if we end up 7-5! Pitt is the class of the conference this year. We might be next year if Dino can clean up his act. I think he knows it.

 

[upperdeck]

for whatever reason we have gotten way less bad throws from other teams QBs this year. our sack numbers and pressure is still pretty good though.

 

[upperdeck]

look at Wake a team thats really taken advantage of players with extra yrs. their best players

4th yr QB
4th yr RB
4th yr WR
4th yr kicker

5th yr DB
5th yr DB
4th yr LB
5th yr DB
4th yr DL

they lose most of their backend on D and probably the 2 leading WRs, Dont see the RB or QB going anyplace

 

[javadoc]

I think it's interesting to take a small sample size and use it to take a position on the state of the program.

To play devil's advocate imagine if we didn't have Shrader and we didn't have Tucker? Would we still be in solid solid shape as a program? If two players can make or break multiple seasons, I'm not sure that typifies a solid program.

This year has been fun with the potential to be great, just like Dungey's senior year... Babers has to show that he can build up on this year and next year with Shrader/Tucker, continue to improve talent on o-line, significantly improve WR talent, learn how to manage the clock, significantly improve ST, etc... before we can judge anything about that state of the program.

Fundamentally disagree with most of this.

 

[OrangeFoo]

Fundamentally disagree with most of this.

So if Devito and Lutz were starting and we had 1 to 2 wins right now we would still be on the verge of becoming a solid solid program?

 

[IthacaBarrel]

So if Devito and Lutz were starting and we had 1 to 2 wins right now we would still be on the verge of becoming a solid solid program?

No but QB is the most important position in all of sports and we have him for 2 more years so there is some optimism. God forbid. Tuck for 1 more year, so get a bowl game the next two years and keep building. Success has to pave the way for future success. It's the only way not saying it will happen but hoping Dino can pull us back up after a rough 2 years.

It's tough to replace good QB's

 

[Orangezoo]

Is there data on average starting field position as well both us and opponent? This is really good analysis. In respect to the specials conversation, it has seemed to me at least that field position has had a huge impact and added such a degree of difficulty to both sides of the ball. In addition penalties as well ( some of that has been at the hands of some awful awful crews).

 

[007]

So if Devito and Lutz were starting and we had 1 to 2 wins right now we would still be on the verge of becoming a solid solid program?

The state of the state for just about any program is almost always tied to the play of QB, and especially when the QB is a playmaker like Shrader who is only a sophomore. Why would we hypothetical factor him out of the equation when assessing the state of the program?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Some context for what is at stake Saturday:

If we beat BC we will be 5-4 after 9 games (3/4 of the way through the season). Sadly, that will tie for the 4th best record by an SU team through 9 games in the 2000s (2001, 2010, 2018). So only 3 teams in those 21 other seasons had a better record than this team would. Although one of those teams played 2 FCS games otherwise they are 5-3. Which means FBS Ws the 2010 team had the same at this point (4). Record wise only 2001 and 2018 had more after 9 games.

 

[OrangeFoo]

The state of the state for just about any program is almost always tied to the play of QB, and especially when the QB is a playmaker like Shrader who is only a sophomore. Why would we hypothetical factor him out of the equation when assessing the state of the program?

Because once Shrader leaves we have ZERO proof we won't bottom out again. Most peer programs seems to have a QB who can somewhat keep things moving forward. So if we are a solid program we need to have a next man up who is at least d1 material.