Did Coach K's 1&Done Sellout Pay Off

[SU94]

Likely could argue this a bit, but it seems that Coach K began his leap into the 1-And-Done business with his 2014-15 squad (UK was already there). That team featured freshman Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, Tyus Jones and Grayson Allen. They won it all, beating Wisconsin in the title game by five points.

So, how did he do overall? Was it worth it to not be able to work with and coach players for 3-4 years at a time? To me, it appeared to hinder the results.
At quick glance, however, it seems he largely met the standards he set in his initial 35 seasons at Duke ("Old Duke").
Good for him. Sucked for everyone else. But, hey, it's over, ... so there is that!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Duke was falling behind without the One & Dones.

2015-2022 (really 7 seasons since 2020 canceled)
1 Champ and 1 other Final Four

2002-2014 (13 seasons)
1 Champ and 1 other Final Four

Kinda crazy that over the last 20 non Covid seasons that Duke has only 1 more tile and 1 more Final Four appearance than SU (1 Champ and 3 FFs)

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Figured I would add in the last 20 seasons for everyone

Duke 2 Champs & 4 Final Fours
Cuse 1 Champ & 3 Final Fours

UNC 3 Champ & 6 FFs
UConn 3 Champ & 4 FFs
Kansas 2 Champ & 6 FFs
Nova 2 Champ & 4 FFs
Florida 2 Champ & 3 FFs
Kentucky 1 Champ & 4 FFs
Louisville 1 Champ & 3 FFs

Baylor, Maryland, UVA: 1 Champ & 1 FF each

Michigan State 0 Champ & 5 FFs
UCLA 0 Champ & 4 FFs

Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin: 0 Champ & 2 FFs each

Auburn, GA Tech, George Mason, Georgetown, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Loyola-Chicago, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Texas Tech, VCU, West Virginia, Wichita State: 0 Champs & 1 FF each

 

[MikeSU02]

Likely could argue this a bit, but it seems that Coach K began his leap into the 1-And-Done business with his 2014-15 squad (UK was already there). That team featured freshman Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, Tyus Jones and Grayson Allen. They won it all, beating Wisconsin in the title game by five points.

So, how did he do overall? Was it worth it to not be able to work with and coach players for 3-4 years at a time? To me, it appeared to hinder the results.
At quick glance, however, it seems he largely met the standards he set in his initial 35 seasons at Duke ("Old Duke").
Good for him. Sucked for everyone else. But, hey, it's over, ... so there is that!

View attachment 216334

I honestly believe if the 2011 NBA lockout never happens, UK loses at least one of the sophs they had on their team (Lamb or Jones) and they do not win the title.

The Duke team that won had upperclassmen involved with that talent.

I still cannot believe they got the #1, #2 and #3 guys in 2018.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Figured I would add in the last 20 seasons for everyone

Duke 2 Champs & 4 Final Fours
Cuse 1 Champ & 3 Final Fours

UNC 3 Champ & 6 FFs
UConn 3 Champ & 4 FFs
Kansas 2 Champ & 6 FFs
Nova 2 Champ & 4 FFs
Florida 2 Champ & 3 FFs
Kentucky 1 Champ & 4 FFs
Louisville 1 Champ & 3 FFs

Baylor, Maryland, UVA: 1 Champ & 1 FF each

Michigan State 0 Champ & 5 FFs
UCLA 0 Champ & 4 FFs

Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin: 0 Champ & 2 FFs each

Auburn, GA Tech, George Mason, Georgetown, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Loyola-Chicago, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Texas Tech, VCU, West Virginia, Wichita State: 0 Champs & 1 FF each

To include the entire 2000s:

UNC goes up to 3 Champ & 7 FFs (tied for most FFs)
Duke goes up to 3 Champs & 5 FFs (tied with UNC & UConn for most Champs)
Michigan State goes up to 1 Champ & 7 FFs (tied for most FFs)
Florida goes up to 2 Champs & 4 FFs to join Nova
Maryland goes up to 1 Champ & 2 FFs
Wisconsin goes up to 3 FFs
Arizona gets added to 0 Champ & 1 FF list

So in the 2000s based only on Champs & Final Fours:

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. UConn
4. Kansas
5. (tie) Nova, Florida
7. Michigan State
8. Kentucky
9. (tie) Cuse, Louisville
11. Maryland
12. (tie) Baylor, UVA
14. UCLA
15. Wisconsin
16. (tie) Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma
21. (tie) 20 team list
41. (tie) everyone else

 

[MikeSU02]

To include the entire 2000s:

UNC goes up to 3 Champ & 7 FFs (tied for most FFs)
Duke goes up to 3 Champs & 5 FFs (tied with UNC & UConn for most Champs)
Michigan State goes up to 1 Champ & 7 FFs (tied for most FFs)
Florida goes up to 2 Champs & 4 FFs to join Nova
Maryland goes up to 1 Champ & 2 FFs
Wisconsin goes up to 3 FFs
Arizona gets added to 0 Champ & 1 FF list

So in the 2000s based only on Champs & Final Fours:

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. UConn
4. Kansas
5. (tie) Nova, Florida
7. Michigan State
8. Kentucky
9. (tie) Cuse, Louisville
11. Maryland
12. (tie) Baylor, UVA
14. UCLA
15. Wisconsin
16. (tie) Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma
21. (tie) 20 team list
41. (tie) everyone else

And we got hosed in 2010. That would kill one of Duke's chips and give us another chip and FF.

No one will ever tell me otherwise.

Thanks for putting this together.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

To include the entire 2000s:

UNC goes up to 3 Champ & 7 FFs (tied for most FFs)
Duke goes up to 3 Champs & 5 FFs (tied with UNC & UConn for most Champs)
Michigan State goes up to 1 Champ & 7 FFs (tied for most FFs)
Florida goes up to 2 Champs & 4 FFs to join Nova
Maryland goes up to 1 Champ & 2 FFs
Wisconsin goes up to 3 FFs
Arizona gets added to 0 Champ & 1 FF list

So in the 2000s based only on Champs & Final Fours:

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. UConn
4. Kansas
5. (tie) Nova, Florida
7. Michigan State
8. Kentucky
9. (tie) Cuse, Louisville
11. Maryland
12. (tie) Baylor, UVA
14. UCLA
15. Wisconsin
16. (tie) Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma
21. (tie) 20 team list
41. (tie) everyone else

By current conference

ACC (6 teams 9 Champs & 20 FFs) - UNC, Duke, Cuse/Louisville, UVA, GA Tech
Big East (5 teams 5 Champs & 12 FFs) - UConn, Nova, Butler, Georgetown/Marquette
B12 (7 teams 3 Champs & 13 FFs) - Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State/Texas/Texas Tech/West Virginia
SEC (5 teams 3 Champs & 11 FFs) - Florida, Kentucky, Auburn/LSU/South Carolina
B1G (7 teams 2 Champs & 18 FFs) - Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan/Ohio State, Illinois/Indiana
P12 (3 teams 0 Champs & 6 FFs) - UCLA, Arizona/Oregon
AAC (3 teams 0 Champ & 3 FFs)- Houston/Memphis/Wichita State
A10 (2 teams 0 Champ & 2 FFs) - George Mason/VCU
WCC (1 team 0 Champ & 2 FFs) - Gonzaga
MVC (1 team 0 Champ & 1 FF) - Loyola-Chicago

The B12 really moved up the last 2 seasons. Without that they are at 6 teams, 1 Champ, and 11 FFs. The really is a P5 as the P12 is a mid major in the 2000s.

After the next round of realignment:

SEC goes up to 7 teams, 3 Champs, 14 FFs by adding Oklahoma and Texas.
B12 goes down to 6 teams, 3 Champs, 11 FFs by adding Houston
AAC goes down to 2 teams, 0 Champ, 2 FFs)

 

[HoustonCuse]

And we got hosed in 2010. That would kill one of Duke's chips and give us another chip and FF.

No one will ever tell me otherwise.

Thanks for putting this together.

2012 was a bigger hose job. We sat Fab Melo for reasons these other schools would giggle at. Plus that Ohio State game where we were called for more fouls than the entire 6OT game.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

By current conference

ACC (6 teams 9 Champs & 20 FFs) - UNC, Duke, Cuse/Louisville, UVA, GA Tech
Big East (5 teams 5 Champs & 12 FFs) - UConn, Nova, Butler, Georgetown/Marquette
B12 (7 teams 3 Champs & 13 FFs) - Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State/Texas/Texas Tech/West Virginia
SEC (5 teams 3 Champs & 11 FFs) - Florida, Kentucky, Auburn/LSU/South Carolina
B1G (7 teams 2 Champs & 18 FFs) - Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan/Ohio State, Illinois/Indiana
P12 (3 teams 0 Champs & 6 FFs) - UCLA, Arizona/Oregon
AAC (3 teams 0 Champ & 3 FFs)- Houston/Memphis/Wichita State
A10 (2 teams 0 Champ & 2 FFs) - George Mason/VCU
WCC (1 team 0 Champ & 2 FFs) - Gonzaga
MVC (1 team 0 Champ & 1 FF) - Loyola-Chicago

The B12 really moved up the last 2 seasons. Without that they are at 6 teams, 1 Champ, and 11 FFs. The really is a P5 as the P12 is a mid major in the 2000s.

After the next round of realignment:

SEC goes up to 7 teams, 3 Champs, 14 FFs by adding Oklahoma and Texas.
B12 goes down to 6 teams, 3 Champs, 11 FFs by adding Houston
AAC goes down to 2 teams, 0 Champ, 2 FFs)

The last current B1G team to win a title was 20 years ago, and it is 22 years since a team won a title while actually in the B1G. It is similar in Football as they haven't won since 2014 and that is their only title in the last 19 seasons.

The P12 is even worse at 25 years for BBall. Football is bad too with no titles in the last 17 seasons.

The SEC is starting to get up there as well at 10 years for BBall. They are more than fine in Football.

The B12 is fine in BBall but in Football they have no titles in the last 16 seasons, and only 1 in the last 21 seasons. That isn't likely to change by losing Texas, Oklahoma, and TV money.

It has been 32 years since a team not currently in the P6 won a title, and another 24 years to find another non P6 team. Overall 2 titles in the last 68 years. Although in 2014 UConn won while in the AAC. For Football the non P6 hasn't won since 1984 (37 years ago), which is the only title in the last 76 years.

Edit

So both sports combined the B1G has 1 title in the last 19 seasons. The P12 has zero titles in the last 17 seasons. Should we even consider the P12 a major conference anymore, especially with their poor TV contract?

After BYU moves to the B12 it will be no titles for the G5 in the last 76 years. Ironically BYU will be the last title winner of the future B12 schools and the only title winner in the last 83 seasons. Are they really major conference worthy in Football?

 

[two3zone]

2012 was a bigger hose job. We sat Fab Melo for reasons these other schools would giggle at. Plus that Ohio State game where we were called for more fouls than the entire 6OT game.

2012 team was unstoppable, still think that was the best Cuse team ever.

 

[NKR1978]

2012 team was unstoppable, still think that was the best Cuse team ever.

Wire to wire top 5.

That team had no real weakness.

 

[OrangeDW]

2012 was a bigger hose job. We sat Fab Melo for reasons these other schools would giggle at. Plus that Ohio State game where we were called for more fouls than the entire 6OT game.

I’ve never watched a game and had the feeling that it was scripted, other than that one. Felt like a WWE angle. The narrative was “Aaron Craft wins no matter what”, as the commentators pumped his story literally the entire broadcast.

 

[Newhouser]

Great team and we got robbed against OSU, but we didn't play great in the tourney. Struggled in opener and the Wisconsin game was a battle. Also not sure we beat AD, Gilchrist and Kentucky. I still think our best chance to get JB #2 was the Rautins/Wes team.

 

[realorange]

"The Tournament" documentary on the ACC network, speaks specifically to K changing his attitude on recruiting to one and done.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Great team and we got robbed against OSU, but we didn't play great in the tourney. Struggled in opener and the Wisconsin game was a battle. Also not sure we beat AD, Gilchrist and Kentucky. I still think our best chance to get JB #2 was the Rautins/Wes team.

The Wisconsin game SU shot 55% from the field and 55% from 3PT land. Even defensively they were great, Wisconsin just made a few really tough shots to keep it close.

 

[syrBossHogg]

To get back on topic, Duke did make the Elite Eight twice in that span. I think it just shows that the tourney can be somewhat of a crapshoot.

 

[ThePoint]

I’ve never watched a game and had the feeling that it was scripted, other than that one. Felt like a WWE angle. The narrative was “Aaron Craft wins no matter what”, as the commentators pumped his story literally the entire broadcast.

The Buckeyes made 13 of 14 free throws in the final 68 seconds and finished 31 of 42 from the line.

Syracuse was called for 29 fouls.

 

[CardiacCuse]

"The Tournament" documentary on the ACC network, speaks specifically to K changing his attitude on recruiting to one and done.

for the level of access they have to recruits - 2 titles in the last 20 years is weak af. theyve been getting EVERY PLAYER THEY WANT basically

same with kentucky under cal who really only won with anthony davis, iirc

since the coaches of duke and kentucky arent really adding much in terms of win percentage...it comes down to being the elite squad for the generational talents once they come

the one and done strategy works because it convinces the anthony davis' and zions to come to your school

but it doesnt work in other seasons when you dont have a transcendent talent

thing is - what is the alternative???

players dont stay long enough to build a team anymore anyway...might as well take what you can get...(although schools like villanova and uva have shown that continuity and good coachin will trump one and done factories)


to me, its like the way a lot of people look at electing a president - best of bad options

rather keep my dibbs on the best players until a once a decade star comes along and comes to my school...

2 titles is still pretty good...but I think it shows that coach K really wasnt all that great compared to the talent he had over the last few decades imo...

if you gave any decent p5 coach every recruit they want for 20 years...wouldnt most win a title or two???

 

[OrangeDW]

The Buckeyes made 13 of 14 free throws in the final 68 seconds and finished 31 of 42 from the line.

Syracuse was called for 29 fouls.

Meanwhile Aaron Craft probably committed 29 uncalled fouls.

 

[djorange1989]

2012 team was unstoppable, still think that was the best Cuse team ever.

Agree, 1989 had the best talent for the starting 5, 2010 had the best chemistry but 2012 had it all. Except for a center who would do his own schoolwork

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

Wire to wire top 5.

That team had no real weakness.

Except for Fab Melo being at Chuck's every night.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Likely could argue this a bit, but it seems that Coach K began his leap into the 1-And-Done business with his 2014-15 squad (UK was already there). That team featured freshman Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, Tyus Jones and Grayson Allen. They won it all, beating Wisconsin in the title game by five points.

So, how did he do overall? Was it worth it to not be able to work with and coach players for 3-4 years at a time? To me, it appeared to hinder the results.
At quick glance, however, it seems he largely met the standards he set in his initial 35 seasons at Duke ("Old Duke").
Good for him. Sucked for everyone else. But, hey, it's over, ... so there is that!

View attachment 216334

Yes. Next question.

 

[NineOneSeven]

2010 team is no worse than a top 3 Syracuse team. The numbers back that up. I've shared data on this before (I was a soph in college at the time), because it was a treat to watch that team. Legitimately 7 starters on the team and each one put up starting numbers.

 

[longtimefan]

Assuming the 1-and-Done Era began at Kentucky in 2009-10 when Calipari arrived and brought in Wall and Cousins; and Duke joined the club in 2014-15 with Jones, Winslow, etal (although Jabari Parker was there a season earlier), that's 21 seasons between the two where they each had Top 3 classes every year. And 2 championships between them. Is that underperforming?

 

[OttoMets]

2010 team is no worse than a top 3 Syracuse team. The numbers back that up. I've shared data on this before (I was a soph in college at the time), because it was a treat to watch that team. Legitimately 7 starters on the team and each one put up starting numbers.

Also, they improved in February. I can think of one other SU team that did that: the 2003 group.

A lot of SU teams sort of wheeze toward the finish line, even 2012 tightened up and wasn't playing its best ball late. Not 2010. They killed it against Nova and St. John's, Rick Jackson was really coming into his own, they had an understandable blip in the last game at Freedom Hall, but Wes was finally healthy and everything was set for a big run.