This year is interesting. Used to be Gonzaga was a sure bet on a -35.5 spread. Now, you wonder if they can cover -12.5. I found out they could not. I think that a lot of teams have the 4th/5th/6th/7th year players and it has made a huge difference in having the teams converge to a mean.
I believe this team as young and we will get better as the season progressed. Also would love to finish 5th in the ACC. That would mean we have 14-6 or a 13-7 ACC record. That is a 8/9/10 seed in the NCAA's.
You can't assume a 14-6 or 13-7 record in the ACC gets us such a seed. The ACC is about as good as it was last year in OOC -- maybe jut a tad better, as the stumbling Big East helps.
Last year Wake was 13-7 in the ACC, and had only one loss OOC (to LSU, a tourney team). Their OOC did not stink like ours, although the quality of their OOC wins were about as bad as it could get. They were right on the bubble line entering the tournament - nowhere near an 8/9 seed. And then blew it vs BC in the first round of the ACC tourney.
A few things to note (us vs Wake)
- Wake's worst OOC loss was to a 6 seed in LSU. We already have WTH bad losses to Bryant and Colgate.
- Wake did have a terrible OOC win profile - one of the worst ever - so many sub 270 team. But even if we win out we have nothing good in our OOC. Those 7 wins would be against teams with a current record of 20-39.