Ennis now 8th to Lakers in Ford's latest mock draft

[jncuse]

I don't think getting to the 1st paycheck faster adds security to getting the 2nd paycheck. I think getting better as a player all around, and adding the missing pieces ( especially for a player as slight and undersized by NBA standards as Ennis is) to their game is investing in that 2nd paycheck.

It doesn't add security to the 2nd paycheck.

Its about getting the payday at the age of 23 instead of 24. Say you are an MLE level player the difference of leaving early is not your $1.5 million contract, it's closer to the extra year at $5-7 million.

 

[Knicks411]

Using next year's rookie pay scale, this is what you would get for various spots on the draft over your first 4 years in the league (every rookie contract is 2 guaranteed years and 2 option years; the option years are picked up if you are any kind of player)

First pick: (Tyler isn't going first, but whatever) 9.3 guaranteed, 20.7 with the options.
Fifth pick: 6.2 guaranteed, 13.6 total.
10th Pick: 4.1 vs 9 total
15th pick: 3.1 vs 7.4 total
20th pick: 2.5 vs 5.8
Don't really have a point here, re: Ennis, but those are the numbers.

I would really caution people not to take any quotes about whether or not a guy is going pro seriously until the deadline. Jonny Flynn went on the Michael Kay show in feb or march of 2009 and said he was coming back next year for sure.

As I said before, I don't understand the mindset that a mature player will improve more in the NCAA rather than in the NBA.

I wish I could like this more than once. Guys improve in the NBA all the time. The corollary to this is coming back to school doesn't automatically improve your stock.

 

[Alsacs]

Ennis is close to being a finish product? Man Alsacs, you and I must be watching a totally different player. The Tyler Ennis I watch needs to be more consistent outside and needs to put on strength. Yes, I know his shooting percentages are good, but it's not like hes a high volume shooter, and his range isn't out to the NBA three point line. It literally takes forever for him to get a jump shot off. His release is slow. If Tyler comes out this year hes less likely to receive that second contract you are talking about, than if he stays another year.

More consistent from outside? Maybe Ennis doesn't shoot as much volume as he could, but the kid can shoot the ball when he is wide open. He isn't Rajon Rondo as a shooter was my freaking point. Is the kid 100% developed no, but for a Freshman is more developed than a lot of PG prospects. PGs aren't supposed to be high volume shooters they are supposed to facilitate the offense and keep everyone involved, and when they are open shoot the ball. What a joke he is less likely to see a 2nd contract if he comes out this year? Ennis is developed beyond comprehension for his age. Can he get better of course, but his deficiencies lack of height, elite athleticism can't be achieved remaining in college. The kid will put on 10-15lbs whether its from the SU S&C coach or in the NBA Summer league with that team's S&C coach. I compared Ennis to Mike Conley a few weeks ago, and he was a 1 and done player and has had a nice NBA career. I think Ennis could do the same things as Conley.

 

[Orangezoo]

It doesn't add security to the 2nd paycheck.

Its about getting the payday at the age of 23 instead of 24. Say you are an MLE level player the difference of leaving early is not your $1.5 million contract, it's closer to the extra year at $5-7 million.

Would be interesting to see how many more guys have gotten that going as frosh vs waiting a year. I disagree and think its smarter for a player like Ennis to wait. Don't forget he is undersized vs todays PG's and slight. Thats not something that translates well to 82 games. Its also something that can be challenging on defense as players will look to post him up in the pros. He needs to get stronger, be a more consistent threat shooting the ball ( and be more comfortable doing it more frequently). MCW earned his 2nd paycheck really early which is somewhat unusual but his mental approach to the game and off the court helped. I don't think 1 year sooner does much at all. If anything you add a year of wear and tear on a body not yet prepared and can reduce value on the backend of your 3rd or 4th contract.

 

[Knicks411]

He can get stronger in the off-season, (I bet NBA teams might even have better strength and conditioning programs than college teams) and it's not like he's going to get any taller staying in school for another year.

It's not an open and shut case either way, don't get me wrong. But a lot of times coming back to school for a year hurts your draft stock; everyone has flaws, and the longer you are in college the more time teams have to see them

If anything you add a year of wear and tear on a body not yet prepared and can reduce value on the backend of your 3rd or 4th contract.

You're talking 8-10 years down the road for a third or fourth contract; if an extra 50 games in your rookie year wears you down that much 8 years later, you probably weren't destined to be much of a player anyway.

 

[Alsacs]

Let me add I would love Ennis returned next year, but I am a realist. If I was anywhere near Ennis' inner circle I would ask him if he loves the college lifestyle and wants to return or if he wants to play in the NBA because his play this year has justified him being a lottery pick.

 

[Orangezoo]

The real argument then comes down to the individual vs an ideology. Ennis the individual may be a better PG for this team as a frosh than MCW was as a soph but that doesn't mean his game is as ready as MCW's. MCW's measurables were NBA ready in HS aside from needing to eat a little more. So once his game caught up it was money in the bank even if we were all a little surprised. Ennis is a great college PG and one of our best ever. I am not sure that translates to the next level right away, in fact it likely means he sits 1 to 2 years as a pro before getting his full chance to earn that 2nd contract. If he is one of the focal point players in college hoops again, gets stronger and adds a bit more offensive aggression to his game he then can possibly be a guy who plays right away and earns that 2nd contract in his first year in the league. As an individual I don't think going this year is anywhere near a home run easy decision.

 

[BludOrange]

Like most of his peers, his dream is to play in the league. I don't think he came to SU with plans on leaving after one year, so maybe sticking around for a second season is not as hard of a decision for him as it may seem. I think it all comes down to how much he enjoys the college life. He knows there will be money this year or next.

 

[Orangezoo]

He can get stronger in the off-season, (I bet NBA teams might even have better strength and conditioning programs than college teams) and it's not like he's going to get any taller staying in school for another year.

It's not an open and shut case either way, don't get me wrong. But a lot of times coming back to school for a year hurts your draft stock; everyone has flaws, and the longer you are in college the more time teams have to see them



You're talking 8-10 years down the road for a third or fourth contract; if an extra 50 games in your rookie year wears you down that much 8 years later, you probably weren't destined to be much of a player anyway.

If anything our different perspectives highlight how tough a decision it will be. There are so many things to look at here. It just comes down to what he wants. The paradigm shifts as well should we win it all and he be great in the tourney too...

 

[Consigliere]

There is no financial argument for Tyler to stay if the Top 10 projections continue. Look at draft positions, rookie pay scales, relative strengths of draft classes, or any other criteria but a 6'2" PG has a fairly defined ceiling and Tyler's projections are bumping against it now. He only comes back if the allure of a sophomore season carries a relative worth of about $2M in his mind. Jerami, on the other hand is a more interesting case. If he begins to fall out of lottery position you can make a financial argument that he should come back as his ceiling is much higher IMO than the second half of the first round. I'm all in for enjoying the rest of this magical season and preparing myself for a reloading next year but based on recent comments I'm thinking we may see one or both in Orange next year as we go for back to back NCs.

 

[Knicks411]

If anything our different perspectives highlight how tough a decision it will be. There are so many things to look at here. It just comes down to what he wants. The paradigm shifts as well should we win it all and he be great in the tourney too...

If all you're saying is it isn't a slam dunk he should go, then I agree. For every reason to go, there is a reason to come back, and vice versa.

I've said this before, but all JB and his parents plus whoever else is advising him can and should do is get him as much good information as he can, lay out all the options, and let Tyler decide. It's his life and his decision.

 

[Alsacs]

The real argument then comes down to the individual vs an ideology. Ennis the individual may be a better PG for this team as a frosh than MCW was as a soph but that doesn't mean his game is as ready as MCW's. MCW's measurables were NBA ready in HS aside from needing to eat a little more. So once his game caught up it was money in the bank even if we were all a little surprised. Ennis is a great college PG and one of our best ever. I am not sure that translates to the next level right away, in fact it likely means he sits 1 to 2 years as a pro before getting his full chance to earn that 2nd contract. If he is one of the focal point players in college hoops again, gets stronger and adds a bit more offensive aggression to his game he then can possibly be a guy who plays right away and earns that 2nd contract in his first year in the league. As an individual I don't think going this year is anywhere near a home run easy decision.

It depends on the team that drafts him. Again look at Mike Conley. There was no chance I would have thought before the 2007 draft Mike Conley would be the 4th pick, but he went to Memphis and has played really well. This year he barely missed making the All-Star game in the stacked Western Conference. I don't think Ennis is Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, or Derrick Rose. However, the kid has shown enough athleticism to be a player in the NBA. Also, MCW needs to improve his shot still in the NBA to become an All-Star. MCW has shown enough to stick around for a while in the NBA because of his rebounding, steal potential, but if he wants to be an All-Star which he can he needs to improve his shooting even more. I think Ennis shoots better than MCW. If MCW had this year's Cooney with his dribble drive potential he would have had better assist numbers. MCW is still more careless with the ball than Ennis is. One of Ennis strengths is that he doesn't turn the ball over that much and increases our offensive efficiency as a result of that.

 

[Orangezoo]

If all you're saying is it isn't a slam dunk he should go, then I agree. For every reason to go, there is a reason to come back, and vice versa.

I've said this before, but all JB and his parents plus whoever else is advising him can and should do is get him as much good information as he can, lay out all the options, and let Tyler decide. It's his life and his decision.

I am saying its a tough decision and I am on team stay. I honestly think it makes next year a crowded mess at guard if he returns but right now I think he should stay. Again thats right now...

 

[MikeSU02]

IMO - I think the plan has always been 2 years and done (barring something unforeseen happening).

I think that is still the plan as of today.

But if he keeps up this play AND we make a deep run (Final Four)... I think things change. If he starts pushing up on the top five consistently with the information at hand, he has to go, and I believe he would go, imo.

 

[Orangezoo]

It depends on the team that drafts him. Again look at Mike Conley. There was no chance I would have thought before the 2007 draft Mike Conley would be the 4th pick, but he went to Memphis and has played really well. This year he barely missed making the All-Star game in the stacked Western Conference. I don't think Ennis is Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, or Derrick Rose. However, the kid has shown enough athleticism to be a player in the NBA. Also, MCW needs to improve his shot still in the NBA to become an All-Star. MCW has shown enough to stick around for a while in the NBA because of his rebounding, steal potential, but if he wants to be an All-Star which he can he needs to improve his shooting even more. I think Ennis shoots better than MCW. If MCW had this year's Cooney with his dribble drive potential he would have had better assist numbers. MCW is still more careless with the ball than Ennis is. One of Ennis strengths is that he doesn't turn the ball over that much and increases our offensive efficiency as a result of that.

Which will make tyler an interesting watch with a 24 second shot clock where the right decision has to come faster. Conley is a good example to use. I would hope tylers ceiling is higher but thats orange bias as well.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Guys, this is super simple:

As a player's stock increases during the season, chances that the player returns decrease.

 

[Alsacs]

I would add if the freaking NCAA allowed its players to own their Intellectual Property rights while student athletes. Ennis or any student-athlete could endorse products(maybe not allow them to endorse any company different from their school) he could make decent money and still remain in school. The fact is the kid has earned money with his play this year, and if he wants to get paid he has leave school. Its a joke and why a lot of kids leave as well. They don't make just an NBA salary, but Nike/Adidas/Reebok, beverage companies, they get money for their likeness in NBA video games, fantasy sports etc. This crap is why I would always advise kids to leave unless they want their degree or love college.

 

[Orangezoo]

I would add if the freaking NCAA allowed its players to own their Intellectual Property rights while student athletes. Ennis or any student-athlete could endorse products(maybe not allow them to endorse any company different from their school) he could make decent money and still remain in school. The fact is the kid has earned money with his play this year, and if he wants to get paid he has leave school. Its a joke and why a lot of kids leave as well. They don't make just an NBA salary, but Nike/Adidas/Reebok, beverage companies, they get money for their likeness in NBA video games, fantasy sports etc. This crap is why I would always advise kids to leave unless they want their degree or love college.

The logical road is never the ncaas path of choice

 

[Bayside44]

He is built like an 18 year old, if you think he's gonna get stronger with 50 plus nights a year on the road, well.

He's an awesome college player, needs to get a lot stronger.

 

[two3zone]

I still don't see him as a top 10 pick and maybe not in the lottery. Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see it at all. Could he improve into it next year of course but right now even with his success I don't see it. I'd hate to see him go with all of these mock drafts and what not and see him slip into the 20s.


All of that said if he is a lottery pick he needs to go.

 

[Full_Rebar]

As I said before, I don't understand the mindset that a mature player will improve more in the NCAA rather than in the NBA.

Yes, yes, yes. It doesn't matter how many games they play either. Do you think the SU guys have been doing any real heavy lifting since November? It's all maintenance and NBA players have access to more coaches in every area. This means guys who aren't playing heavy minutes are doing lots of extra work with staff. The notion that the best way to improve as a player is to return to college is baffling to me.