Espn fpi | Syracusefan.com

Espn fpi

Briancuse

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Is giving us a 33 pct chance to win this week how is that possible when md is a 2 pt fav at Home?
 

Melancer46

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Is giving us a 33 pct chance to win this week how is that possible when md is a 2 pt fav at Home?

Because Vegas odds and FPI are two completely different things
 

Rocco

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Kick rocks ESPN.
 

721Comstock

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The FPI is a load of crap. It doesn’t seem to know that Howard is one of the worst teams in the world

Yes, THIS.

BC put up 76 on Howard back in 2015.

Offensive juggernaut, right?

That same BC team lost to ALL 9 P5 teams they played that year, while averaging < 10 points per game while doing so.

Lighting up Howard means exactly diddly regarding how well you might fare against legit competition.
 

chandler101

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What goes into FPI?

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.
 

GoSU96

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It’s screwed up. Maryland is getting a huge bump in FPI vs 48 other systems.
 

GoSU96

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What goes into FPI?

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.

Went from 68 to 34 based on that game.
 

Melancer46

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But it doesnt make sense shouldnt it be closer to 50/50.

No, because again, FPI is a completely different system. FPI doesn't think we're as close to Maryland as Vegas does; it's as simple as that.
 

OttoinGrotto

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What goes into FPI?

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.
Hmm. Coaching tenure.

Interesting.
 

djorange1989

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Yes, THIS.

BC put up 76 on Howard back in 2015.

Offensive juggernaut, right?

That same BC team lost to ALL 9 P5 teams they played that year, while averaging < 10 points per game while doing so.

Lighting up Howard means exactly diddly regarding how well you might fare against legit competition.

one of those 9 losses by BC was to Shafer, that alone dismisses a blowout vs Howard
 

BlueShaq

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FPI screws up a lot in the first few weeks. It bumped maryland up from 68th to 34th just because of the Howard game while we jumped 4 spots up to 41st for shutting out liberty. If you want to check out the average of a lot of sites that use metrics, the massey composite ratings have us at 22nd and Maryland at 56th.
 

texascpa

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Howard lost to Kent St. last year 54-14. Kent St. - coached by Sean Lewis - won 2 games last year. The second win was against Bowling Green - Lewis (and Babers) last gig. Small world.
 

Orangezoo

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What goes into FPI?

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.

It is not a sound predictor though. So maybe it gives credit but it's all on a relative scale. So Howard boosts your numbers significantly and Liberty drops ours. The fact the opponents are ages apart in quality, SU was on the road and you were at home clearly has no correlation. Thus it is significantly flawed. Add the coaching elements into the mix and it becomes basically like a fun metric but with very little use.

As a mathematics lover ( one of my degrees) I appreciate the work and thought but it still is flawed. Looking forward to the game to settle this one!
 

CuseCactus

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All this means is, we will get a constant stream of Desmond, Kirk and Lee saying MD is gonna beat Syracuse.
 

GoSU96

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There are 53 ranking systems, Massey complies 50. He doesn’t include S&P, Phil Steele, and SRS (which isn’t current).

Of the 52 systems that are out there Maryland is ranked higher than SU in 5 of them, FPI being one of those 5.

FPI, S&P, and FEI all discount SU for being a one year wonder, historic recruiting rankings, the way SU won (big plays, turnovers, Dungey factor). They all see last year as an inefficient team being lucky.
 

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