Is giving us a 33 pct chance to win this week how is that possible when md is a 2 pt fav at Home?
But it doesnt make sense shouldnt it be closer to 50/50.Because Vegas odds and FPI are two completely different things
But it doesnt make sense shouldnt it be closer to 50/50.
The FPI is a load of crap. It doesn’t seem to know that Howard is one of the worst teams in the world
What goes into FPI?
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.
A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.
But it doesnt make sense shouldnt it be closer to 50/50.
Hmm. Coaching tenure.What goes into FPI?
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.
A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.
Yes, THIS.
BC put up 76 on Howard back in 2015.
Offensive juggernaut, right?
That same BC team lost to ALL 9 P5 teams they played that year, while averaging < 10 points per game while doing so.
Lighting up Howard means exactly diddly regarding how well you might fare against legit competition.
What goes into FPI?
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.
A lot of weight must be given to the portal transfers. Not sure it’s all on Howard. Shaq and Keandre were very highly rated and the other 3 have proven performance track records, etc. Like it or not, seems the FPI gives this credibility.