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ESPN Matchup Predictor...It aint pretty

cuse309

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#1
On the ESPN team page for Syracuse Football, if you click on each game of the upcoming season, it gives you a "Matchup Predictor" Based on the predictor, we win 4 games. The most shocking part however, is how low of a chance they give us vs. teams like BC and Wake. Yes, Wake, and BC should be favored after both teams demolished us at home, why wouldn't they be? But to basically give us no shot is a slap in the collective facemasks of SU.
Somebody email this to Dino, and tell him to post it in the locker room.

Opponent: Syracuse %Chance to win
WMU 54.5
Wagner 99.2
FSU 28.0
UCONN 93.8
Clemson 3.7
Pitt 41.2
UNC 53.7
NC State 45.2
Wake 27.4
L'Ville 40.5
ND 8.2
BC 24.9

My takeaway:
#1- I'll consider a toss up game, one that gives us anywhere from a 40-60% chance of winning. We have 5 of those.
5 games that could go either way, but we need need need to take at least 3, especially considering one will need to come against WMU, a team most think is just a gimme. Not so fast.

#2- BC, and Wake are in the "unwinnable" range now? Whah????

#3- How freakin' bad must UCONN be?

www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/183/syracuse-orange
 
Joined
Aug 20, 2011
Messages
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#4
If Wake can replace their QB then Ok but doubtful.
They have had a couple good QB, WR, RB the past decade that have kept them in the conversation

I don't know if the new kid Hinton is capable yet I still think they get six wins. Hopefully not us as one

Their depth is in trouble after him though
 

LeMoyneCuse

All Conference
Joined
Aug 20, 2011
Messages
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#7
On the ESPN team page for Syracuse Football, if you click on each game of the upcoming season, it gives you a "Matchup Predictor" Based on the predictor, we win 4 games. The most shocking part however, is how low of a chance they give us vs. teams like BC and Wake. Yes, Wake, and BC should be favored after both teams demolished us at home, why wouldn't they be? But to basically give us no shot is a slap in the collective facemasks of SU.
Somebody email this to Dino, and tell him to post it in the locker room.

Opponent: Syracuse %Chance to win
WMU 54.5
Wagner 99.2
FSU 28.0
UCONN 93.8
Clemson 3.7
Pitt 41.2
UNC 53.7
NC State 45.2
Wake 27.4
L'Ville 40.5
ND 8.2
BC 24.9

My takeaway:
#1- I'll consider a toss up game, one that gives us anywhere from a 40-60% chance of winning. We have 5 of those.
5 games that could go either way, but we need need need to take at least 3, especially considering one will need to come against WMU, a team most think is just a gimme. Not so fast.

#2- BC, and Wake are in the "unwinnable" range now? Whah????

#3- How freakin' bad must UCONN be?

www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/183/syracuse-orange
NC State and Louisville lost lots of pieces and are home games. BC and Wake are peer, but are on the road. That's why.
 

Ish88888

All American
Joined
Oct 25, 2015
Messages
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3,102
#8
On the ESPN team page for Syracuse Football, if you click on each game of the upcoming season, it gives you a "Matchup Predictor" Based on the predictor, we win 4 games. The most shocking part however, is how low of a chance they give us vs. teams like BC and Wake. Yes, Wake, and BC should be favored after both teams demolished us at home, why wouldn't they be? But to basically give us no shot is a slap in the collective facemasks of SU.
Somebody email this to Dino, and tell him to post it in the locker room.

Opponent: Syracuse %Chance to win
WMU 54.5
Wagner 99.2
FSU 28.0
UCONN 93.8
Clemson 3.7
Pitt 41.2
UNC 53.7
NC State 45.2
Wake 27.4
L'Ville 40.5
ND 8.2
BC 24.9

My takeaway:
#1- I'll consider a toss up game, one that gives us anywhere from a 40-60% chance of winning. We have 5 of those.
5 games that could go either way, but we need need need to take at least 3, especially considering one will need to come against WMU, a team most think is just a gimme. Not so fast.

#2- BC, and Wake are in the "unwinnable" range now? Whah????

#3- How freakin' bad must UCONN be?

www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/183/syracuse-orange
 

OrangeinBoston

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Aug 26, 2011
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#9
Knowing what we know AT THIS MOMENT (how will they replace the LBs, how will they replace the WRs, etc., etc. ad nauseam), I see 3 wins on the schedule.
 

Ish88888

All American
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Oct 25, 2015
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#10
Think its very accurate and interesting. Bc and wake are indeed our pivotal games and the % is right based on their recruiting and the fact they ran over us last season.
 

lummgr

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Mar 13, 2013
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#17
Dome vs Death Valley

Also we were probably 1/20 to beat them last year. Just because we rolled our 1 Yahtzee doesn’t indicate we wouldn’t lose the next 19
Yeah I get it. Just thought it was a tad off. But I never thought about the Away aspect. Makes a big difference.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
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Aug 26, 2011
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#18
i think the fact that most every game is a 1 in 3 chance to win or better points to how we could be a 3-4 win or a 8-9 win team.. just having FSU as a 30% shot is something we would never have seen 10 yrs ago
 

OrangeinBoston

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#19
If they win more than that I’ll be looking out for your “Dino got this team to overachieve” post.
No, not at all. The LBs may be fine, the WRs may really have stepped up, and the OL and DL may be much improved. The point is that we won't know this until game 3 (FSU).
 

OrangeDW

Living Legend
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#20
No, not at all. The LBs may be fine, the WRs may really have stepped up, and the OL and DL may be much improved. The point is that we won't know this until game 3 (FSU).
So if the team does overachieve or its players prove to be better than previously thought, Dino gets no credit. Got it.
 

OrangeDW

Living Legend
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#21
We’re a 4 win team. Not sure what people are looking for. If we had back2back top 10 recruiting classes incoming i’d say this is off but we need to flip the script.
I would agree. I don’t think our team is better on paper than we were in 2016 or 2017. If we do go to a bowl, it will be because some young and unproven players really step up and surprise us on units like WR and LB, our stud senior QB stays healthy and carries us, our more experienced OLine proves to be a strength and wins most of the battles in the trenches, and year 3 of our system has us looking machinelike in terms of our comfort with what we’re trying to do style of play wise. I think we can do it. But are we going to flat out, out talent more than a few teams? No.

However we have been recruiting better, and have gotten some stud transfers, and I do think year 4 we will start to out talent more teams, while also starting to consistently outscheme a majority of teams.
 

sufandu

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Aug 30, 2011
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#22
Wait. WMU and UNC are nearly identical? Didn't WMU lose a lot from last year's team and UNC is expected to get a bunch back from injury?

How does the predictor work? Is it simply using last year's results with no regard for annual team turnover, coaching changes, etc?
 

OrangeDW

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#25
That's not how I meant it.
If I misinterpreted, I apologize. I feel like you were pretty tough on Dino at the end of last season.

You said we look like a 3 win team.

Winning more than that would be overachieving, which usually means the coach did a good job getting the most out of his team.

You started with “no, not at all.” So, if those young units come on and the team wins more than you thought they would, you will give Dino some credit, correct?

Just trying to clarify.
 


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