Evan Miya Preseason Roster Projection

[sufan59]

1. Pretty much everyone expected to be positive on offense (Luke Wilson being the exception) and defense. Very deep roster, no weak links expected.

2. Need some here to emerge as the stars of this team and “outperform” their projections. However much they outperform will determine the ceiling of the team. If that doesn’t come at the cost of others underperforming their projections. Because of the lack of weak links this data suggests, this may end up being a very underrated team if they figure out the right combinations.

3. Coaching defining and players buying into their roles. Substitution patterns is extremely important.

4. Coach has a lot of options. He chose allocating resources to depth and having options over relying on a few stars carrying a team. Though they do need some players to outperform their projections to safely make it into the tournament.

 

[Orangezoo]

1. Pretty much everyone expected to be positive on offense (Luke Wilson being the exception) and defense. Very deep roster, no weak links expected.

2. Need some here to emerge as the stars of this team and “outperform” their projections. However much they outperform will determine the ceiling of the team. If that doesn’t come at the cost of others underperforming their projections. Because of the lack of weak links this data suggests, this may end up being a very underrated team if they figure out the right combinations.

3. Coaching and players buying into their roles. Substitution patterns is extremely important.

4. Coach has a lot of options. He chose allocating resources to depth and having options over relying on a few stars carrying a team. Though they do need some players to outperform their projections to safely make it into the tournament.

I like Miya’s site and as a data guy appreciate the approach but this is where modeling gets off the rails. You need real in season data as a team to assess things when there are so many parts here. Not saying this doesn’t play out like this but this is where AI starts to hallucinate or struggle with so many variables and sure looks like there is some AI help here with this kind of modeling.

I wouldn’t spend a long time reading much into this.

 

[wiseman3]

For context, he had us at #66 for the preseason last year. We finished #83...

Personally I don't think this is an NCAA tournament caliber roster as things stand. I hope that changes and I hope I'm wrong

 

[sufan59]

I like Miya’s site and as a data guy appreciate the approach but this is where modeling gets off the rails. You need real in season data as a team to assess things when there are so many parts here. Not saying this doesn’t play out like this but this is where AI starts to hallucinate or struggle with so many variables and sure looks like there is some AI help here with this kind of modeling.

Of course, it's a tool not the determining factor. The same thing with the other tool people love to use is the NIL Budget Leaderboard. Just put some observations. They could've bought some players that would project out at +5.00, but I bet you we see more than 1 player projecting in the -1.00 to -3.00 range because there is a budget. That approach is maybe higher ceiling, lower floor. This is more so looking like a higher floor roster and less high ceiling (but more than enough to accomplish what I think is a year 1 goal of making the NCAA Tournament).

 

[sufan59]

For context, he had us at #66 for the preseason last year. We finished #83...

Personally I don't think this is an NCAA tournament caliber roster as things stand. I hope that changes and I hope I'm wrong

What about the power conference transfers? lol. But curious if you know what Evan Miya preseason projection was for Siena last year? I wouldn't be shocked if it was actually better than where they ended up given all the injuries. But they ended up 140. Actually I just saw Siena was 192 in preseason team ranking and 162 in preseason roster rank. In 2024-2025, Siena ended at 236 and was 290 in preseason team ranking and 278 in preseason roster rank.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I like Miya’s site and as a data guy appreciate the approach but this is where modeling gets off the rails. You need real in season data as a team to assess things when there are so many parts here. Not saying this doesn’t play out like this but this is where AI starts to hallucinate or struggle with so many variables and sure looks like there is some AI help here with this kind of modeling.

I wouldn’t spend a long time reading much into this.

Yeah, well said.

The only certainty to any model is that it will be wrong because things never go exactly by the numbers.

Directional accuracy is helpful though. This model tells me it's not crazy to think the tournament is in reach, but we need to do it. Which is the point of sports anyway.

 

[Orangezoo]

For context, he had us at #66 for the preseason last year. We finished #83...

Personally I don't think this is an NCAA tournament caliber roster as things stand. I hope that changes and I hope I'm wrong

That’s actually interesting… given if you are trying to assess the coaching variable and how much it can prop up or drag down a team. I wonder what the biggest outliers are in variance of start vs finish as well as accuracy in general.

 

[RedtheGOB]

For context, he had us at #66 for the preseason last year. We finished #83...

Personally I don't think this is an NCAA tournament caliber roster as things stand. I hope that changes and I hope I'm wrong

This post is funny because almost every poster saying we aren't a tournament team is saying it's because we have less talent than last year.

EvanMiya is saying we have more talent per the player metrics than last year.

You're saying that we will finish lower because last year we finished lower then preseason expectations.

 

[sufan59]

That’s actually interesting… given if you are trying to assess the coaching variable and how much it can prop up or drag down a team. I wonder what the biggest outliers are in variance of start vs finish as well as accuracy in general.

I have some pretty bad Syracuse data coming, but Gerry over performed his preseason rank and roster rank both years at Siena...

 

[Orangezoo]

Yeah, well said.

The only certainty to any model is that it will be wrong because things never go exactly by the numbers.

Directional accuracy is helpful though. This model tells me it's not crazy to think the tournament is in reach, but we need to do it. Which is the point of sports anyway.

Fair point. It’s probably not a good day to comment on AI when Co-Pilot has been flat out awful and almost unusable this week for me…

 

[Orangezoo]

I have some pretty bad Syracuse data coming, but Gerry over performed his preseason rank and roster rank both years at Siena...

With all this stuff you have to take a Sagarin type of approach honestly when trying to get a feel for it all…

 

[Cusefan0307]

What about the power conference transfers? lol. But curious if you know what Evan Miya preseason projection was for Siena last year? I wouldn't be shocked if it was actually better than where they ended up given all the injuries. But they ended up 140. Actually I just saw Siena was 192 in preseason team ranking and 162 in preseason roster rank. In 2024-2025, Siena ended at 236 and was 290 in preseason team ranking and 278 in preseason roster rank.

Some teams are better and some are worse. It’s still not the Bnoro projections though and that’s the gold standard!

 

[sufan59]

Syracuse

In 2023-2024
End of year Evan Miya rank: 105
Preseason Roster Rank: 75
Preseason Team Rank: 93

In 2024-2025
End of year Evan Miya Rank: 106
Preseason Roster Rank: 61
Preseason Team Rank: 70

In 2025-2026
End of year Evan Miya Rank: 83
Preseason Roster Rank: 49
Preseason Team Rank: 66

Also, did some digging further back. In case you wondering JB last real good coaching job was the 2017-2018. WAY outperformed preseason projections. Even the 2020-2021 team ended up at 35 when preseason projections had the roster at 23 and team rank at 24.

 

[wiseman3]

This post is funny because almost every poster saying we aren't a tournament team is saying it's because we have less talent than last year.

EvanMiya is saying we have more talent per the player metrics than last year.

You're saying that we will finish lower because last year we finished lower then preseason expectations.

I'm not saying that at all. I just gave context from what I could find last year, to try to show the accuracy.

I haven't been big on the Evan Miya analytics to begin with, I think they are helpful but not the end all be all. Ultimately I just don't think that every player on our roster will make the jump that they need to. Dual can be effective in the Southland conference, but can he do it in the ACC? Its the same question with most of our players. I'm just not seeing it. Obviously hope that Im wrong

 

[tptcuse]

As a long time fan, all of these numbers are depressing. We're talking about top 50 or top 100 or whatever. Will we ever be ranked again?

 

[Cusefan0307]

As a long time fan, all of these numbers are depressing. We're talking about top 50 or top 100 or whatever. Will we ever be ranked again?

I mean we have to walk before we run.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I'm not saying that at all. I just gave context from what I could find last year, to try to show the accuracy.

I haven't been big on the Evan Miya analytics to begin with, I think they are helpful but not the end all be all. Ultimately I just don't think that every player on our roster will make the jump that they need to. Dual can be effective in the Southland conference, but can he do it in the ACC? Its the same question with most of our players. I'm just not seeing it. Obviously hope that Im wrong

It works both ways though. Some teams drop and some go up. Miya is extremely high on Dual. He had him as a 5 star transfer. There’s one thing Dual doesn’t do well and that’s shoot, but people think he’s Jaquan Carlos smh.

 

[tptcuse]

I mean we have to walk before we run.

Yup. Doesn't make it any less depressing.

 

[Brooky03]

I'm not saying that at all. I just gave context from what I could find last year, to try to show the accuracy.

I haven't been big on the Evan Miya analytics to begin with, I think they are helpful but not the end all be all. Ultimately I just don't think that every player on our roster will make the jump that they need to. Dual can be effective in the Southland conference, but can he do it in the ACC? Its the same question with most of our players. I'm just not seeing it. Obviously hope that Im wrong

Dual was effective in the Big East as a sophomore and the Big East is viewed as P4 adjacent.

Tobiason, 3M, and Wilson don’t need to make a ‘jump,’ imo. Doty, I suppose, needs to prove he’s good against ACC competition. Kiyan needs to make a jump. Sadiq looked the part as a freshman. Not sure what the ‘jump’ threshold is but he’ll be good if he just has the normal improvement you see from freshman to sophomore year.

 

[Lukeyloo]

As a long time fan, all of these numbers are depressing. We're talking about top 50 or top 100 or whatever. Will we ever be ranked again?

Hate to say it but there’s nothing to suggest that we’ll ever be what we were again. That’s not to say we cant occasionally be good, I’m just talking perennial expectations of being good.

 

[JonB]

For context, he had us at #66 for the preseason last year. We finished #83...

Personally I don't think this is an NCAA tournament caliber roster as things stand. I hope that changes and I hope I'm wrong

Did anyone have the 2002/2003 team winning the national championship? Did anybody have 2009/2010 going 30 and five?

 

[JonB]

This post is funny because almost every poster saying we aren't a tournament team is saying it's because we have less talent than last year.

EvanMiya is saying we have more talent per the player metrics than last year.

You're saying that we will finish lower because last year we finished lower then preseason expectations.

This team is marginally better… as of right now. Probably like 18 to 20 wins? Is anybody going higher than that?

 

[JonB]

As a long time fan, all of these numbers are depressing. We're talking about top 50 or top 100 or whatever. Will we ever be ranked again?

Only if we hired Homer Trump of Clay, NY.

 

[Cusefan0307]

This team is marginally better… as of right now. Probably like 18 to 20 wins? Is anybody going higher than that?

I think we need to get to 20-22 which is fine and possible.

 

[RedtheGOB]

This team is marginally better… as of right now. Probably like 18 to 20 wins? Is anybody going higher than that?

20+ wins is on the table.

-9 NonCon Q3/Q4 games. As always these games must be won. No Hofstra's or Bryant's. 9-0
-4 NonCon Q1 games. Indiana, Providence, SEC Challenge, St Johns MSG?. 1-3
-18 ACC games. 9-9 ideally 10-11 wins.

-We play BC and Pitt 4X times next season (Must wins)
-GT/WF/VT/Cal/ND are really not reloading imo. We should have better talent and coaching than these teams.
-FSU/SMU/Clemson/NCState on the table, Our peer teams in the ACC. Must knock off 1 or 2 of these teams.
-Duke/Louisville/UVA/UNC/Miami getting some separation in the ACC, will have to see how competitive we are.
-ACCT 1 win at least.