Expectations | Syracusefan.com

Expectations

TheCusian

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I always think expectations are a dangerous thing. The tendency is to set it at a win level. The problem with that is that if you get better (perform better, play harder, score more, etc) but your schedule gets tougher - your W/L record may look the same or worse.

Shafer, 2014: 3-9 (SoS: 57th toughest schedule)
Shafer, 2015: 4-8 (SoS: 41st toughest schedule)
Babers, 2016: 4-8 (SoS: 39th toughest schedule)
Babers, 2017: 4-8 (SoS: 8th toughest schedule)

Throw in injuries (esp at QB) and other unforeseen things - and it's pretty dubious to set expectations just at some random W number.

I also think "getting to a bowl" is kind of crap too. Sometimes a 5 win teams get in. Lesser teams from weak conferences but with .500 records play in bowls. Teams we'd beat more often than not. Is 4-8 vs the number 8 SoS worth more than 6 wins in the AAC? No one actually asks these questions (though, I hope Wildhack thinks this way).

Whatever. I think this is reasonable vs this year's schedule:

- A realistic chance to win vs every team we play (Clemson is the obvious outlier, IMO - but last year)
- A more efficient, higher scoring offense
- A better red zone TD %
- Less INT from ED
- A better running game from RB
- More sacks and TFL
- More INT from our secondary
- Less pass yards given up
- Less of a cliff if ED goes out due to injury on both offense and defense (TD should provide more than Rex and Mahoney last year, the D should have more faith in TD, and we should still believe the season won't be lost)

Thoughts?
 
I expect the team to qualify for a bowl and get to 7 wins.

I expect us to upset someone on our schedule that might not seem likely on paper.

I expect that we might flirt with the top 25 at some point during the season.

I expect we're going to see the LB unit improve and go from being viewed as a weak link to better than adequate as the season progresses [kind of like DL last season].

I expect our run game is going to improve quite a bit, due to Koda Martin and the best OL depth we've had in a LONG time.

I expect a lot of sentiment about Babers "...only being a 4-8 coach" to die down after this season for good.

I expect the coaches to have something exciting to pitch on the recruiting trail throughout the season.

I expect to leave the 19 year funk this program has been mired in behind, and to never look back.
 
I think what you posted is kind of a cop-out. Your expectation is basically "improvement." That can mean a lot of things. In spite of your equivocation (what you said about bowls and w's and l's is not necessarily invalid), I'd like you to look at SU's schedule and give a real prediction for where this team winds up.

FWIW, I think this is a 5-win team. We win @WMU, Wagner, and UCONN. We pull two more wins from FSU, @Pitt, UNC, NC State, or Lousiville. We lose Clemson, @*ND, @Wake, and @BC. If we are going bowling, we have to beat UNC. That is a home game coming off a bi-week.
 
The spirit expressed above (concrete improvement in X,Y,Z) is completely appropriate. It's silly to get caught up in a random win total with so many factors out of the team's control.

However, as a fan with a gut reaction I'll always be disappointed with a .500 season or worse. I'm not used to a new world where crappy 6-6 teams get to bowl games and while my brain understands why that'd be a good thing, instinctively I want more.

So all that improvement above, yeah - very good. And 8-4 would be some nice numbers to go with it.
 
At bare minimum it has to be 5 wins and had we have to actually stay competitive for the last quarter of the season and not repeat the last two years. Seeing general improvement is fine and I won't say it bowl game or bust as the schedule is again very difficult but we need to see this team/program give a sustained effort throughout the course of the season especially late in the year when were playing mostly peer programs. The overall roster depth and talent seems to be the best it has been in a long time so I am cautiously optimistic. LB and WR remain gigantic issues at this point that I hope can have some clarity by the end of the Wagner game.
 
The spirit expressed above (concrete improvement in X,Y,Z) is completely appropriate. It's silly to get caught up in a random win total with so many factors out of the team's control.

However, as a fan with a gut reaction I'll always be disappointed with a .500 season or worse. I'm not used to a new world where crappy 6-6 teams get to bowl games and while my brain understands why that'd be a good thing, instinctively I want more.

So all that improvement above, yeah - very good. And 8-4 would be some nice numbers to go with it.

Based on what we have dealt with since 2012/2013 I would absolutely sign up for a 6-6 type season with this schedule and the question marks at LB/WR. Is an 8-4 record possible, sure we came close last year in 2-3 games we could have easily won but just getting to 6-6 would go along way to show that this team is on an upward trajectory and it would be a nice recruiting boost to the current class that is a bit underwhelming in terms of higher end commits.
 
Cusian makes fair points and I like the research here on the expectations. I do think we have an opportunity to do damage in year 3 of Dino's regime b/c he has alot of his guys now, a senior qb, a do-able schedule and ZERO expectations. we should be able to sneak up on some teams.

Being in the ACC isn't our SoS going to be top every year no matter what. We're in the 3rd SEC division if you ask me and that is never gonna change. The strength of schedule is something we have to just deal with. Scheduling mediocre teams to offset it is the right move and will allow us to win bolster our win total.

The program needs bowl appearances, extra practices, the PR of being on the upswing, etc.

To me this is the most intriguing season in a very very long time. The honeymoon is over for Dino in a good way b/c i think he wants the expectations high and mighty and he wants his guys in place to meet them.
 
Based on what we have dealt with since 2012/2013 I would absolutely sign up for a 6-6 type season with this schedule and the question marks at LB/WR. Is an 8-4 record possible, sure we came close last year in 2-3 games we could have easily won but just getting to 6-6 would go along way to show that this team is on an upward trajectory and it would be a nice recruiting boost to the current class that is a bit underwhelming in terms of higher end commits.

Part of the reason I'm being greedy is because I remember 2013 as not being much fun at all. Brisley's punt return was cool, though.

In the end, anything that gives Dino a little ammunition for recruiting is obviously a good thing. But at some point SU's gotta get back to winning twice as often as they lose. I miss those seasons.
 
Part of the reason I'm being greedy is because I remember 2013 as not being much fun at all. Brisley's punt return was cool, though.

In the end, anything that gives Dino a little ammunition for recruiting is obviously a good thing. But at some point SU's gotta get back to winning twice as often as they lose. I miss those seasons.



Step 1 -- turn over the roster, get bigger / faster / more athletic players who fit the new system

Step 2 -- win games, get back to bowls

Step 3 -- optimize, and get to double digit-win seasons

Rome isn't built in a day [not suggesting that was your point]. Time will tell whether we're somewhere in between steps 1 and 2, or whether we attain #2 this year.
 
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Dino wasn’t given a lot as the NFL has told us.
I just expect him to develop the roster and increase the depth. He has shown he can beat more talented teams. We have beaten a team in the ACC title game each year he has been here.

We need P5 talent across the board. It will never be elite P5 talent until we win but we need players.

I am confident in Dino so I am patient. I look at what Marrone had and brought in and what Shafer had and brought in. Our biggest problem since 2000 has been we haven’t had a good college HC who gets it till Dino.
Marrone is a good coach but he was a pro coach not a college coach.

Just get better is all I care about.
 
I don’t want to completely undermine my bit about W/L and bowl games - but I do think we’ll hit 6 wins and a bowl this year and casual fans and the media will give us credit. I also want more :).
 
Cusian makes fair points and I like the research here on the expectations. I do think we have an opportunity to do damage in year 3 of Dino's regime b/c he has alot of his guys now, a senior qb, a do-able schedule and ZERO expectations. we should be able to sneak up on some teams.

Being in the ACC isn't our SoS going to be top every year no matter what. We're in the 3rd SEC division if you ask me and that is never gonna change. The strength of schedule is something we have to just deal with. Scheduling mediocre teams to offset it is the right move and will allow us to win bolster our win total.

The program needs bowl appearances, extra practices, the PR of being on the upswing, etc.

To me this is the most intriguing season in a very very long time. The honeymoon is over for Dino in a good way b/c i think he wants the expectations high and mighty and he wants his guys in place to meet them.
I think you mean 2nd SEC division. The SEC East is garage. Don't sell the Atlantic short. It is a top 3 division in all of football.
 
I think what you posted is kind of a cop-out. Your expectation is basically "improvement." That can mean a lot of things. In spite of your equivocation (what you said about bowls and w's and l's is not necessarily invalid), I'd like you to look at SU's schedule and give a real prediction for where this team winds up.

FWIW, I think this is a 5-win team. We win @WMU, Wagner, and UCONN. We pull two more wins from FSU, @Pitt, UNC, NC State, or Lousiville. We lose Clemson, @*ND, @Wake, and @BC. If we are going bowling, we have to beat UNC. That is a home game coming off a bi-week.

I don’t think it’s a cop out at all. I was pretty specific at pointing out things that need to get better that I expect to get better. If a majority of those things happen, I expect we’ll be bowling.
 
Expecting a rebound season, nearly akin to 2012, with 7 regular season wins.

Why? Both lines are better -- defense will surprise our fans. Across the OL and TE, we are better than any group since 2012. Senior QB and other seniors in key roles. Only need 1 young WR to emerge in a big way; 1 young LB to emerge; and a few surprising inputs from RsF or true F, with many possible candidates. Not that much to ask. Most fans are depressed, so it will take a few games to realize that this team is actually good.
 
The program needs bowl appearances, extra practices, the PR of being on the upswing, etc.

Well put... this is always my goal. Get to a Frickin' Bowl!

FWIW, I think it is critical that Dino succeed here. He gets fired or leaves without succeeding, and we will be viewed as program beyond help. That being said, I am optimistic for this season - 6 or 7 wins - and even more optimistic about next season.
 
Well put... this is always my goal. Get to a Frickin' Bowl!

FWIW, I think it is critical that Dino succeed here. He gets fired or leaves without succeeding, and we will be viewed as program beyond help. That being said, I am optimistic for this season - 6 or 7 wins - and even more optimistic about next season.

Yup. To think we were a couple plays away from making a bowl before November last year. We easily could’ve been sitting at 6-3 and already eligible.

I am not sure what to make of our receivers this year, but if they get the job done and our best players stay healthy I like our bowl chances.

And next year we will be putting multiple stud 4 star recruits out there on offense. I think this thing really takes off in years 4 and 5.
 

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