FO: Cuse offense ranks 39th in "methodical drives"

[fanfanclubclub]

Football Outsiders ranks the Cuse offense at #57 in the country right now.

We score poorly in four of the five metrics that are most highly correlated with offensive production:
* 106th in first downs
* 87th in percentage of available yards gained
* 110th in percentage of drives with an average of 10+ yards per play-
* 82nd in drives from our territory to the opponents 30 yard line

but we ranked a strong 39th in the fifth highly predictive metric:
* 39th in percentage of drives including 10+ plays.

I get really frustrated with check-down, horizontal offenses at the college level, but this is at least some evidence that our short pass strategy of moving the chains hasn't been a disaster. These stats also confirm what we already know about our offenses weaknesses.

I think FO has the Cuse offense too high, in part because their influx OSOS metric seems to overrate the defenses of our previous opponents. I expect that will stabilize as the sample size increases, but then again, Rutgers and Louisville have good defenses, maybe FO is right to give us some credit for our opponents.

FO ranks Cuse 46th overall, 32nd on defense, and 48th on special teams.

 

[svennyi]

Fanfan,
I was about to post these stats today. I am glad to see another FO fan.

I follow the FEI metric on Football Outsiders quite a bit. Essentially, the FEI metric adjusts for opponent strength and doesn't count statistics against FCS schools or garbage-time drives (there is a specific time/score classification).

I think they have Syracuse pegged. The only way the Syracuse offense currently has success is with sustained drives, so with SU ranking high in methodical offense (10+ plays) it makes sense. Against West Virginia, the score was so high because our 3rd down conversions were great and we were able to sustain drives. When we don't convert, we lack the explosiveness to stretch defenses and score. In fact, we are one of the worst in the country (110th out of 120).

Defensiviely, Syracuse scores 32nd overall but a look behind the numbers shows a worse story:
* 70th on First Down yards allowed
* 65th in available yards allowed
* 80th in explosive drives allowed (avg of 10+ yds/play)
* 90th in methodical drives allowed (10+ plays)
* 84th in value drives (start in own end and get to at least opp 30 yd-line)

What saves the defense is the opponent adjustment. We have played the 29th toughest schedule when it comes to offenses.

Before the West Virginia game, Syracuse was ranked 63rd and predicted 7 wins. The West Virginia game was an aberration which shot them to 33rd. I think mid 40s to 60s is probably where we realistically stand at the end of the year.

The good news is that Syracuse has the 70th hardest schedule down the stretch, so the toughest part is behind us

 

[GoSU96]

Football Outsiders ranks the Cuse offense at #57 in the country right now.

We score poorly in four of the five metrics that are most highly correlated with offensive production:
* 106th in first downs
* 87th in percentage of available yards gained
* 110th in percentage of drives with an average of 10+ yards per play-
* 82nd in drives from our territory to the opponents 30 yard line

but we ranked a strong 39th in the fifth highly predictive metric:
* 39th in percentage of drives including 10+ plays.

I get really frustrated with check-down, horizontal offenses at the college level, but this is at least some evidence that our short pass strategy of moving the chains hasn't been a disaster. These stats also confirm what we already know about our offenses weaknesses.

I think FO has the Cuse offense too high, in part because their influx OSOS metric seems to overrate the defenses of our previous opponents. I expect that will stabilize as the sample size increases, but then again, Rutgers and Louisville have good defenses, maybe FO is right to give us some credit for our opponents.

FO ranks Cuse 46th overall, 32nd on defense, and 48th on special teams.

There are two things that are killing SU's yardage numbers. Number of plays run. 101st or so. And lack of long plays from scrimmage. 105th.

When they get to the redzone they are solid. They aren't awful in converting 3rd downs, and they don't beat themselves with turnovers. What's a struggle is getting to the redzone, every play is a grind, nothing is easy and they aren't eating up big chunks of yards.

That's what I meant by competent, which some people seemed to be offended by.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

There are two things that are killing SU's yardage numbers. Number of plays run. 101st or so. And lack of long plays from scrimmage. 105th.

When they get to the redzone they are solid. They aren't awful in converting 3rd downs, and they don't beat themselves with turnovers. What's a struggle is getting to the redzone, every play is a grind, nothing is easy and they aren't eating up big chunks of yards.

That's what I meant by competent, which some people seemed to be offended by.

Right, I did not mean this as a post "proving that SU has a competent offense." I agree with what you said, as I'm also frustrated with this offense, I merely found it interesting that we have sustained many "methodical" drives this year, even though few of them started in our own territory. This peculiarity demonstrates our dink-and-dunk strategy: we have a lot of drives with more than 10 plays, but very few drives stretching from our own territory to the opponent's 30 yard line. So we are playing well when we start with good field position, but we are also taking 10+ plays to finish some of those short drives.

Like with most things Marrone, it works better than it looks. This is a frustrating offense, but an interesting one.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

Fanfan,
I was about to post these stats today. I am glad to see another FO fan.

I love FO. Too bad Barnwell left for Grantland. Expect to see Schatz and some of his assistants in an NFL front office within a year or two.

 

[Millhouse]

There are two things that are killing SU's yardage numbers. Number of plays run. 101st or so. And lack of long plays from scrimmage. 105th.

When they get to the redzone they are solid. They aren't awful in converting 3rd downs, and they don't beat themselves with turnovers. What's a struggle is getting to the redzone, every play is a grind, nothing is easy and they aren't eating up big chunks of yards.

That's what I meant by competent, which some people seemed to be offended by.

i need to verify this but there are couple things that could undo them being 39th in drives of 10 plays or more.

what happens on the drives that aren't 10 plays or more. it seems like all or nothing for us

and more explosive offenses are hurt in that stat by scoring in 9 plays or less.

i find it hard to believe that our defense is somehow on the field way too much but manages to be middle of the pack in yards.

if the offense is limited in yards by the number of plays, the flip side of that must be that the defense is giving up lots of yards on a lot of plays.

The defense would have to be a lot worse in yards to be blamed so much for the offenses lack of plays. but they're 69th. not good, but not terrible either.

 

[Millhouse]

We're 105th in 10+ yard plays, 115th in 30+, 109th in 40+

20+ middle of the pack

i think this is a big exercise in cherry picking.

if you're inconsistent but explosive or if you're consistent and methodical, you're going to get yards.

we don't.

so then it becomes well the defense can't get off the field. but the defenses yards aren't that bad.

if lack of plays leads to lack of yards for the offense, then assuming there's an abundance of plays on defense must mean that the defense gives up too many yards. but they don't, they're ranked in the 60s

 

[kingottoiii]

if lack of plays leads to lack of yards for the offense, then assuming there's an abundance of plays on defense must mean that the defense gives up too many yards. but they don't, they're ranked in the 60s

That is a faulty assumption. We have given up a lot of long drives this year on D. The longer the drive the shorter the game. Meaning less yards and less points given up. If our D gives up 80 yard on 12 plays, then a lot more time will have come off the clock vs giving up 80 yards on 6 plays. More time off the clock less yards for both our O and D.

 

[orangehomer]

so the matchup of the game tomorrow will be our 39th ranked methodical offense versus uconn's 1 ranked defense against methodical drives

or uconns 102nd ranked methodical offense versus our 90th ranked defense against methodical drives

who will be able to sustain drives and put points up, or will someone make a big play

 

[Millhouse]

That is a faulty assumption. We have given up a lot of long drives this year on D. The longer the drive the shorter the game. Meaning less yards and less points given up. If our D gives up 80 yard on 12 plays, then a lot more time will have come off the clock vs giving up 80 yards on 6 plays. More time off the clock less yards for both our O and D.

we're 74th in plays allowed.

not good but not that terrible either.

our offense is bad because our offense is bad

sometimes things aren't so complicated.