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sutomcat

Former Iggy Winner. I used to be somebody special
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Welcome to USO Day!

On USO Day we celebrate the anniversary of the United Service Organization that was formed in 1941. The USO shows their appreciation and gratitude to troops (and their families) for the dedication and sacrifices they make. The USO is a non-profit private organization whose mission is "to lift the spirits of America’s troops and their families" (US:confused:rg). Their motto is "Until Everyone Comes Home".


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blogspot.com/2019/02/2019-wsj-valuations.html (RX; HM)

Rk ACC Revenue WSJ Value
26 Clemson 72,218,581 298,051,865
27 Florida State 94,597,591 289,776,745
28 Virginia Tech 65,851,157 278,315,358
36 Georgia Tech 59,422,543 215,013,855
41 Miami 47,820,654 193,474,341
46 NC State 51,911,816 179,255,274
47 Louisville 58,011,677 175,765,264
50 North Carolina 50,024,180 155,246,919
53 Virginia 31,675,701 134,926,313
57 Syracuse 44,613,716 121,057,725
58 Pittsburgh 48,091,636 112,942,437
62 Boston College 37,155,617 81,051,159
64 Wake Forest 32,604,709 76,590,240
66 Duke 35,987,926 67,502,331

...

ACC Football Rx: SEC 2018 Financials (RX; HM)


SEC 2018 Financials

For those of you who keep a close watch on the financial gap (and I know that's quite a few who read this blog based on all of the tips I've been getting from various people) the numbers are starting to come in - first, from the SEC...

The SEC, which has a different fiscal year than the other P5 conferences, has already announced its revenue for the 2018 season (by contrast, the ACC is expected to release 2017 numbers in a few months). What the SEC announced was almost $660 million in revenue to the conference, or almost $44 million each to the 13 member schools that received full shares, with Ole Miss getting about $37 if my math is correct.

That said, USA Today says this is the year that the SEC gets passed by Big Ten in per school distribution.

The SEC had just under $660 million in revenue during its 2018 fiscal year, according to a federal tax return that the conference provided Friday. That resulted in an average of $43.7 million being distributed to the 13 member schools that received full shares. Mississippi did not get a full share because of its football team was banned from postseason play.

The Big Ten Conference likely distributed a little more than $50 million to each of its 12 schools that got full revenue shares in fiscal 2018, according to schools' recent financial disclosures.

The Big Ten, which began new television agreements during the 2018 fiscal year, generally does not file its federal tax return until the spring. So, its revenue total for fiscal 2018 has not yet been made public. However, through open-records requests, USA TODAY Sports has obtained fiscal 2018 financial reports to the NCAA for six of the 12 schools receiving full shares. A seventh school announced the amount of its share last June. Maryland and Rutgers, the conference's two most recent additions, still are moving toward full shares... Nebraska received a full share for the first time in fiscal 2018.
...


ACC Football Rx: B1G Projected Revenue Through 2029 (RX; HM)

From a Rutgers Report on Big Ten Payouts, here's what the Big Ten is projecting for per school payouts from 2018 through 2029:

Year B1G est. dist. ACC est. dist. diff
2018 $50,000,000 $29,500,000 $20,500,000
2019 $51,500,000 $37,400,000 $14,100,000
2020 $53,045,000 $41,800,000 $11,245,000
2021 $54,636,350 $42,200,000 $12,436,350
2022 $56,275,441 $47,100,000 $9,175,441
2023 $57,963,704 $48,000,000 $9,963,704
2024 $59,702,615 $46,800,000 $12,902,615
2025 $61,493,693 $49,700,000 $11,793,693
2026 $63,338,504 $50,600,000 $12,738,504
2027 $65,238,659 $49,500,000 $15,738,659
2028 $67,195,819 $52,400,000 $14,795,819
2029 $69,211,694 $53,300,000 $15,911,694


There are a couple of things which are a little suspicious about the Big Ten's projection, however.

For one, while I've projected with fluctuations due to having/not having Orange Bowl revenue (a 3-year cycle), but they did not seem to account for Rose Bowl payout fluctuations. Perhaps they're using some averaging technique like the SEC uses with the Sugar Bowl? If so, they're not saying.

I've also greyed-out the Big Ten projections after 2023 because that's when their current TV contract runs out. Do they think they'll get even more in their next contract? I'm sure they do! Will they, and if so, how much is anybody's guess. I do think it's worth noting that the closest I can project the ACC coming to the Big Ten is in the last 2 years of that Big Ten's TV contract - after which the B1G expects to grow per team revenue by $2M/year, but I've conservatively projected more like $1M/year.

Something else I don't see explicitly accounted for here are the end of partial payouts to Maryland and Rutgers. The linked article says that $50 million payout for 2018 is for the 12 full-share members ONLY. For example, the article states that Rutgers received less than $10M from the Big Ten in 2018. If we assume for a moment that Maryland got the same amount, then the REAL average payout is not $50 million, but only $44 million - still a lot by ACC standards, but not as high as the media is hyping it up to be.

More to the point - sooner or later (ok, in 2027) Rutgers will start getting a full, equal share. If that had happened this year, the average would've fallen by $6M... someday that effect has to kick in, but it isn't obvious that they accounted for that in the table above.

BOTTOM LINE: Big Ten projections - at least the ones which leak to the public - are almost always exaggerations. Even going with their probably-too-aggressive number versus my possibly-too-conservative ones, I see the ACC pulling back within single-digit millions by 2023... and it could be a lot closer. The SEC is a little harder to predict because of the Tier 1 CBS tv contract coming to an end, but it's probably not too dissimilar - a $20M gap now, closing to within $10M in a few years.


FSU Lands 2020 QB Sims - The Grueling Truth (thegruelingtruth.com; Ferguson)

Florida State’s wait to add a quarterback is over…sort of.

During a Junior Day event on campus Saturday, FSU added 2020 quarterback Jeff Sims, according to a report from Noles247’s Josh Newberg. Sims also has early offers from Boston College, Georgia and Louisville among others.

Not yet listed by the 247Sports Composite rankings, Sims is a pro-style quarterback from Sandalwood High School in Jacksonville. Sims is listed at 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds.

With the addition of Sims, FSU’s 2020 class now has five commitments. Sims is the first quarterback and currently the only definite offensive commit. Jadarius McKnight is listed as an athlete. FSU’s 2020 class currently ranks ninth nationally and third in the ACC.
...


Hurricanes receive two commitments at Junior Day, including So. Fla’s top running back (maimiherald.com; McPherson)


The Miami Hurricanes had a busy Junior Day on Sunday — and it has already resulted in a pair of commitments for first-year head coach Manny Diaz’s 2020 class.

Belen Jesuit running back Don Chaney and Palm Bay Rockledge athlete Ladarius Tennison announced their verbal pledges Sunday. The Hurricanes also received commitments from two South Florida Class of 2021 prospects in South Dade defensive end Tyler Johnson and North Miami linebacker Chamon Metayer.

Picking up Chaney is big for the Hurricanes, who are trying to make sure South Florida’s top players remain in the state. Chaney, a 5-11, 195 pound running back, is ranked as the 50th overall player in the class, second among all Miami-Dade County players and the top South Florida running back, according to the 247Sports composite rankings.
...


Other



51 bald eagles spotted in trees on Onondaga Lake's south end (PS; Figura)


Syracuse dentist Greg Craybas, who was out this morning photographing bald eagles on Onondaga Lake, counted a total of 51 mature and immature birds in the trees on Murphy’s Island behind the Destiny USA mall.

He counted the birds in a panoramic photo he took.

“It’s really unbelievable,” he said this afternoon. “They were just hanging out, bedded down with the cold and all.”

He estimated that with the birds in the trees -- along with others in the air or on the ice looking for food on the lake's south end -- “there has to be over 60 there now.”

Last weekend, Craybas spotted a total of 46 eagles on the lake – 41 in the trees. His photo taken last Saturday (shown above) went viral this past week on Facebook pages frequented by bird watching enthusiasts across the state, he said.

“The lake is very difficult to photograph over as thermal distortion makes it almost impossible to capture anything sharp when you shoot over water when it is single digits,” Craybas said. “I have been photographing in full camouflage in a blind to make the eagles unaware of my presence.

“It is so hard to express the excitement when you have a bald eagle fly right next to you and they do not know you are there.”
...
 
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