Good Article on Use of Analytics with Football Recruiting | Syracusefan.com

Good Article on Use of Analytics with Football Recruiting

FloridaFan

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Reading into it this seems exactly like what Dino is doing. He knows he won’t get a lot of 4’s so they are recruiting for intangibles and working on the skills. I like it though I will admit I do pine for some 4 stars lol
 

upperdeck

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its the NFL model now.. great athletes some terrible football skills and knowledge of the game.

Sport is going that way in many ways.. Baseball, just try to throw hard or hit home runs who cares if you can catch or know what base to throw to.

basketball can you shoot from 30 ft or dunk?
 

Townie72

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its the NFL model now.. great athletes some terrible football skills and knowledge of the game.

Sport is going that way in many ways.. Baseball, just try to throw hard or hit home runs who cares if you can catch or know what base to throw to.

basketball can you shoot from 30 ft or dunk?

A bit of wisdom right here on SyracuseFan.

The baseball line really got me. I watch a lot of it and and I am shocked by what these players don't know or can't do.
 

florange44

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A bit of wisdom right here on SyracuseFan.

The baseball line really got me. I watch a lot of it and and I am shocked by what these players don't know or can't do.
IMO, basketball is even worse at this. I see it from high school on up. They emphasize athletic kids who can run and jump, even though they have no skill, no court awareness, no basketball IQ. Makes the game unwatchable. The high IQ players really stand out, but there are so few any more because the coaches are looking for athletes not basketball players.

Unfortunately, Cuse basketball has been at the forefront of this. Perhaps the trade off is a higher ceiling if you catch lightning in a bottle, but the average season is below many mid-majors that recruit basketball players not athletic freaks. And also IMO, Cuse has not caught lightning in a bottle yet with this strategy. The last good team we had was the Ennis year and he had an excellent basketball IQ.

Florange44
 

Scooch

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A bit of wisdom right here on SyracuseFan.

The baseball line really got me. I watch a lot of it and and I am shocked by what these players don't know or can't do.

The pervasiveness of data enables those who construct teams to boil things down to the bare essentials that predict success. So to your point, over the past 30 years we’ve seen baseball deemphasize stolen bases, bunting, hitting to the opposite field, etc. while finding that high velocity pitching and batting launch angle are the two overwhelming predictors of success. It’s super efficient, but certainly takes the art out of the game.

I don’t blame the players because they’re being coached up on a limited set of skills. The rest are seen as uncorrelated noise in a lot of respects.

All of it should make us appreciate the outliers even more than we do. Eric Dungey is certainly one of those guys. B
 

Townie72

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The pervasiveness of data enables those who construct teams to boil things down to the bare essentials that predict success. So to your point, over the past 30 years we’ve seen baseball deemphasize stolen bases, bunting, hitting to the opposite field, etc. while finding that high velocity pitching and batting launch angle are the two overwhelming predictors of success. It’s super efficient, but certainly takes the art out of the game.

I don’t blame the players because they’re being coached up on a limited set of skills. The rest are seen as uncorrelated noise in a lot of respects.

All of it should make us appreciate the outliers even more than we do. Eric Dungey is certainly one of those guys. B

I initially thought the data-driven Moneyball concept was a great idea because it took down so many time-honored ideas that just didn't work. But it has significantly degraded the game as something to watch.

But now watching the Red Sox "work the count" is excruciating. Drive the pitch count up to 100 when the starter runs out of gas and feast on the bullpen may work, but it's almost unwatchable. I found myself actually enjoying watching some of those guys get a fast ball in the rib cage after fouling away six straight pitches.

Dungey was a throwback, I guess. A sort of Bobby Douglas or Joe Kapp.

Running QBs are great to watch and effective. But the speed of the game and the level of contact means these guys have short playing careers. Just ask the Redskins and RGIII.
 

TheCusian

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Great read. (I'd be really careful about drawing comparisons between this article and baseball and Syracuse basketball. They fall apart quickly.)

It might seem obvious - but as evidenced by the arguments on this board about the star system, prioritizing NYS for kids, etc - there's a whole different metric used by some programs to get to where they want to go. I think based on this article and what we know about Dino, we can infer:

- He has some red lines as far as athleticism that he won't cross - be it for a local kid or someone with stars, etc.
- It works. I'd be shocked if our NFL numbers don't rise starting this year. But in 2-3 years, some kids who we wouldn't peg right now will show out and get drafted out of nowhere.
- It's easier to identify and work with raw athletic kids than it is to land 4* and 5* kids on the regular at Syracuse - unless you pick them up via transfer
 

orangemass

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Should start targeting small slow guys... Untapped demographic...
 

Townie72

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Great read. (I'd be really careful about drawing comparisons between this article and baseball and Syracuse basketball. They fall apart quickly.)

It might seem obvious - but as evidenced by the arguments on this board about the star system, prioritizing NYS for kids, etc - there's a whole different metric used by some programs to get to where they want to go. I think based on this article and what we know about Dino, we can infer:

- He has some red lines as far as athleticism that he won't cross - be it for a local kid or someone with stars, etc.
- It works. I'd be shocked if our NFL numbers don't rise starting this year. But in 2-3 years, some kids who we wouldn't peg right now will show out and get drafted out of nowhere.
- It's easier to identify and work with raw athletic kids than it is to land 4* and 5* kids on the regular at Syracuse - unless you pick them up via transfer

The Star system is mis-understood.

As explained to me by several D-1 recruiters, the star system is more about readiness to play at the D1 level than it is absolute skill level and physical attributes. This explain the large number of 3 Stars that are drafte by the NFL.

5 Star - will most likely play/contribute immediately
4 Star - will most likely play/contribute after one year.
3 Star - will most likely play/contribute after two years.

4 and 5 Stars are by definition rare.
 

bnoro

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The Star system is mis-understood.

As explained to me by several D-1 recruiters, the star system is more about readiness to play at the D1 level than it is absolute skill level and physical attributes. This explain the large number of 3 Stars that are drafte by the NFL.

5 Star - will most likely play/contribute immediately
4 Star - will most likely play/contribute after one year.
3 Star - will most likely play/contribute after two years.

4 and 5 Stars are by definition rare.
What does the numerical Rivals Rating (RR) mean?
6.1 = Five-star prospect
6.0-5.8 = Four-star prospect
5.7-5.5 = Three-star prospect
5.2-5.4 = Two-star prospect
6.1 Franchise Player: considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 30-35 players overall, a potential first-team All American candidate and a player deemed to have first round NFL potential.
6.0-5.8 All American Candidate: considered one of the next-tier elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation’s top 300-325 prospects overall, a national All American candidate and a player deemed to have first to third round NFL potential
5.7-5.5 All Region Selection: considered among the region’s top prospects and generally among the nation’s top 800-850 prospects overall, a potential All-Conference candidate and a player deemed to have mid to low-end pro potential and ability to impact at the college level.
5.2-5.4 Low End FBS prospect: considered a mid-major prospect with limited pro potential and expected to contribute 1-2 years at a high level maximum or often as a role player.
*At the end of National Signing Day, any prospect that signs with an FBS program, and we have not evaluated, will be assigned a 5.2 Rivals Rating (RR).
 

RandomGuy

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I want an all Sumo offense. Im quite certain they would score(walk the ball slowly) every time they touched the ball. 6,000 lbs. Unstoppable.
 
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FloridaFan

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What does the numerical Rivals Rating (RR) mean?
6.1 = Five-star prospect
6.0-5.8 = Four-star prospect
5.7-5.5 = Three-star prospect
5.2-5.4 = Two-star prospect
6.1 Franchise Player: considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 30-35 players overall, a potential first-team All American candidate and a player deemed to have first round NFL potential.
6.0-5.8 All American Candidate: considered one of the next-tier elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation’s top 300-325 prospects overall, a national All American candidate and a player deemed to have first to third round NFL potential
5.7-5.5 All Region Selection: considered among the region’s top prospects and generally among the nation’s top 800-850 prospects overall, a potential All-Conference candidate and a player deemed to have mid to low-end pro potential and ability to impact at the college level.
5.2-5.4 Low End FBS prospect: considered a mid-major prospect with limited pro potential and expected to contribute 1-2 years at a high level maximum or often as a role player.
*At the end of National Signing Day, any prospect that signs with an FBS program, and we have not evaluated, will be assigned a 5.2 Rivals Rating (RR).
Do you think that’s a better system then just an arbitrary star system or is it out of wack as well?
 

OttoinGrotto

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I want an all Sumo offense. Im quite certain they would score every time they touched the ball. 6,000 lbs. Unstoppable.
I read an article in SI a long time ago, might have been a Dr. Z thing, about a coach that tried getting a bunch of sumo wrestlers and basically found out that they dominated for like 2 or 3 plays and then were completely gassed.

Just had the wrong kind of conditioning.
 

RandomGuy

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I read an article in SI a long time ago, might have been a Dr. Z thing, about a coach that tried getting a bunch of sumo wrestlers and basically found out that they dominated for like 2 or 3 plays and then were completely gassed.

Just had the wrong kind of conditioning.
Just take a knee, halfway to the endzone, and have next 11 sumos comeout. While i'm half joking, how does a defense stop a 6000lb ball twice their size? Yeah, its ridiculous. Just might work.
 

billsin01

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Teams are targeting big players who can run. Syracuse is not mentioned but is clearly on top of this as well...


Pretty interesting article particularly in terms of some of the athleticism-based scores they are using. I had a few thoughts while reading it:

1) Instead of leading with the anecdote about Rhule at Temple, I almost feel like it should have been a coach from even further back. I mean, in the 90s a lot of recruiting was assembling a wide network of high school coaches and going from there. By the time Rhule came along the Internet with films all over the place was already pretty much in full force. Even that changed the game massively.

2) Thought it was interesting that like 70% of Baylor's recruits camped there at one point or another. Makes sense and helps, IMO, lend a bit more credibility to the recruits we've signed so far despite their lack of exciting offer sheets or star levels.

3) I wonder if calling it an analytics revolution is a bit strong. I mean, it's really more about the communication advances that give coaches not only more accurate metrics on players but allow them to far more easily canvas a much larger geography. And the metrics themselves, I would argue, haven't changed that much. I mean, was there ever a time that a program outside the blue blood circle wasn't trying to find as many kids with size and speed as humanly possible? I get that maybe they don't go by film nearly as much but I think folks still ideally want size and speed everywhere and are willing to live without the size if they have to as long as there is big time speed/quickness.

4) Just another comment on the star system -- b/c I can't help myself -- I find it really funny that the difference between a low-end recruit who may never contribute (5.2) and a high-end franchise player (6.1) is .9 on the scale. These services/sites essentially set themselves up such that they can basically throw all but the top 250 and maybe a collection of players at the very lowest end in essentially the same pool -- basically somewhere between 5.4 and 5.8 or so (and I know that's just rivals but it works about the same at the other sites). That's not by accident, IMO, b/c it allows them to sort of infer that most good two-stars and all three stars are almost equal. That's the major flaw in these systems, IMO. The question isn't how many stars you have, per se, it's did you sign Jay Bromley (a two-star from a non-traditional football rich area, with no offers and absolutely zero fanfare but tremendous size and athleticism) or Lavar Lobdell (a 4-star that we were super excited to sign but wound up offering the program essentially nothing)? That's a question, for the most part, the services can't tell us.
 

TheCusian

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The Star system is mis-understood.

As explained to me by several D-1 recruiters, the star system is more about readiness to play at the D1 level than it is absolute skill level and physical attributes. This explain the large number of 3 Stars that are drafte by the NFL.

5 Star - will most likely play/contribute immediately
4 Star - will most likely play/contribute after one year.
3 Star - will most likely play/contribute after two years.

4 and 5 Stars are by definition rare.

Yep. Many of the discussions I mentioned touched on this same point. Good reminder, for sure.

The article was more about how to identify what 3* could turn into more than a contributor, best case NFL guy in a sea of 3* talent.
 

nzm136

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was this ever a question?
No kidding

The hard hitting journalism necessary to come to the conclusion that football coaches like athletic players who are both strong and fast is dangerously close to being good enough to land the diversity editor gig at the New York Times.

Stay tuned for next week’s article where he covers football coaches who really like quarterbacks that are good at throwing things.
 
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