How good are we?

[TheCusian]

I was looking at some stats and started wondering - how does this team stack up historically?

Obviously, we are 7 games in and our number this year will shift as they are played - but still - a fun exercise. SRS is a simple rating system that takes strength of schedule and average point differential into account. 0 is average per a given year. We were -12.92 in the asterisk year of our lord (2020). In 2018 we were 12.14.

Year/HC/Record	SRS
1959 / Schwartzwalder / 11-0	23.36
1987 / MacPherson / 11-0-1	16.47
1996 / Pasqualoni / 9-3	16.99
2022 / Babers / 6-1	16.90

Ok, and now the original reason for digging, where do we rank vs the remaining teams? (Split O and D and overall SRS):

Team	Offensive SRS, ACC Rank	Defensive SRS, ACC Rank	Overall SRS, ACC Rank	National Ranking (SRS)
Syracuse	6.17, #7	10.73, #2	16.90, #2	10th
ND	1.38, N/A	6.97, N/A	8.35, N/A	33rd
@PITT	6.37, #6	-2.48, #12	3.87, #9	58th
FSU	7.19, #4	5.11, #6	12.30, #5	23rd
@Wake	12.58, #2	3.44, #7	16.01, #3	11th
@BC	-2.37, #11	-3.19, #13	-5.56, #13	102nd

Interesting nuggets:
- Better than everyone left on the schedule? That's what these stats say
- Wake is polar opposite of us as far as O and D
- Pitt's O is way better than their D? They have a poor defense? Nard-dog u ok
- From hardest remaining games, to easiest: Wake > FSU > ND > PITT > BC

 

[David332]

Very good

 

[RF2044]

Very interesting breakdown. After the hot start, I've rebaselined my expectations to 9 wins as the floor.

Think 10-2 is most likely. 11-1 is still a possibility. Need to rebound from last week's disappointing outcome to beat ND at home, and right the ship.

Great place to be, given that we were picked to finish in last place before the season!

 

[TheCusian]

Very interesting breakdown. After the hot start, I've rebaselined my expectations to 9 wins as the floor.

Think 10-2 is most likely. 11-1 is still a possibility. Need to rebound from last week's disappointing outcome to beat ND at home, and right the ship.

Great place to be, given that we were picked to finish in last place before the season!

Agree 100%

I think ND is an interesting test for the offense as the best remaining D.

 

[Chip]

We will be the first 12 win team in school history.

 

[TheCusian]

We will be the first 12 win team in school history.

Winning the remaining games will be hard because football is weird, but if we do? Our bowl game would be New Years vs someone very good.

A fun ride, no matter what.

 

[721Comstock]

I was looking at some stats and started wondering - how does this team stack up historically?

Obviously, we are 7 games in and our number this year will shift as they are played - but still - a fun exercise. SRS is a simple rating system that takes strength of schedule and average point differential into account. 0 is average per a given year. We were -12.92 in the asterisk year of our lord (2020). In 2018 we were 12.14.

Year/HC/Record	SRS
1959 / Schwartzwalder / 11-0	23.36
1987 / MacPherson / 11-0-1	16.47
1996 / Pasqualoni / 9-3	16.99
2022 / Babers / 6-1	16.90

Ok, and now the original reason for digging, where do we rank vs the remaining teams? (Split O and D and overall SRS):

Team	Offensive SRS, ACC Rank	Defensive SRS, ACC Rank	Overall SRS, ACC Rank	National Ranking (SRS)
Syracuse	6.17, #7	10.73, #2	16.90, #2	10th
ND	1.38, N/A	6.97, N/A	8.35, N/A	33rd
@PITT	6.37, #6	-2.48, #12	3.87, #9	58th
FSU	7.19, #4	5.11, #6	12.30, #5	23rd
@Wake	12.58, #2	3.44, #7	16.01, #3	11th
@BC	-2.37, #11	-3.19, #13	-5.56, #13	102nd

Interesting nuggets:
- Better than everyone left on the schedule? That's what these stats say
- Wake is polar opposite of us as far as O and D
- Pitt's O is way better than their D? They have a poor defense? Nard-dog u ok
- From hardest remaining games, to easiest: Wake > FSU > ND > PITT > BC

It’s crazy to think we’ll likely be favored in all but 1 remaining game.

All else being equal, Wake prolly favored by 3-4 at home, would be damn near a pick-Em at neutral site.

LOL @ Pitt D.

We need our D to go full MOB RULES on ND this Sat.
Stack the box agajnst the run, and have a CB and/or S shadow their TE 100% of the time.

Their passing game blows - let our CB’s do their thing on an island and force their QB to make plays.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We're damn good too. But you can't be any geek off the street. You gotta be handy layin' wood, if you know what I mean. Earn your keep.

Mob... mount up!

 

[upperdeck]

all winnable , all loseable..

we need the offense to score a bit more. 2 TDs isnt gonna do it.

 

[Newhouser]

I think we are very good but our margin for error is slim. I think we end at 9-3.

 

[721Comstock]

all winnable , all loseable..

we need the offense to score a bit more. 2 TDs isnt gonna do it.

I don’t think we’re gonna go against a D front with four future NFL linemen in one of the most hostile environments like that again this season.

Assuming none of our Big 4 on O are injured (Shrader, Tuck, OGII, Berg) - we’re gonna score points.

 

[upperdeck]

win the 2 home games and beat BC and then see where the other 2 fall..

 

[djorange1989]

I think the team that came out onto the field against Louisville was, in retrospect, a top 10 team. a bunch of injuries later, we are still a very good team, but now more like top 20 team. gotta stay as healthy as possible and show our remaining opponents, starting this weekend, that our rush D is better than what we saw last week. in 2018 we did turn things around, but after the Clemson lost, the next two opponents, Pitt and NC, hammered our run D after seeing what Clemson did. this D, and especially this DC, are much better than 2018 so hopefully we take care of biz this weekend and get us cooking again.

 

[texascpa]

all winnable , all loseable..

we need the offense to score a bit more. 2 TDs isnt gonna do it.

I'm sorry, but I can't stand takes like "all winnable, all loseable". It's the ultimate hedge. Do you really believe we are at risk of losing to BC? If the answer is "yes", then I guess the "all winnable, all loseable" could be applied to any team. That said, by what measure could we lose all of our remaining games? We are averaging almost 34 points/game. That's well more than 2TDs.

 

[upperdeck]

I'm sorry, but I can't stand takes like "all winnable, all loseable". It's the ultimate hedge. Do you really believe we are at risk of losing to BC? If the answer is "yes", then I guess the "all winnable, all loseable" could be applied to any team. That said, by what measure could we lose all of our remaining games? We are averaging almost 34 points/game. That's well more than 2TDs.

yup.. because bc at home in cold weather and every is banged up things happen..
BC was down 10-3 at the half vs clemson and they beat UL at home.

they could also come in after traveling to NC st and ND and be all beat up..

I dont think our B game is light years ahead of anyone.. But I do think if we play well we can win.. Flowers is good and could go off for 4 TDs.. We might have kids opting out for all we know by then as well..

I dont know why Flowers would want to keep playing as a SR with no bowl game to play in at that point and he might be a solid draft pick.. Jurko too for that matter but who knows, his stock has fallen a bit I think

 

[djorange1989]

I'm sorry, but I can't stand takes like "all winnable, all loseable". It's the ultimate hedge. Do you really believe we are at risk of losing to BC? If the answer is "yes", then I guess the "all winnable, all loseable" could be applied to any team. That said, by what measure could we lose all of our remaining games? We are averaging almost 34 points/game. That's well more than 2TDs.

in fairness, the 59 against Wagner and the 48 against U Conn have skewed things in terms of our points per game. Louisville and Purdue are the only games against non-tomato cans where we scored at least 30, and the Purdue game was actually 25 points for the offense. I totally agree that we are NOT losing to BC, they are going to be out of bowl consideration, there will be 50 people in the stands on a cold Thanksgiving Weekend and they have the look of a team that will fold the tent. I think the offense is certainly improved overall and particularly in the passing game, but I think it is legit to be a bit concerned about it. if Sean isn't healthy now and that doesn't change much for the better as he keeps playing through it, then I will definitely be concerned. OG2 is our only real threat at WR, and GS can't do everything himself. Our D is awesome, but can't have them worn down like last week. the good news is, as Comstock mentioned above, we aren't facing a defense again this year that has that kind of talent. I think they have three guys on D that are projected to be top 20 draft picks in the spring. I am sticking with my 9-3 pick for this team.

 

[djorange1989]

yup.. because bc at home in cold weather and every is banged up things happen..
BC was down 10-3 at the half vs clemson and they beat UL at home.

they could also come in after traveling to NC st and ND and be all beat up..

I dont think our B game is light years ahead of anyone.. But I do think if we play well we can win.. Flowers is good and could go off for 4 TDs.. We might have kids opting out for all we know by then as well..

I dont know why Flowers would want to keep playing as a SR with no bowl game to play in at that point and he might be a solid draft pick.. Jurko too for that matter but who knows, his stock has fallen a bit I think

we aren't losing to BC, that home game will be a joke in terms of home advantage for them, you can't tell me their fans are showing up on Thanksgiving Weekend in the cold to watch their crappy 3-8 or 4-7 team play us, there will probably be more SU fans there. BC can't run the ball, we will stack the box against that horrible OL, Jurko, if he plays, won't have a prayer. As you mention, Flowers could bail, Jurko could bail. I don't think any of our guys would opt out, we have bowl position to play for. after that? we could have a few opt outs for our bowl game, sure

don't be fooled by Clemson and Louisville games, Clemson was red bandana game, they always get up for that game, at least for a half. Louisville lost Malik during the game, and it was still only a last minute win for BC

 

[Cuseregular]

yup.. because bc at home in cold weather and every is banged up things happen..
BC was down 10-3 at the half vs clemson and they beat UL at home.

they could also come in after traveling to NC st and ND and be all beat up..

I dont think our B game is light years ahead of anyone.. But I do think if we play well we can win.. Flowers is good and could go off for 4 TDs.. We might have kids opting out for all we know by then as well..

I dont know why Flowers would want to keep playing as a SR with no bowl game to play in at that point and he might be a solid draft pick.. Jurko too for that matter but who knows, his stock has fallen a bit I think

And likely whatever bowl we’re going to will b set in stone by then, so essentially it’ll be a meaningless game. Anything can happen in that scenario

 

[qdawgg]

“Football is weird”. Umm, not really. It’s not played in a vacuum like people who didn’t play competitive sports would think. Saying it’s weird shows a complete lack of understanding of the sport.

Just like our game against Clemson. One half of a game doesn’t determine the outcome. One part of a season doesn’t determine the rest of the game results.

I think this is now the most important game of the season because is it going to be the start of a downward trend for the team? That’s the big question. Even if we play hard and play well but lose, I would say no, we aren’t trending down. What we’ve seen at times in prior years is a really good showing followed by complete meltdowns in single games or multiple games.

I think this is a different team though for two reasons. The players and the new coaching staff. I would agree that 9 wins is really where the floor should be based on how the team has played so far. Anything less is either a result of further injuries, complete fatigue by the players as a result of all the minutes some are playing or the team falling apart like we’ve seen before.

Looking at the stats and comparing them at this point in the season is a little silly this year because our schedule to end the season is far tougher. So looking at stats now is like cherry picking. Probably better to do this at least after the ND game.

 

[721Comstock]

“Football is weird”. Umm, not really. It’s not played in a vacuum like people who didn’t play competitive sports would think. Saying it’s weird shows a complete lack of understanding of the sport.

Just like our game against Clemson. One half of a game doesn’t determine the outcome. One part of a season doesn’t determine the rest of the game results.

I think this is now the most important game of the season because is it going to be the start of a downward trend for the team? That’s the big question. Even if we play hard and play well but lose, I would say no, we aren’t trending down. What we’ve seen at times in prior years is a really good showing followed by complete meltdowns in single games or multiple games.

I think this is a different team though for two reasons. The players and the new coaching staff. I would agree that 9 wins is really where the floor should be based on how the team has played so far. Anything less is either a result of further injuries, complete fatigue by the players as a result of all the minutes some are playing or the team falling apart like we’ve seen before.

Looking at the stats and comparing them at this point in the season is a little silly this year because our schedule to end the season is far tougher. So looking at stats now is like cherry picking. Probably better to do this at least after the ND game.

LOL WUT??

Every other team has played some cupcakes and soupcans too.

The stats are the stats.
And ours are now reduced by having played Clemson, at Clemson.

How many teams have played a tougher road game than that so
far this year?

Maybe Bama at Tenn, and…. ?

 

[anomander]

Not only does this team have next level talent on both sides of the ball almost as important you can tell they have that chemistry which goes a long way.

 

[qdawgg]

LOL WUT??

Every other team has played some cupcakes and soupcans too.

The stats are the stats.
And ours are now reduced by having played Clemson, at Clemson.

How many teams have played a tougher road game than that so
far this year?

Maybe Bama at Tenn, and…. ?

Not sure that was my point…..

Our stats also have Uconn and Wagner. So until we balance that out with a couple more solid opponents I think the stats are misleading to some degree.

 

[721Comstock]

Not sure that was my point…..

Our stats also have Uconn and Wagner. So until we balance that out with a couple more solid opponents I think the stats are misleading to some degree.

Notre Dame had UNLV, Marshall & Stanford to pad their stats….

Oh wait, they took L’s in two of those games. nm.

Wake has played VMI, Vandy, and Army.
I’m sure that helped their stats, given that they scored 40+ vs all 3,
and 2 of those teams only scored 10.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I don’t think anyone on here is being realistic about how good ND has been against the ACC. Postseason losses to Clemson don’t count for their regular season winning streak that is like 7 years now.

It’s a great win if we pull it out. If we don’t the rest of the season will look and feel different.

 

[qdawgg]

Notre Dame had UNLV, Marshall & Stanford to pad their stats….

Oh wait, they took L’s in two of those games. nm.

Wake has played VMI, Vandy, and Army.
I’m sure that helped their stats, given that they scored 40+ vs all 3,
and 2 of those teams only scored 10.

You’re right. Our stats right now will look identical at the end of the year if not better.