How I see the future of the SEC, B1G, ACC looking

[Alsacs]

If you want more context read Arb's post ESPN ACC-GOR for where I discussed some of this. This is all my opinion and obviously have no support or evidence for this except I think the Big XII is the conference that will get eaten alive. I think 4 team pods are in the future of the B1G, SEC, ACC I don't know when it will happen. My guesses are Texas, Oklahoma State as the 15th and 16th SEC team, Oklahoma, Kansas to the B16, and Notre Dame and one of WVU/Cincinnati/UConn to the ACC.

SEC pods
Pod 1
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma State
Missouri

Pod 2
Auburn
Alabama
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Pod 3
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky

Pod 4
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Arkansas

B1G
Pod 1
Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland
Illinois

Pod 2
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern

Pod 3
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
Iowa

Pod 4
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana

ACC
Pod 1
Syracuse
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame

Pod 2
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Cincinnati/West Virginia

Pod 3
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Wake Forest

Pod 4
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami
Clemson

Again, this allows all the conferences to protect basic history as much I could do. Please feel to make any switches I may have done wrong, but I just believe this is what we will see and it won't happen for another 12 years IMO.

 

[BORZAK]

looks possible

 

[SUinNYC]

looks possible

Makes so much sense there's no way it could happen.

What happens to Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa St. Kansas St? American I presume?

 

[chakka3421]

Big 12 will be forced to add 2 more teams especially if teams get shut out of footballs version of final four due to lack of conference championship game.

Next 10 years will be interesting - many will complain that a 4 team playoff is not enough. Expansion to 8 team playoff will stabilize conference realignment since all 5 major conference champions will get an auto bid with 3 at large bids creating more stabilization (and if 1 bid is guaranteed to 1 of the 5 second tier conference champions if they meet certain criteria).

I actually think the B12 stabilizes as long as they go to 12 teams and have a conference championship. That's my version of one likely future all due to GOR detente.

 

[Bayside44]

At some point Texas ad OU go west and the Big 12 as it matters goes away.

 

[rrlbees]

4x16

Sent using my Commodore 64

 

[TexanMark]

I think 5x16 is more likely than a neat 4x16...more than 64 good programs. Funny how the GOR changed everything for the ACC. Many ACC teams were on the outside looking in at B12 and B1G fans attempts at listing 4x16s.

 

[Doctor44]

Texas / Texas tech and ou/ osu have seemed joined at the hip throughout these potential talks. Gotta believe they stick together

 

[44PRIDE]

One major flaw in your formulations is that you don't consider the Pac12 at all. They have quite a formidable TV contract and viewing area. And Texas would most certainly prefer to move west if the B12 were to collapse.

And if we are considering the 4x16 format, then you need to consider teams like Boise St, BYU, USF

 

[rrlbees]

I think 5x16 is more likely than a neat 4x16...more than 64 good programs. Funny how the GOR changed everything for the ACC. Many ACC teams were on the outside looking in at B12 and B1G fans attempts at listing 4x16s.

So you think the B12 survives?

Sent using my Commodore 64

 

[All4SU]

That Pod1 of the B1g looks really weak.

 

[Btstimpy]

At some point Texas ad OU go west and the Big 12 as it matters goes away.

Here is a link to a talk that Deloss Dodds of Texas gave to a local chamber of commerce in Texas in early 2012. In it he explains what Texas may or may not do. The part about Conference Realignment starts at about the 19:40 minute. Bottom line from him is that as long as he's there, Texas wants to be in the Big 12. If they have to change conferences, Texas will only go East. That rules out the PAC12 for Texas.

He talks for about 30 minutes, and it tells you everything you'd ever want to know about Texas athletics. It's a good video.

 

[All4SU]

A some point, the PAC12 is going to want to make a move. If they wait too long, and the SEC grabs Texas, and OK or OKST, and the B1g takes Oklahoma and/Kansas, the PAC is going to be on the outside looking in. They don't wants to add Boise or BYU. So the question is: who blinks first? I think the PAC12 does. The second question is, does the PAC have enough clout to grab a Texas or OK? I suspect that deep down, the PAC does not really want to go to 16. But geography alone limits their options somewhat. They will want to make their move as a preemptive strike to keep from getting closed out.

 

[Alsacs]

Makes so much sense there's no way it could happen.

What happens to Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa St. Kansas St? American I presume?

I mentioned in the other post that 6 leftover Big XII teams would form a new league with UConn/Cincinnati, Temple, USF, UCF, and 2 others. The 16th ACC team would likely come from 1 of West Virginia, Cincinnati, UConn.

 

[mountaincuse]

So, what you're saying is Oklahoma to big10 is imminent?

 

[TexanMark]

I agree Texas would rather look east than west...The B12 survives as long at UT and OU say so. If they leave in 10 years then as others said the B12 would become the new Big East. Still viable but barely. Too many variables to predict a nice little 4x16. Plus I think it would turn many fans off on college sports.

 

[anomander]

I can't see how Texas ends up in the SEC if Texas AM has anything to say about it. It has to be Pac whatever or ACC. Texas to ACC with ND would be a nice walk off home run.

 

[Alsacs]

A some point, the PAC12 is going to want to make a move. If they wait too long, and the SEC grabs Texas, and OK or OKST, and the B1g takes Oklahoma and/Kansas, the PAC is going to be on the outside looking in. They don't wants to add Boise or BYU. So the question is: who blinks first? I think the PAC12 does. The second question is, does the PAC have enough clout to grab a Texas or OK? I suspect that deep down, the PAC does not really want to go to 16. But geography alone limits their options somewhat. They will want to make their move as a preemptive strike to keep from getting close out.

Pac-12 can't make a move because as much as Texas/Oklahoma make sense they are completely half a country away. As much as the Big East didn't make sense geographically it wasn't exactly Syracuse to Texas, Chicago and Milwaukee are a just a 2 hr flight away and basketball isn't football. The Pac-12 would love Texas and would take Oklahoma/Oklahoma State to get Texas, but the Pac-12 turned down Oklahoma/Oklahoma State in 2010 when the Big XII almost blew up. The Pac-12 can't take Texas because of the Longhorn Network. Pac-12 network is backed by FOX, and the Longhorn network is backed by ESPN. Texas isn't going to go from ESPN to FOX because ESPN won't let them and they signed a 20 yr contract with ESPN. The reason the Big XII is going to die is because they won't create the revenue from a network to keep up the PAC-12/B1G/SEC/ACC. The WVU nutjob idiots keep bringing up 3rd tier rights, but when the ACC buys those back from ESPN and has Raycom/ESPN as partners for the ACC network it will blow out the non-Texas Big XII schools. The SEC network is backed by ESPN, and the fact that Texas A&M is blowing up in the SEC and expanding Kyle Field to 102k it will get Texas's attention. The SEC will add 2 more teams, and reuniting Texas-Texas A&M makes a lot of sense. Adding Oklahoma would be ideal for the SEC, but the B1G probably interests them more. As long as Oklahoma State gets taken care I think Oklahoma would go to the B1G with Kansas. Texas no longer has to worry about Texas Tech because Texas A&M already left them, and Texas would have to do what is in its best interest.

The Pac-12 isn't going to get the crown jewels of the Big XII when the SEC/B1G are closer and will offer better deals. Pac-12 will probably remain at 12 for a while unless they go for BYU, Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV type programs from the MWC.

 

[Btstimpy]

The Pac-12 isn't going to get the crown jewels of the Big XII when the SEC/B1G are closer and will offer better deals. Pac-12 will probably remain at 12 for a while unless they go for BYU, Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV type programs from the MWC.

The PAC12 apparently had Oklahoma and Oklahoma State convinced to come, but Texas wasn't convinced and killed the deal. The PAC12 didn't want Oklahoma without Texas. Since Texas won't go, the PAC12 will have to look toward the Mountain West Conference for its additions to become larger. I still think that they should pick up both Nevada schools and lock down Nevada. I know they don't like more than 1 per state, but Reno and Las Vegas are worlds apart and you lock down the state. UNLV is building a new stadium, and the PAC12 just had its Men's Basketball tournament in Las Vegas this season.

After those 2, I'm not sure who they would go with. They could further solidify Utah and Colorado. They could go into New Mexico, Idaho, or Hawaii. But I'd start with the 2 Nevada schools and go to 14 like the rest of us.

 

[Alsacs]

The PAC12 apparently had Oklahoma and Oklahoma State convinced to come, but Texas wasn't convinced and killed the deal. The PAC12 didn't want Oklahoma without Texas. Since Texas won't go, the PAC12 will have to look toward the Mountain West Conference for its additions to become larger. I still think that they should pick up both Nevada schools and lock down Nevada. I know they don't like more than 1 per state, but Reno and Las Vegas are worlds apart and you lock down the state. UNLV is building a new stadium, and the PAC12 just had its Men's Basketball tournament in Las Vegas this season.

After those 2, I'm not sure who they would go with. They could further solidify Utah and Colorado. They could go into New Mexico, Idaho, or Hawaii. But I'd start with the 2 Nevada schools and go to 14 like the rest of us.

Pac-12 could go New Mexico(new media markets and good basketball and if Bob Davie turns around their football), BYU, UNLV, and Boise State. That gets the Pac-12 network into NM, NV, ID, and BYU has a national following due the religious affiliation.

I agree about Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, they were ready to go out west without Texas, but they were rejected because Texas was the jewel that Larry Scott wanted. If I was the Pac-12 I would have taken Oklahoma/Oklahoma St gone after Kansas and a 16th school and struck while the iron was hot. Texas was never going to get leveraged into any conference unless they got to keep the Longhorn Network and no conference with aspirations of a conference network would allow 1 school to have its own side network.

Edit: Here is the article about OU/OSU getting stupidly rejected by the Pac-12 http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...homa-oklahoma-state-surprised-by-pac-12-snub/

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Asking the PAC12 to invite UNLV and Reno would be like asking the Ivy League to invite Rutgers.

 

[Btstimpy]

Asking the PAC12 to invite UNLV and Reno would be like asking the Ivy League to invite Rutgers.

The 4 California schools and the University of Washington can claim good academics. Outside of that, the PAC12 already has 9 other schools not in the top 100. The Nevada schools are not barn burners academically. True. But neither are Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, Oregon State, etc.

 

[Btstimpy]

Pac-12 could go New Mexico(new media markets and good basketball and if Bob Davie turns around their football), BYU, UNLV, and Boise State. That gets the Pac-12 network into NM, NV, ID, and BYU has a national following due the religious affiliation.

They could certainly decide to do this, but I'm a symmetry guy. They PAC 12 has always done things in pairs. They have the pair in Southern California (USC/UCLA), the pair in Northern California (Stanford, Cal), Oregon (Oregon, OSU), Washington (UW, WSU), Arizona (UA, ASU). Now they have Utah and Colorado. They should pair them off with Utah State/Colorado State. And then they should add Nevada/UNLV. Nice symmetry. I'm being silly.

Yes in the interest of picking up representation in these other states for their TV network, yes they could venture into NM, ID, and also look at BYU.

 

[Alsacs]

Asking the PAC12 to invite UNLV and Reno would be like asking the Ivy League to invite Rutgers.

By that logic the Pac-12 won't add Oklahoma State and to get Oklahoma/Texas they will need to take Oklahoma State and a 4th team which unless its Kansas won't be academically top 100. I don't think the Pac-12 will take both Nevada and UNLV, but 1 of them isn't out of the question. It gets the Pac-12 network into a new state Nevada(and NV is a growing state as during the last census they gained an EV), and creates new revenue for the entire conference. If UNLV football improved they would have a chance IMO as their basketball was ranked in the top 10 by ESPN when they did their all-time rankings a couple years ago. Boise State needs to improve its academics greatly to get invited, by New Mexico and BYU would pass the academic tests, and if BYU would get off there high-horse about Sunday I think they would bring a 60k seat stadium and would bring value along with New Mexico to the Pac-12 and its network.

 

[Resonator]

I can't see how Texas ends up in the SEC if Texas AM has anything to say about it. It has to be Pac whatever or ACC. Texas to ACC with ND would be a nice walk off home run.

Because even with Texas A&M already in the SEC, adding Texas will still generate eyeballs for the SECN, and, bring HUGE extra dollars to the SEC contract with ESPN.

Only they and Notre Dame would bring that kind of value to a conference, IMHO.