SWC75
Bored Historian
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It was my perception yesterday that Alec Lemon was having an extremely bad game vs. Rutgers, with a lot of key drops, (including on the last “Stanford Band” play). I said at the time that I wished they kept track of who incompletion were thrown to so we could look at some kind of percentage of passes caught.
It runs out ESPN’s play-by-play makes an attempt to do this. Some of their annotations simply say “incomplete pass”, (one said “team incompletion”, whatever that is). Presumably in those cases the passer was throwing the ball away or at least so inaccurately that the intended receiver could not be identified, (the pass could also have been batted down).
Of course, just because a receiver was identified, it doesn’t mean the pass was good or even attachable. It may have gone over his head or out of bounds. You’d have to look at film of the passes to determine whose fault it was that the pass was incomplete. But in baseball you have hits and outs and you’d have to look at film of each pitch and swing to determine whether it was a great pitch or a bad swing. They still keep the overall numbers. So I decided to go through the play-by-plays and identify the incomplete passes intended for each receiver, (when identified) and compare them to the actual catches to see what, if anything the numbers might tell us.
I found, for example that Alec Lemon, while making 3 catches yesterday was the target for 6 incomplete passes, (5 in the second half), and he also dropped that lateral from Jerome Smith, (which was recorded as a fumble by Smith). So he did have a bad day, although the 3 catches produced 50 yards. That suggest that the 6 incompletions might have produced another 100 yards of offense. That might have made a big difference in the game, (one of them was in the end zone, as I recall).
Here are the season totals for each player who has caught a pass for SU this season, (everyone noted as the target for an incomplete pass as also caught at least one pass).
Marcus Sales has 37 catches and 14 incompletions. He’s caught 72.5% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 14.7 yards on the balls he has caught so his 14 incompletions cost us approximately 206 yards.
Jarrod West has 26 catches and 13 incompletions. He’s caught 66.7% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 14.4 yards on the balls he has caught so his 13 incompletions cost us approximately 187 yards.
Alec Lemon has 24 catches and 12 incompletions. He’s caught 66.7% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 10.9 yards on the balls he has caught so his 14 incompletions cost us approximately 131 yards. (Alec had caught 21 of 27 passes before yesterday: 77.8%- he had half of his incompletion on the season yesterday).
Prince-Tyson Gulley has 21 catches and 5 incompletions. He’s caught 80.8% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 7.7 yards on the balls he has caught so his 5 incompletions cost us approximately 39 yards. (His catches have all been dump-off passes or screens so obviously he’s going to have a high completion percentage and a low average gain per pass).
Beckett Wales has 16 catches and 5 incompletions. He’s caught 76.2% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 8.6 yards on the balls he has caught so his 5 incompletions cost us approximately 43 yards. (His passes have been somewhat longer than Gulley’s and better defended so his completion percentage is impressive.
Jeremiah Kobena has 5 catches and 4 incompletions. He’s caught 55.6% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 20.2 yards on the balls he has caught so his 13 incompletions cost us approximately 81 yards. (He’s a speedster so his passes have been long balls, thus the lower completion percentage. He only played in the first two games due to injury.
Christopher Clark has 8 catches and 6 incompletions. He’s caught 57.1% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 12.1 yards on the balls he has caught so his 6 incompletions cost us approximately 73 yards. (He’s also a speedster but also catches shorter passes. We may see less of him when Kobena returns).
Jerome Smith has 7 catches and 1 incompletion. He’s caught 88.8% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 11.4 yards on the balls he has caught so his 1 incompletion cost us approximately 11 yards. (Interesting that he’s averaging 11.4 per completion and Gulley only 7.7, even with that 63 yard screen pass vs. Stony Brook.)
Ashton Broyld has 7 catches and 1 incompletion. He’s caught 88.8% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 7.6 yards on the balls he has caught so his 1 incompletion cost us approximately 8 yards. (Not the numbers of a game-breaking playmaker.)
David Stevens has caught all 6 passes thrown to him this year for 65 yards, 10.8 per catch.
Carl Cutler has caught all 5 passes thrown to him this year for 32 yards, 6.4 per catch. (Our tight ends have caught 27 of 32 passes thrown to them this year: 84.3% But they‘ve only averaged 8.7 yards per catch: Nick Provo averaged 10.5 last year).
Comments: Sales has been thrown to more than we realize. And he should be. He’s clearly our best guy. He’s caught a higher percentage of balls than lemon, our “possession” receiver and he’s much more likely to break it for a big gain. West can get some good gains, too but isn’t a reliable catching the ball. The tight ends are great targets, even if they aren’t going to be the source of “explosive” plays. If we are going to dink and dunk, let’s do it with them. Hopefully we can get Kobena back soon. He’s no Randy Moss but he gives us an extra dimension. Clark's numbers aren’t great but I'd like to see more of him.
It runs out ESPN’s play-by-play makes an attempt to do this. Some of their annotations simply say “incomplete pass”, (one said “team incompletion”, whatever that is). Presumably in those cases the passer was throwing the ball away or at least so inaccurately that the intended receiver could not be identified, (the pass could also have been batted down).
Of course, just because a receiver was identified, it doesn’t mean the pass was good or even attachable. It may have gone over his head or out of bounds. You’d have to look at film of the passes to determine whose fault it was that the pass was incomplete. But in baseball you have hits and outs and you’d have to look at film of each pitch and swing to determine whether it was a great pitch or a bad swing. They still keep the overall numbers. So I decided to go through the play-by-plays and identify the incomplete passes intended for each receiver, (when identified) and compare them to the actual catches to see what, if anything the numbers might tell us.
I found, for example that Alec Lemon, while making 3 catches yesterday was the target for 6 incomplete passes, (5 in the second half), and he also dropped that lateral from Jerome Smith, (which was recorded as a fumble by Smith). So he did have a bad day, although the 3 catches produced 50 yards. That suggest that the 6 incompletions might have produced another 100 yards of offense. That might have made a big difference in the game, (one of them was in the end zone, as I recall).
Here are the season totals for each player who has caught a pass for SU this season, (everyone noted as the target for an incomplete pass as also caught at least one pass).
Marcus Sales has 37 catches and 14 incompletions. He’s caught 72.5% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 14.7 yards on the balls he has caught so his 14 incompletions cost us approximately 206 yards.
Jarrod West has 26 catches and 13 incompletions. He’s caught 66.7% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 14.4 yards on the balls he has caught so his 13 incompletions cost us approximately 187 yards.
Alec Lemon has 24 catches and 12 incompletions. He’s caught 66.7% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 10.9 yards on the balls he has caught so his 14 incompletions cost us approximately 131 yards. (Alec had caught 21 of 27 passes before yesterday: 77.8%- he had half of his incompletion on the season yesterday).
Prince-Tyson Gulley has 21 catches and 5 incompletions. He’s caught 80.8% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 7.7 yards on the balls he has caught so his 5 incompletions cost us approximately 39 yards. (His catches have all been dump-off passes or screens so obviously he’s going to have a high completion percentage and a low average gain per pass).
Beckett Wales has 16 catches and 5 incompletions. He’s caught 76.2% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 8.6 yards on the balls he has caught so his 5 incompletions cost us approximately 43 yards. (His passes have been somewhat longer than Gulley’s and better defended so his completion percentage is impressive.
Jeremiah Kobena has 5 catches and 4 incompletions. He’s caught 55.6% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 20.2 yards on the balls he has caught so his 13 incompletions cost us approximately 81 yards. (He’s a speedster so his passes have been long balls, thus the lower completion percentage. He only played in the first two games due to injury.
Christopher Clark has 8 catches and 6 incompletions. He’s caught 57.1% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 12.1 yards on the balls he has caught so his 6 incompletions cost us approximately 73 yards. (He’s also a speedster but also catches shorter passes. We may see less of him when Kobena returns).
Jerome Smith has 7 catches and 1 incompletion. He’s caught 88.8% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 11.4 yards on the balls he has caught so his 1 incompletion cost us approximately 11 yards. (Interesting that he’s averaging 11.4 per completion and Gulley only 7.7, even with that 63 yard screen pass vs. Stony Brook.)
Ashton Broyld has 7 catches and 1 incompletion. He’s caught 88.8% of the passes thrown to him. He’s averaged 7.6 yards on the balls he has caught so his 1 incompletion cost us approximately 8 yards. (Not the numbers of a game-breaking playmaker.)
David Stevens has caught all 6 passes thrown to him this year for 65 yards, 10.8 per catch.
Carl Cutler has caught all 5 passes thrown to him this year for 32 yards, 6.4 per catch. (Our tight ends have caught 27 of 32 passes thrown to them this year: 84.3% But they‘ve only averaged 8.7 yards per catch: Nick Provo averaged 10.5 last year).
Comments: Sales has been thrown to more than we realize. And he should be. He’s clearly our best guy. He’s caught a higher percentage of balls than lemon, our “possession” receiver and he’s much more likely to break it for a big gain. West can get some good gains, too but isn’t a reliable catching the ball. The tight ends are great targets, even if they aren’t going to be the source of “explosive” plays. If we are going to dink and dunk, let’s do it with them. Hopefully we can get Kobena back soon. He’s no Randy Moss but he gives us an extra dimension. Clark's numbers aren’t great but I'd like to see more of him.
