Crusty
Living Legend
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- May 21, 2012
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...it's about the Jimmy's and the Joe's. We have all heard that numerous times - and it is true. The data regarding the projection attributes of recruit ratings over the years is pretty solid. Colleges spend gigantic amounts on facilities for a reason - they have to in order to attract 18 and 19 year old kids with dreams of glory or even an NFL career.
Certainly, other things matter but injuries, scheme, strenght of schedule and coaching are all factors, but the single most important factor is recruiting. Injuries happen to all teams, SOS many times turns out to be different than originally thought as games are scheduled years in advance and today's hero coach is tomorrow's goat.
Are there exceptions that prove the rule? Of course, but please don't rely on anectdotal eveidence in the face of strong data. Betting against the law of large numbers is like dodging lightning bolts for a living.
In our case the numbers have been pretty acurate as predictors of future team results. We have to stop deluding ourselves with rationalization about the low ratings of our classes, which consitently rank at the bottom of the ACC.
I took alook at the numerical grades by ESPN of all classes since 2009, which encompases Marrone, Shafer and Babers (288 players). This sems like a reasoanble subset of data for the topic.
Babers clases average 75.16
Marrone 74.67
Shafer 74.08
Not a significant difference between all three over 12 recruiting classes.
Until this changes, we are going to be mired in mediaocrity at best.
Certainly, other things matter but injuries, scheme, strenght of schedule and coaching are all factors, but the single most important factor is recruiting. Injuries happen to all teams, SOS many times turns out to be different than originally thought as games are scheduled years in advance and today's hero coach is tomorrow's goat.
Are there exceptions that prove the rule? Of course, but please don't rely on anectdotal eveidence in the face of strong data. Betting against the law of large numbers is like dodging lightning bolts for a living.
In our case the numbers have been pretty acurate as predictors of future team results. We have to stop deluding ourselves with rationalization about the low ratings of our classes, which consitently rank at the bottom of the ACC.
I took alook at the numerical grades by ESPN of all classes since 2009, which encompases Marrone, Shafer and Babers (288 players). This sems like a reasoanble subset of data for the topic.
Babers clases average 75.16
Marrone 74.67
Shafer 74.08
Not a significant difference between all three over 12 recruiting classes.
Until this changes, we are going to be mired in mediaocrity at best.