KenPom preseason rankings are out | Syracusefan.com

KenPom preseason rankings are out

Don't buy those Great Eight tickets quite yet.

How did Ken Pom’s 2017-18 Pre-season ranking of Top Ten do versus the Final Coaches Poll?

He got 4 of the ten very close including getting the #1 team exactly right

Three teams he missed by between 10 and 20 places.

Three of the teams he ranked in the Top 10 didn’t even finish in the Top 25

10. West Virginia (Post Season #13) – Minus 3

9. North Carolina (Post Season #14) – Minus 4

8. Louisville (Post Season Not Ranked in Top 25) – Whiffed Completely

7. Florida (Post Season Not Ranked in Top 25) – Whiffed Completely

6. Virginia (Post Season #5) – Plus 1

5. Wichita State (Post Season #25)- Minus 20

4. Gonzaga (Post Season #10) – Minus 10

3. Kentucky (post Season #17) – Minus 14

2. Arizona (Post Season Not Ranked in Top 25) – Whiffed Completely

1. Villanova (Post season #1) – Dead on Correct
 
Nice to be well thought of. If we are ranked 8th at start of ACC play then I will be excited.
 
Seems high to me. I thought Kenpom was supposed to be objective based on results.
He added some data to his computation--percentage of scoring/rebounding returning, quality of incoming players--and came up with a pre-season ranking.
 
Nevada #6? Meh.
Take a look at their roster. They have unbelievable experience, the Martin twins are back, they got a top 10 recruit, and they made the Sweet 16 last season. This paragraph from NBC sports is eye-opening:

They have nine players on their roster that have spent at least three seasons playing college basketball, and the only one of those nine that did not average more than 13.2 points the last year they played is Lindsey Drew; he averaged “only” 8.3 points, 4.7 assists and 4.4 boards as Nevada’s starting point guard last season before rupturing his achilles.

That's 8 players with 3 years experience who averaged 13+ points. I doubt that has ever been seen before.

Now, can Musselman blend that all together?
 
how does kenpom calculate preseason rankings?

isnt his rankings primarly points per possession? For teams like syracuse and nevada with so much experience, i guess you can look at previous games but how in the hell do you rank Duke with nearly no college basketball points scored #2?
 
never pass up an opportunity to piss in the cornflakes!
I thought that maybe, just maybe, I could gently point out the fundamental flakiness of these pre-season wild-ass guesses so that people wouldn't spiral upwards into higher levels of euphoria based on them.

Most blew right by the data and moved to comparing conferences on the basis of this nonsense. Others complained about my raining on the parade.
 
I thought that maybe, just maybe, I could gently point out the fundamental flakiness of these pre-season wild-ass guesses so that people wouldn't spiral upwards into higher levels of euphoria based on them.

Most blew right by the data and moved to comparing conferences on the basis of this nonsense. Others complained about my raining on the parade.


Polls with data are a lot better than polls by humans and the KenPom ratings are a picture in time that directly correlate with Vegas lines.
 
Polls with data are a lot better than polls by humans and the KenPom ratings are a picture in time that directly correlate with Vegas lines.

See 2017-18 results above.

Mostly garbage is better than complete garbage is your point, I guess.
 
See 2017-18 results above.

Mostly garbage is better than complete garbage is your point, I guess.

Well if you expect to hit exact on every point with 350 plus data points I don’t know what to tell you. I see the results and see pretty good data if he’s only missing by 5-10 spots.
 

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