Kentucky the last 2 years are why preseason polls are ridiculous | Syracusefan.com

Kentucky the last 2 years are why preseason polls are ridiculous

Alsacs

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2012-2013 Kentucky was preseason #2
2013-2014 Kentucky was preseason #1

I watched that team lose to a bubble at best Arkansas team at Rupp Arena last night. It amazed me Arkansas got the lucky break in OT that it did when it appeared the ball went of at Arky player and should have gone to Kentucky, but the refs didn't review it and Arkansas won. However, watching this Kentucky team with so much talent no really gel over the course of these past 2 seasons just shows me Pay Cal had the ultimate blend in 2012 when he had by far the best NBA prospect of the last 4 years in#1 pick Anthony Davis, #2 pick from that draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SENIOR Darius Miller, sophomores Terrance Jones and Doron Lamb. Along with rotation freshman Jeff Teague and Kyle Wiltjer and bench big guy for depth Eloy Vargas.

That team was lighting in a bottle freshman aren't going to be Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist each year and you need roll players instead of expecting freshman to dominate.
That team with Julius Randle, James Young, Willy Cauley-Stein as your core should NEVER lose at home in coRUPPt Arena to Arkansas. They have so much talent on that team and Calipari has struggled these past 2 years. I heard Calipari say after the game the SEC should get 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. I couldn't stop laughing when I couldn't name 1 worthy team beyond Florida and Kentucky. One of their bubble teams Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri may make 3 SEC teams total, but they won't get beyond 3 and that is assuming one of those 3 makes it.
 

SoBeCuse

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Actually, make that any rankings/polls prior prior to March. I loathe those "What Will We Ranked Monday" posts. Irrelevant.
 

Cusefan0307

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Kentucky's frontline is arguably the most talented in the country, but the Harrison twins are an example why i don't put a lot of salt into Recruiting Rankings. Just because you are an athlete doesn't mean you can play basketball. Too many people, experts included worship what S C O U T, Rivals, and espn have to say.
 

BuffOrange

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How ridiculous are they really? UK is anecdotal.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-often-disappoint/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0


Although we all like to make fun of sportswriters, these predictions are actually pretty decent. Since 2003, the team ranked higher in the A.P. preseason poll (excluding cases where neither team received at least 5 votes) has won 72 percent of tournament games. That’s exactly the same number, 72 percent, as the fraction of games won by the better seed. And it’s a little better than the 71 percent won by teams with the superior Ratings Percentage Index, the statistical formula that the seeding committee prefers. (More sophisticated statistical ratings, like Ken Pomeroy’s, do only a little better, with a 73 percent success rate.)

What’s going on here? It’s almost certainly a case of reversion to the mean.
 

RenoHeel

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Recruiting rankings need to be taken with a large bag of salt. There are no accurate measuring sticks as to how kids will blend into a totally new environment. They can measure individual skills, yes. But as long as it's a team sport, playing well with others is a major factor that gets overlooked.
 

soyorange

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Kentucky's frontline is arguably the most talented in the country, but the Harrison twins are an example why i don't put a lot of salt into Recruiting Rankings. Just because you are an athlete doesn't mean you can play basketball. Too many people, experts included worship what S C O U T, Rivals, and espn have to say.

It's not the rankings' fault, it's simply the fact they're all a bunch of freshman. Are the Harrison twins good players? Or course they are. But you cannot rely on freshmen year in and year out to take you to the promised land, regardless of how talented they are. If Syracuse's recruiting classes from the last 2 years were the only players getting a majority of the minutes, we wouldn't be a very good team.

Syracuse is enjoying it's recent success because it hasn't had to depend on one and done's but has recruited a healthy mix of top flight talent who stick around a few years.
 

jncuse

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Pre-season rankings are way off... but I would not call them ridiculous in that they serve a need for fans. People will want to see where there team is ranked - if AP drops them until January, another vote or rankiing will be developed by somebody.

Perhaps the people that vote for the pre-season AP need to re-evaluate how they come up with their assessments. With the struggles of KU and UK in November, perhaps voters will show less favour to freshman laden teams -- make those teams earn a top 10 ranking.
 
T

tee1222

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It's simple to me. Can't teach heart, will, determination. Prima donnas, bopsy twins, Young always look "entitled" to me. I like Cauley-Stein, he's a gamer. Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist never stopped pushing it on either end. This crop aside from Randle and Cauley-Cougar-Mellencamp-Stein, not so much.
 

Noexcuse

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LSU had them on the ropes the other night too. During that game, one of the announcers (Jimmy Dykes I think) was sort of down playing Florida's win against them by marveling how Kentucky is doing so well while relying on freshman and not having an upperclassmen dominated team like Florida.
 

Cusefan0307

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It's not the rankings' fault, it's simply the fact they're all a bunch of freshman. Are the Harrison twins good players? Or course they are. But you cannot rely on freshmen year in and year out to take you to the promised land, regardless of how talented they are. If Syracuse's recruiting classes from the last 2 years were the only players getting a majority of the minutes, we wouldn't be a very good team.

Syracuse is enjoying it's recent success because it hasn't had to depend on one and done's but has recruited a healthy mix of top flight talent who stick around a few years.


Agree and disagree. This class was super HYPED. I am not saying they aren't good and yes you are right they need veterans. Veterans win. But this class was compared to the fab five. They aren't really even close. If 4 out of 5 play in the NBA than maybe I can see a point. I bet if they had Tyler Ennis on their team they would have a better record than they would with the Harrison twins at PG.
 

MikeSU02

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2012-2013 Kentucky was preseason #2
2013-2014 Kentucky was preseason #1

I watched that team lose to a bubble at best Arkansas team at Rupp Arena last night. It amazed me Arkansas got the lucky break in OT that it did when it appeared the ball went of at Arky player and should have gone to Kentucky, but the refs didn't review it and Arkansas won. However, watching this Kentucky team with so much talent no really gel over the course of these past 2 seasons just shows me Pay Cal had the ultimate blend in 2012 when he had by far the best NBA prospect of the last 4 years in#1 pick Anthony Davis, #2 pick from that draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SENIOR Darius Miller, sophomores Terrance Jones and Doron Lamb. Along with rotation freshman Jeff Teague and Kyle Wiltjer and bench big guy for depth Eloy Vargas.

That team was lighting in a bottle freshman aren't going to be Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist each year and you need roll players instead of expecting freshman to dominate.
That team with Julius Randle, James Young, Willy Cauley-Stein as your core should NEVER lose at home in coRUPPt Arena to Arkansas. They have so much talent on that team and Calipari has struggled these past 2 years. I heard Calipari say after the game the SEC should get 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. I couldn't stop laughing when I couldn't name 1 worthy team beyond Florida and Kentucky. One of their bubble teams Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri may make 3 SEC teams total, but they won't get beyond 3 and that is assuming one of those 3 makes it.

Besides having Ant Davis the year they won, the real reason why Cal was finally able to close on a title is the NBA lockout. That kept some kids in the program that otherwise would have left. That team played very few players, but had nice balance and solid veterans. Without that lockout, I would bet that UK would not have won.

With that said, I put Ant Davis up there with Melo and KD as relatively recent, but truly dominant college players.
 

sufandu

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How many more years will an overhyped UK team have to fall on it's face before they'll stop being preseason top 5 based solely on incoming freshman?
 

Cusefan0307

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How many more years will an overhyped UK team have to fall on it's face before they'll stop being preseason top 5 based solely on incoming freshman?

Well I think next year they will start to have some problems. All of those guys aren't ready for the association, so either someone is going to transfer, or they are going to have a lot of upset kids on the bench.
 

MikeSU02

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Agree and disagree. This class was super HYPED. I am not saying they aren't good and yes you are right they need veterans. Veterans win. But this class was compared to the fab five. They aren't really even close. If 4 out of 5 play in the NBA than maybe I can see a point. I bet if they had Tyler Ennis on their team they would have a better record than they would with the Harrison twins at PG.

People have to remember the outrageous claims that were made regarding this class by the prognosticators. Legitimate basketball journalists were calling this the greatest class ever (which is asinine off the bat).

And the other thing with recruiting classes - you can have one Lew Alcindor and a bunch of guys from the YMCA and that class is going to be the best no matter what.

One final thing I'll add - Cal does them no favors by being the hype machine. For a team to go 40-0 will take a lot of luck and landing a LeBron-esque talent.
 

soyorange

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Agree and disagree. This class was super HYPED. I am not saying they aren't good and yes you are right they need veterans. Veterans win. But this class was compared to the fab five. They aren't really even close. If 4 out of 5 play in the NBA than maybe I can see a point. I bet if they had Tyler Ennis on their team they would have a better record than they would with the Harrison twins at PG.

I agree that Tyler is the better pg than the Harrison twins and if he was on UK right now, they probably do have a better record, but he too was a very highly ranked/recruited prep athlete. It's also to his benefit that every player in the rotation is in at least their second yr in the program and Rakeem, Baye, CJ, and Cooney are all in their third or fourth years. I'm just saying, for the most part the recruiting rankings get it right, but yes the hype involved is just a ridiculous means to gain added viewers.
 

Briancuse

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If you look at the preseason top ten, they pretty much got it right, most of the teams are still there, Oklahoma st had a lot go down this year. I thought uk being number one was absurd, no way should a team that went to the nit last year be one, regardless of how good their incoming class was.
 

longtimefan

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I agree that Tyler is the better pg than the Harrison twins and if he was on UK right now, they probably do have a better record, but he too was a very highly ranked/recruited prep athlete. It's also to his benefit that every player in the rotation is in at least their second yr in the program and Rakeem, Baye, CJ, and Cooney are all in their third or fourth years. I'm just saying, for the most part the recruiting rankings get it right, but yes the hype involved is just a ridiculous means to gain added viewers.
But he *was* snubbed for the Mcdonald's game.
 

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