jncuse
I brought the Cocaine to the White House
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- Feb 19, 2012
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This is always something that interests me, even if means very little. Will Syracuse be the last undefeated this year? Many high profile programs already down. For UK fans, with their 40-0 claims - suck it.
Using RPI forecast, I am ranking teams by there likelihood to win their next 5 games, and also noting their next game where they have less than a 50% chance of winning.
As of December 6, there are 17 undefeated teams.
Chances of being undefeated after Dec 31 / next game 50% or below chance of winning)
Wisconsin 68% (Jan 14 at Indiana - 48%)
Pitt 49% (Jan 18 at Syracuse - 38%)
Ohio St 44% (Jan 7 at Michigan St - 49%)
Iowa St 44% (Jan 29 at Kansas - 39%)
Arizona 40% (Dec 14 at Michigan -50%)
Syracuse 38% (Feb 12 at Pitt - 38%)
UConn 37% (Jan 4 at SMU - 49%)
Wichita St 31% (Favoured in every game this season)
Villanova 16% (Dec 28 at Syracuse - 40%)
UCLA 16% (Dec 7 at Missouri - 50%)
St. Mary's 16% (Jan 2 at Gonzaga - 24%)
Oregon 13% (Dec 8 at Ole Miss - 48%)
UMass 11% (Mar 1 at Dayton - 50%)
Missouri 11% (Dec 7 vs UCLA - 50%
Cincy 6% (Dec 7 at New Mexico - 40%)
|Boise St 3% (Dec 10 at Kentucky - 12%)
Toledo 2% (Dec 30 at Kansas - 10%)
Add up all the odds and there should be 4 or 5 undefeated by December 31. Sag and KP rating seems to really like Pitt so far this season. But only decent team they have faced is Stanford who they beat by 21 on a neutral floor. They have doing better against cupcakes then other schools, which is dangerous data to be use for predictions.
In terms of team with a chance of being undefeated entering the conference tourney's, right now only Wichita St at 1.43% and Arizona at 0.36% have a chance over 0.10%.
Using RPI forecast, I am ranking teams by there likelihood to win their next 5 games, and also noting their next game where they have less than a 50% chance of winning.
As of December 6, there are 17 undefeated teams.
Chances of being undefeated after Dec 31 / next game 50% or below chance of winning)
Wisconsin 68% (Jan 14 at Indiana - 48%)
Pitt 49% (Jan 18 at Syracuse - 38%)
Ohio St 44% (Jan 7 at Michigan St - 49%)
Iowa St 44% (Jan 29 at Kansas - 39%)
Arizona 40% (Dec 14 at Michigan -50%)
Syracuse 38% (Feb 12 at Pitt - 38%)
UConn 37% (Jan 4 at SMU - 49%)
Wichita St 31% (Favoured in every game this season)
Villanova 16% (Dec 28 at Syracuse - 40%)
UCLA 16% (Dec 7 at Missouri - 50%)
St. Mary's 16% (Jan 2 at Gonzaga - 24%)
Oregon 13% (Dec 8 at Ole Miss - 48%)
UMass 11% (Mar 1 at Dayton - 50%)
Missouri 11% (Dec 7 vs UCLA - 50%
Cincy 6% (Dec 7 at New Mexico - 40%)
|Boise St 3% (Dec 10 at Kentucky - 12%)
Toledo 2% (Dec 30 at Kansas - 10%)
Add up all the odds and there should be 4 or 5 undefeated by December 31. Sag and KP rating seems to really like Pitt so far this season. But only decent team they have faced is Stanford who they beat by 21 on a neutral floor. They have doing better against cupcakes then other schools, which is dangerous data to be use for predictions.
In terms of team with a chance of being undefeated entering the conference tourney's, right now only Wichita St at 1.43% and Arizona at 0.36% have a chance over 0.10%.
