LaxMag Bracketology (5/5/19)

[OrangeXtreme]

Bracketology: Last Team In, Last Two Seeds Will Dominate Discussion

Maryland grabs the last spot over Cornell in Patrick Stevens' final projection.

www.uslaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Notre Dame vs. Johns Hopkins

East Hartford, Conn.
(5) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Army

Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) COLONIAL/Towson vs. Maryland

East Hartford, Conn.
(7) Loyola vs. Syracuse
(2) Virginia vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris

The guess here is Notre Dame snags the No. 8 seed, but there’s a case to be made for Syracuse as well. Expect both ACC teams to have competitive first-round games, quite possibly against Baltimore-area schools. …

Last three in: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First three out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State

Moving in: Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, UMBC
Moving out: Denver, High Point, Hobart, Vermont

Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)

 

[OrangeXtreme]

1. Who is the last team in the field?

The discussion in the committee room probably centered heavily on Maryland and Cornell, with Denver and Ohio State also possessing cases. Cornell has an extra high-end victory, while Maryland’s overall profile is broader.

Here’s a relatively obscure data point that might get mentioned tonight: average RPI win. The average of RPI of the 11 teams Maryland defeated this season was 27 entering the weekend. For the 10 teams Cornell upended, it was 35.

As a comparison, the rest of the likely at-large field had average RPI wins of 20 (Syracuse), 22 (Notre Dame), 23 (Duke and Johns Hopkins), 27 (Virginia) and 28 (Loyola), plus either 31 (Yale) or 32 (Penn). That’s a differentiator for the Big Red, and not a good one.

2. Who are the last two seeded teams?

It’s some combination of Johns Hopkins, Loyola, Notre Dame and Syracuse. Strictly going by RPI, Hopkins and Loyola would seem to have the advantage. But Hopkins did lose to Loyola and Syracuse and didn’t land a top-10 victory, while Notre Dame has a head-to-head over Syracuse — a comparison of two teams that beat Duke earlier in the season.

It would come as no shock if it turns out some of the most robust discussions revolve around sorting out those four teams.