Losses are piling up | Syracusefan.com

Losses are piling up

cto

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With the loss today by #9 Michigan State (their fourth), very few D-1 teams have fewer than four losses. We and WSU have zero; Zona and San Diego State have one; Nova, Florida, St Louis and Stephen Austin (of the mighty Southland Conference) each have two; and Cincy, Toledo and Creighton each have three.

Each loss by a top 10 team keeps improving our position for Selection Sunday. Now all we have to do is to keep winning!
 
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jordoo

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With the loss today by #9 Michigan State (their fourth), very few D-1 teams have fewer than four losses. We and WSU have zero; Zona and San Diego State have one; Nova, Florida, St Louis and Stephen Austin (of the mighty Southland Conference) each have two; and Cincy, Toledo and Creighton each have three.

Each loss by a top 10 team keeps improving our position for Selection Sunday. Now all we have to do is to keep winning!

I have been thinking about this as well lately. You glance at the standings and see a lot of losses next to most of those teams names and realize that we are in great position. Its not over yet obviously but I'm liking this season so far.
 

jekelish

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Right now we are sitting in the very definition of the position to control our own destiny.
 

jncuse

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I have been thinking for a while, 4 losses will get us where we want. #1 in MSG.

Someone slammed the notion of Kansas getting a #1 seed with 7 losses. But losses amongst power conference teams are growing.

Let's remember - Indiana got a #1 seed with 6 losses last year.
In 2012, Michigan St got a #1 seed with 7 losses.

Obviously, our schedule is not that at those levels, but if we have a few losses it is fine.
 

Dave85

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Let's remember - Indiana got a #1 seed with 6 losses last year.

At Pitt, at Duke, at Virginia are going to be tough games. But if our guys keep working hard and we win those three games, holy moly!!!

We sure busted a lot of brackets last year in that sweet 16 game! It's still making me smile!
 

Madbiker

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What happens in this scenario:
SU loses at Pitt, Duke, and UVA. We end the regular season 28-3 but do not win the ACC regular season as UVA finishes 1st with 1 or 2 loses. In the ACCT we win our quarterfinal game then match up with Duke again in the semis and lose to them for a 2nd time. So on Selection Sunday SU is sitting 29-4 but didn't win the ACC regular season or tournament championship. Does Cuse still get a #1 seed? Do we get placed in MSG for the eastern regional or do we get kicked out while Duke or Florida gets #1 at MSG with Nova as the #2?
Note: Alsacs you're pretty analytic about this what say you?
 

jncuse

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I do think the interesting complexity for #1 seeds this year, is that right now there are a few more teams in contention from conferences that are average. The MWC and MVC are down this year, but they have a 0 loss and 1 loss team, which they normally don't have at this time of year.

It adds some complexity to the #1 seed discussion, because you will have good teams, with major differences in losses, but also major differences in win quality.

Villanova is sort of a mid-major as wel - the Big East is not really deep into tourney contenders. But it is also in contention for a #1 seed.
 

Dave85

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What happens in this scenario:
SU loses at Pitt, Duke, and UVA. We end the regular season 28-3 but do not win the ACC regular season as UVA finishes 1st with 1 or 2 loses. In the ACCT we win our quarterfinal game then match up with Duke again in the semis and lose to them for a 2nd time. So on Selection Sunday SU is sitting 29-4 but didn't win the ACC regular season or tournament championship. Does Cuse still get a #1 seed? Do we get placed in MSG for the eastern regional or do we get kicked out while Duke or Florida gets #1 at MSG with Nova as the #2?
Note: Alsacs you're pretty analytic about this what say you?

In that scenario, I don't think we get a #1 seed. But I think we are going to go at least 2 for 3 against Pitt, Duke, and UVA. Maybe better.
 

pfister1

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Don't sleep on Michigan State...all of their recent losses have come with at least one starter missing from their lineup due to injury. They played today without Appling or Dawson and it was only Payne's second game back after missing 7.

They are a walking M*A*S*H unit, but I don't think they've lost anyone permanently.
 

jncuse

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What happens in this scenario:
SU loses at Pitt, Duke, and UVA. We end the regular season 28-3 but do not win the ACC regular season as UVA finishes 1st with 1 or 2 loses. In the ACCT we win our quarterfinal game then match up with Duke again in the semis and lose to them for a 2nd time. So on Selection Sunday SU is sitting 29-4 but didn't win the ACC regular season or tournament championship. Does Cuse still get a #1 seed? Do we get placed in MSG for the eastern regional or do we get kicked out while Duke or Florida gets #1 at MSG with Nova as the #2?
Note: Alsacs you're pretty analytic about this what say you?

Not Alsacs, but my view is that winning either conference title is not essential to us getting a #1 seed.
1) Committee has de-emphasized conference standing and titles due to imbalanced schedules
2) The "Entire Body of Work" that emphasizes that a November game is just as important as a game in early March, also goes to reduce the importance of a title.

It just really depends on what your overall resume is (W and L's.) and what goes on around you in individual games, not necessarily who is getting titles.

I am going to try to analyze this fairly simplistically in terms of overall losses vs other teams that would get us ahead of them.

Duke
I posted some time back with a long explanation that Duke would likely be ahead of us on the s-curve if we had 4 losses and they had 6 losses, in a scenario similar to the one you presented

Nova
Nova though is a different story.
- Right now, each team is projecting to play 5 top 25 RPI games.
- We are projected to play 5 26-50 games and Nova is projected to play 4.
- Despite our projected SOS entering the conference tourney being 66 and Villanova being 19, the schedules are basically going to be viewed equally as we actually play one more top 50 game.

We have the advantage over Nova because of our convincing victory over them. IMO, Nova would need to have one less loss than us to be viewed above us on the s-curve. So if we end with 4 losses, Nova would have to run the table and end with 3 losses. I don't think Nova is capable of running the table. So I am not too scared of Nova if we go 15-3 in the ACC and lose in the Semi's

Florida

As for Florida - if they have 4 losses we are probably ahead of them. If they have 3 losses they are probably ahead of us. Florida could take us out of a #1 seed, but they will not take us out of a #2 if we are both #2 seeds. Florida would play in the South Region as #2 not MSG. I just don't see Florida as a threat for MSG, because it is ours as a #2 seed as long as we take care of Duke.

Worst Scenario
I guess if Florida ends with 3 losses, and Duke with 6 losses, and us with 4 losses, you could see Florida as #1, Duke as the east #2, and us somewhere else as the #2. I am eliminating Nova from the discussion because for them to impact us at 4 losses, they need to run the table - very unlikely.

The main concern is beating Duke on the s-curve IMO. If that happens we should be fine for MSG. The magic number for that is 3 losses for us, or 7 losses for them.
 
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Dave85

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In my humble opinion getting the #1 seed in the East is a big deal that is worth talking about.
 

IthacaMatt

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With the loss today by #9 Michigan State (their fourth), very few D-1 teams have fewer than four losses. We and WSU have zero; Zona and San Diego State have one; Nova, Florida, St Louis and Stephen Austin (of the mighty Southland Conference) each have two; and Cincy, Toledo and Creighton each have three.

Each loss by a top 10 team keeps improving our position for Selection Sunday. Now all we have to do is to keep winning!


Yes, it's amazing to think that we are building a bit of a cushion over the field regarding locking up a 1 seed. We just have to navigate these upcoming road games well. We can survive a loss at Duke, and maybe even Pitt, too, and still win the conference and lock up a 1 seed, so long as we take care of teams like UVa, Maryland and Florida State on the road.
 

IthacaMatt

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What happens in this scenario:
SU loses at Pitt, Duke, and UVA. We end the regular season 28-3 but do not win the ACC regular season as UVA finishes 1st with 1 or 2 loses. In the ACCT we win our quarterfinal game then match up with Duke again in the semis and lose to them for a 2nd time. So on Selection Sunday SU is sitting 29-4 but didn't win the ACC regular season or tournament championship. Does Cuse still get a #1 seed? Do we get placed in MSG for the eastern regional or do we get kicked out while Duke or Florida gets #1 at MSG with Nova as the #2?
Note: Alsacs you're pretty analytic about this what say you?


UVa is our biggest game, along with at Florida State. We can survive losses in return games at Pitt and Duke because we will have split with them both. Take care of UVa and we should win the league. The only really dangerous game apart from those is Florida State, IMO, because they have size and play good defense.
 

jordoo

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@ Maryland could end up being tough as well

Its cool there will be a pretty big posse of SU fans in attendance especially with no @ Gtown or Nova game this year. MD plays its best up and down, they turn it over a lot, don't play great defense and love to jack quick threes. Plus they only play good for 4min at a time then bad for 10. I think they are one of the best match ups for us in conference otherwise I'd agree after being @ Duke Saturday and then still on the road Monday would be tough. MD is a real mess this year though and stylistically they do everything you can't do against us and stay in the game.
 

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