What happens in this scenario:
SU loses at Pitt, Duke, and UVA. We end the regular season 28-3 but do not win the ACC regular season as UVA finishes 1st with 1 or 2 loses. In the ACCT we win our quarterfinal game then match up with Duke again in the semis and lose to them for a 2nd time. So on Selection Sunday SU is sitting 29-4 but didn't win the ACC regular season or tournament championship. Does Cuse still get a #1 seed? Do we get placed in MSG for the eastern regional or do we get kicked out while Duke or Florida gets #1 at MSG with Nova as the #2?
Note: Alsacs you're pretty analytic about this what say you?
Not Alsacs, but my view is that winning either conference title is not essential to us getting a #1 seed.
1) Committee has de-emphasized conference standing and titles due to imbalanced schedules
2) The "Entire Body of Work" that emphasizes that a November game is just as important as a game in early March, also goes to reduce the importance of a title.
It just really depends on what your overall resume is (W and L's.) and what goes on around you in individual games, not necessarily who is getting titles.
I am going to try to analyze this fairly simplistically in terms of overall losses vs other teams that would get us ahead of them.
Duke
I posted some time back with a long explanation that Duke would likely be ahead of us on the s-curve if we had 4 losses and they had 6 losses, in a scenario similar to the one you presented
Nova
Nova though is a different story.
- Right now, each team is projecting to play 5 top 25 RPI games.
- We are projected to play 5 26-50 games and Nova is projected to play 4.
- Despite our projected SOS entering the conference tourney being 66 and Villanova being 19, the schedules are basically going to be viewed equally as we actually play one more top 50 game.
We have the advantage over Nova because of our convincing victory over them. IMO, Nova would need to have one less loss than us to be viewed above us on the s-curve. So if we end with 4 losses, Nova would have to run the table and end with 3 losses. I don't think Nova is capable of running the table. So I am not too scared of Nova if we go 15-3 in the ACC and lose in the Semi's
Florida
As for Florida - if they have 4 losses we are probably ahead of them. If they have 3 losses they are probably ahead of us. Florida could take us out of a #1 seed, but they will not take us out of a #2 if we are both #2 seeds. Florida would play in the South Region as #2 not MSG. I just don't see Florida as a threat for MSG, because it is ours as a #2 seed as long as we take care of Duke.
Worst Scenario
I guess if Florida ends with 3 losses, and Duke with 6 losses, and us with 4 losses, you could see Florida as #1, Duke as the east #2, and us somewhere else as the #2. I am eliminating Nova from the discussion because for them to impact us at 4 losses, they need to run the table - very unlikely.
The main concern is beating Duke on the s-curve IMO. If that happens we should be fine for MSG. The magic number for that is 3 losses for us, or 7 losses for them.