Not sure what to think about Louisville. IMO they have underachieved since Petrino came back. His bread and butter is the passing game and he doesn't have a QB whose strength is passing. Teams are going to make them win it through the air.
Last year they were 0-5 vs the Sagarin Top 40 in the regular season. They did beat A&M (33rd) in their Bowl game, which was by far their best win. During the season they had only ONE Top 60 Sagarin win (#50 NC State). They also played a lot of close games. Auburn, Houston, and Clemson were all close losses. But they also had close wins over NC State, BC, Wake, and UVA. Glass half full they will turn those close losses into wins this year. Glass have empty they are nothing more than the 7-5 team they were last year.
I could see Louisville being a Top 15 team this year. But I could also see them being upset by a team or two below them. Luckily for them they have an extremely weak schedule. FSU and Clemson are the only sure fire Top 50 teams on their schedule. They could easily go 10-2 while winning a bunch of close games over inferior opponents.
I like that we have them game #2 where they won't be at their peak. In addition there is the possibility they over look us given our record last year and playing FSU the next week. However they kicked our ass last year so it will be a hard flip.