Maryland had to go to the Big 10

[JimBoston]

I don't think it's hard to understand Maryland's move to the Big 10. Sure, finances were a primary driver, and they are leaving behind their primary rivals, but I think there is more to the story.

Clearly, conference realignment is not over and there are many ACC schools that would jump at the chance of leaving the conference. If Maryland didn't accept the offer, don't you think BC, Pitt, and Syracuse would in a nanosecond? Of course. What about FSU and Clemson? If the SEC ever offered, they would leave in a nanosecond and so too would NC State and possibly Virginia Tech. I don't think anyone is pining for the Big 12, except Louisville, but that is a soft landing spot for any ACC school.

The ACC has a long term media contract that is below the Big 10, SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12, which makes them vulnerable to defections. If the Big 12 added say 4 to 6 ACC schools and added a conference championship, they could redo their contract and widen the gap with the current ACC. Honestly, the only way the current ACC stays together long term is if Notre Dame joins as a full member. But, ND would be happy to remain a football independent if a "new" ACC included BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, UConn, Cincy, Temple, USF, UCF,... and allowed them to be a partial member.

So, if Maryland didn't accept the Big 10's bid, there might not have been a spot for them in one of the 4 major conferences when the music stopped. And, they were probably going to lose their traditional rivals anyway. They had to go.

 

[upperdeck]

isnt this like taking on long term debt? you pay out 50 million and take 4-5 years to get it back in a world that has so many unknowns? if the under armour dude is gonna pay it why not just pay out the debt and stay?

 

[billsin01]

I don't think it's hard to understand Maryland's move to the Big 10. Sure, finances were a primary driver, and they are leaving behind their primary rivals, but I think there is more to the story.

Clearly, conference realignment is not over and there are many ACC schools that would jump at the chance of leaving the conference. If Maryland didn't accept the offer, don't you think BC, Pitt, and Syracuse would in a nanosecond? Of course. What about FSU and Clemson? If the SEC ever offered, they would leave in a nanosecond and so too would NC State and possibly Virginia Tech. I don't think anyone is pining for the Big 12, except Louisville, but that is a soft landing spot for any ACC school.

The ACC has a long term media contract that is below the Big 10, SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12, which makes them vulnerable to defections. If the Big 12 added say 4 to 6 ACC schools and added a conference championship, they could redo their contract and widen the gap with the current ACC. Honestly, the only way the current ACC stays together long term is if Notre Dame joins as a full member. But, ND would be happy to remain a football independent if a "new" ACC included BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, UConn, Cincy, Temple, USF, UCF,... and allowed them to be a partial member.

So, if Maryland didn't accept the Big 10's bid, there might not have been a spot for them in one of the 4 major conferences when the music stopped. And, they were probably going to lose their traditional rivals anyway. They had to go.

First of all that's a ton of what-ifs. Not saying you're wrong or that it's not a compelling case, merely that it's a lot of what-ifs.

But there are plenty of what-ifs that you fail to mention that could portray the move in a different light. For example, the ACC could remain largely in tact going forward. Is it likely? I don't pretend to know, but the notion that there isn't going to be some sort of east coast conference that includes enough schools so as not to be "left out" entirely is almost assured. Would there be a gap money wise? Absolutely, but again, we're talking solely money, not anything else.

Secondly, what happens if the promised TV money either isn't there or slows as cable companies develop more ways to advertise in prime time, etc., and sports is no longer considered the only way to advertise "live" to audiences? Let's be honest -- this will happen. And at that point MD finds itself in a conference where they are incurring a massive amount of travel costs and paying their coaches big money (another result of the influx of cash is that you spend more on coaches, facilities, etc.) and playing as, potentially, an irrelevant member of a midwest conference.

Anyway, who knows. I don't blame them for moving for money and perceived security. What I really don't get is how, long-term, the Big 10 somehow demands some huge payday b/c they added UMD, RU and some other non-factors like Ga Tech and Syracuse or Pitt or whomever. I just don't think the money is going to be there forever the way these athletic departments think it is.

 

[Townie72]

I don't think it's hard to understand Maryland's move to the Big 10. Sure, finances were a primary driver, and they are leaving behind their primary rivals, but I think there is more to the story.

Clearly, conference realignment is not over and there are many ACC schools that would jump at the chance of leaving the conference. If Maryland didn't accept the offer, don't you think BC, Pitt, and Syracuse would in a nanosecond? Of course. What about FSU and Clemson? If the SEC ever offered, they would leave in a nanosecond and so too would NC State and possibly Virginia Tech. I don't think anyone is pining for the Big 12, except Louisville, but that is a soft landing spot for any ACC school.

The ACC has a long term media contract that is below the Big 10, SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12, which makes them vulnerable to defections. If the Big 12 added say 4 to 6 ACC schools and added a conference championship, they could redo their contract and widen the gap with the current ACC. Honestly, the only way the current ACC stays together long term is if Notre Dame joins as a full member. But, ND would be happy to remain a football independent if a "new" ACC included BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, UConn, Cincy, Temple, USF, UCF,... and allowed them to be a partial member.

So, if Maryland didn't accept the Big 10's bid, there might not have been a spot for them in one of the 4 major conferences when the music stopped. And, they were probably going to lose their traditional rivals anyway. They had to go.

I don’t agree with a lot of what you said.

First look at what really happened. The Big Ten picked off schools with large numbers of cable subscribers in their State.

The Big Ten absorbed Nebraska because it was a quality, brand name school. But then they shifted their strategy to schools with large cable TV markets who would be unable to say “no”.

It looks to me like the lion’s attacked the antelopes that were limping badly. These were schools and athletic departments that were in dire straits.

The Big Ten got two schools which were operating their athletic departments at a multi-million dollar losses. Rutgers was $26 million in the red.

Both schools had expanded their stadiums.
Both schools had cut sports (Rutgers = 5, Maryland -7)
Rutgers was in a dire circumstance relative to the New, New Big East which was looking more and more like the old C-USA.

You wrote, “Honestly, the only way the current ACC stays together long term is if Notre Dame joins as a full member.”

As The Dude said, “Well that’s like your opinion, Man”.

You wrote, “there are many ACC schools that would jump at the chance of leaving the conference.”

You are sounding like The Big Ten is some sort of sports nirvana. It’s not. It’s Midwestern, Cold Weather. And its dominated by schools with huge enrollments and stadiums with a capacity of more than 100K.

Let’s see what happens after Ohio State lays 50 or 60 points on RU or Maryland. (Have you noticed what the Big 12 schools are doing to WVU?)

Would UNC or GT jump at that … if they really didn’t need the money as desperately as Rutgers and MD did? I have my doubts.

 

[JimBoston]

billsin01: If you assume the Big 10 adds two more Eastern member and aligns in pods, the travel and rivalry problems go away. Yes, there is more travel in the Big 10, but Syracuse is farther from Miami and Florida State than Maryland is from any Big 10 school. And, Maryland has two Big 10 schools that are closer to Maryland then the two closest schools in the ACC are to Syracuse.

If the next two Big 10 schools are made up of any of the following: Syracuse, Pitt, BC, UConn, Virginia, ND, or UNC, I think Maryland will be in a great position.

 

[JimBoston]

I don’t agree with a lot of what you said.

First look at what really happened. The Big Ten picked off schools with large numbers of cable subscribers in their State.

The Big Ten absorbed Nebraska because it was a quality, brand name school. But then they shifted their strategy to schools with large cable TV markets who would be unable to say “no”.

It looks to me like the lion’s attacked the antelopes that were limping badly. These were schools and athletic departments that were in dire straits.

The Big Ten got two schools which were operating their athletic departments at a multi-million dollar losses. Rutgers was $26 million in the red.

Both schools had expanded their stadiums.
Both schools had cut sports (Rutgers = 5, Maryland -7)
Rutgers was in a dire circumstance relative to the New, New Big East which was looking more and more like the old C-USA.

You wrote, “Honestly, the only way the current ACC stays together long term is if Notre Dame joins as a full member.”

As The Dude said, “Well that’s like your opinion, Man”.

You wrote, “there are many ACC schools that would jump at the chance of leaving the conference.”

You are sounding like The Big Ten is some sort of sports nirvana. It’s not. It’s Midwestern, Cold Weather. And its dominated by schools with huge enrollments and stadiums with a capacity of more than 100K.

Let’s see what happens after Ohio State lays 50 or 60 points on RU or Maryland. (Have you noticed what the Big 12 schools are doing to WVU?)

Would UNC or GT jump at that … if they really didn’t need the money as desperately as Rutgers and MD did? I have my doubts.

Townie - I don't think the traditional ACC schools, except Maryland, would ever want to be in the Big 10. I think they all want to be in a southern conference. BC, Pitt, and Syracuse? Yes, they would all go to the Big 10. As for FSU and Clemson, ask any of their fans if they had a choice between ACC or SEC, which would they choose? SEC!

 

[billsin01]

billsin01: If you assume the Big 10 adds two more Eastern member and aligns in pods, the travel and rivalry problems go away. Yes, there is more travel in the Big 10, but Syracuse is farther from Miami and Florida State than Maryland is from any Big 10 school. And, Maryland has two Big 10 schools that are closer to Maryland then the two closest schools in the ACC are to Syracuse.

If the next two Big 10 schools are made up of any of the following: Syracuse, Pitt, BC, UConn, Virginia, ND, or UNC, I think Maryland will be in a great position.

Why are you comparing Maryland to Syracuse? I would have been fine with the Big East staying in tact, but that obviously wasn't happening. I think the Cuse will find similar things in the ACC with increased travel, etc.

Maryland had trips to Miami and Boston, but those are also cool destinations for fans and potential alumni hubs as opposed to columbus, ann arbor and lafayette, ill, etc. Otherwise, UMD was driving teams basically everywhere in teh acc -- charlottesville, the NC schools, blacksburg, clemson ...

So, your point is fine about UVA and UNC being added, but UMD doesn't have a clue who will be added and the pods fix the problem for football, but not for the 9,000 other sports affected, where presumably they will play the whole conference.

But the bottom line is that laying out a bunch of potential scenarios in no way makes for an iron clad case that this was a good move. Did they have to jump at the chance given the state of their athletic department? Maybe -- but the possibility of financial gain is the only reason for the move. And the operative word there is possibility -- they are far from guaranteed some sort of long-term financial stability at least as far as I can tell.

 

[Townie72]

Townie - I don't think the traditional ACC schools, except Maryland, would ever want to be in the Big 10. I think they all want to be in a southern conference. BC, Pitt, and Syracuse? Yes, they would all go to the Big 10. As for FSU and Clemson, ask any of their fans if they had a choice between ACC or SEC, which would they choose? SEC!

Jim ... I don't think SU can compete in the Big Ten. We are too small. Private. Play too few sports. Have too small a local market.

Just the scale of Ohio State or Michigan or Wisconsin or Penn State is daunting.

Oh, we can be Indiana. Or Illinois. Or Minnesota in the revenue sports.

I think we ended up in a Conference of similar schools to SU and that's a good thing. The same is true for BC.

Pitt's a little larger school and might be able to compete.

I am confident SU can compete in a number of sports in the ACC. I am unsure about the B1G.

 

[Crusty]

Last I checked the number of scholarships was the same for school with 100,000 enrollment and 1,000 enrollment. Recruiting has many factors for success or failure including:

1. facilities (which will be fairly equal over time when the current building boom stops);
2. playing in front of friends and family (within drving range);
3. winning tradition;
4. bowl record;
5. academics;
6. NFL draftees;
7. national visibility on TV; and,
8. coaching staff

I think SU can compete in any conference over time. Sure there would be ups and downs but there is no reason SU cannpt be a consistant top 25 program. Most conferences are dominated by a few good teams and the rest are just average. Every year even the SEC has a few stinker at the bottom and that will continue.

The ACC has and will for the foreseeable future be NC concentric. There is no way that NC, Wake or Duke is going anywhere and I think that can also be said for NCS. As long as that is the case the rest of the ACC will hold together even if an FSU took to the road.

The cable carriers are watching rating for sports flatten out or going down and the bundled costs going up. There will be downward pressure as the viewership growth flat lines and the pressure on prices gets more and more intense.

The eveyballs strategy is by no means a guarantee for succes in the future especially if the product is dilute. Does anyone think that MD and RU are going to do anything but dilute the football product?

 

[Townie72]

Last I checked the number of scholarships was the same for school with 100,000 enrollment and 1,000 enrollment. Recruiting has many factors for success or failure including:

1. facilities (which will be fairly equal over time when the current building boom stops);
2. playing in front of friends and family (within drving range);
3. winning tradition;
4. bowl record;
5. academics;
6. NFL draftees;
7. national visibility on TV; and,
8. coaching staff

I think SU can compete in any conference over time. Sure there would be ups and downs but there is no reason SU cannpt be a consistant top 25 program. Most conferences are dominated by a few good teams and the rest are just average. Every year even the SEC has a few stinker at the bottom and that will continue.

The ACC has and will for the foreseeable future be NC concentric. There is no way that NC, Wake or Duke is going anywhere and I think that can also be said for NCS. As long as that is the case the rest of the ACC will hold together even if an FSU took to the road.

The cable carriers are watching rating for sports flatten out or going down and the bundled costs going up. There will be downward pressure as the viewership growth flat lines and the pressure on prices gets more and more intense.

The eveyballs strategy is by no means a guarantee for succes in the future especially if the product is dilute. Does anyone think that MD and RU are going to do anything but dilute the football product?

Crusty ... I agree with much of what you say. And I was talking about the breadth of the Athletic Departments across multiple sports.

But let's just stick with football. Theoretically, size shouldn't matter all that much. But my personal hero, statistician W. Edward Deming, said that when the theory and the data are at odds ... go with the data.

I looked at the Big Ten standings. Then I looked at the Big Ten athletic budgets and stadium sizes.

Guess what ... The bigger the stadium, the bigger the athletic budget, the more likely the school was at the top of the standings in football. Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin were at the top. NW, Indiana, Minnesota were at the bottom.

So, while your theory is interesting, the data shows that the big schools dominate.

SU is more like Indiana than it is Ohio State.

 

[Orijinal]

JimBoston, See the statement put out today by every ACC school, then read the thread titled "What's It all about ...ACC"

 

[JimBoston]

JimBoston, See the statement put out today by every ACC school, then read the thread titled "What's It all about ...ACC"

Didn't I see multiple statements like this put out by schools in the Big East over the years? Also, it's kind of funny that the statement was signed by 4 schools currently in the Big East!

 

[Bayside44]

I don't think it's hard to understand Maryland's move to the Big 10. Sure, finances were a primary driver, and they are leaving behind their primary rivals, but I think there is more to the story.

Clearly, conference realignment is not over and there are many ACC schools that would jump at the chance of leaving the conference. If Maryland didn't accept the offer, don't you think BC, Pitt, and Syracuse would in a nanosecond? Of course. What about FSU and Clemson? If the SEC ever offered, they would leave in a nanosecond and so too would NC State and possibly Virginia Tech. I don't think anyone is pining for the Big 12, except Louisville, but that is a soft landing spot for any ACC school.

The ACC has a long term media contract that is below the Big 10, SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12, which makes them vulnerable to defections. If the Big 12 added say 4 to 6 ACC schools and added a conference championship, they could redo their contract and widen the gap with the current ACC. Honestly, the only way the current ACC stays together long term is if Notre Dame joins as a full member. But, ND would be happy to remain a football independent if a "new" ACC included BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, UConn, Cincy, Temple, USF, UCF,... and allowed them to be a partial member.

So, if Maryland didn't accept the Big 10's bid, there might not have been a spot for them in one of the 4 major conferences when the music stopped. And, they were probably going to lose their traditional rivals anyway. They had to go.

I think this is really overstated in a Kyle Lamb / YodaTuxedo kinda way.

First off, what music? Rutgers got lifted, fine, and Maryland, who is broke, got sold by 2 guys that are passing through town. And Maryland just decided to be sports roadkill for the rest of humanity. They joined a graying conference of huge landgrants...not exactly enticing for mid Atlantic kids.

The ACC has a deep culture, and this will be straightened out.

 

[JoeMing]

I think UMD's jump to big is short sighted. but it all depending on whether the current ACC can hold together. the ACC with UMD has the most potential of all the major conferences. it got the regions, population, and academics. Miami and FSU game used to be the hottest thing not long time ago. it takes a couple good team in the north and south to make ACC a football power. ND is now back. I truly believe that SU is on the way back. Can you see the potential of SU and ND become a big thing in NYC? Even without UMD, ACC is still a viable conference if it can hold together. without being able to crack ACC, big's options are limited. it is lucky they get UMD.

 

[JimBoston]

I think UMD's jump to big is short sighted. but it all depending on whether the current ACC can hold together. the ACC with UMD has the most potential of all the major conferences. it got the regions, population, and academics. Miami and FSU game used to be the hottest thing not long time ago. it takes a couple good team in the north and south to make ACC a football power. ND is now back. I truly believe that SU is on the way back. Can you see the potential of SU and ND become a big thing in NYC? Even without UMD, ACC is still a viable conference if it can hold together. without being able to crack ACC, big's options are limited. it is lucky they get UMD.

What markets does the ACC have? 1A in Florida and Kentucky, WAY distant second in Georgia and Pennsylvania, second in SC, 1 in North Carolina and Virginia, nobody cares in Massachusetts, and somewhat in NY. ND would add considerable value, but they aren't all in. Compare to the SEC: 1 in Florida, 1 in Georgia, 1 in Tennessee, 1 in South Carolina, 1 in Alabama, 1 in Arkansas, 1 in Mississippi, 1 in Missouri, 1 in Louisiana, 1 in Kentucky, 2 in Texas.

The ACC had the chance to be in a much better position by adding Rutgers and UConn and keeping Maryland. Rutgers and UConn should have been added with Syracuse and Pitt to go to 16 and allow for contract renegotiation. That would have given you three more states where the ACC would have been #1. If media rights value is going to come down to conference cable networks, the ACC has not made good strategic moves.

 

[javadoc]

...

Dawn take you, and be stone to you!

 

[All4SU]

PErsonally, I like the ACC much better than the Big10. The East coast is where SU's alumni are scattered. Alumni will be able to see games no matter where they are, and that's important for generating revenue and contributions. And I would rather play Pitt, BC, Virginia, UNC, Miami, GTech, VTech (oh, and Notre Dame) in football than Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. It would be great to have PSU in the ACC, but that's not happening. And in basketball, it's not even close. Different as night and day.

And selfishly, when I retire, I will probably be somewhere in ACC territory -- not in Minnesota. And that will be a very good thing.

 

[NKR1978]

The ACC has a deep culture, and this will be straightened out.

There are people at ACC schools that absolutely LOVE the ACC. The B1G and SEC have the same type of fans. If you've encountered a fan of an SEC doormat (Ole Miss) like I did in Vegas with that moron screaming "SEC SEC" in my face you'll know what I'm talking. I've had the same affinity and fondness for the Big East (basketball) and many of us here have as well (though I've never yelled "BIG EAST" in some poor Pac 12 or SEC basketball fan's face).

Does anyone love the Big 12? As long as they have OU and Texas they'll be fine, but they're a marriage of convenience. The only people who love the Big 12 are WVU, Baylor, TCU and Iowa State. Remarkably, for various reasons, those are the five schools with the greatest risk of being left behind when the Big 12 falls apart

 

[NKR1978]

Didn't I see multiple statements like this put out by schools in the Big East over the years? Also, it's kind of funny that the statement was signed by 4 schools currently in the Big East!

Could you point to one statement signed by the entire Big East that indicated a commitment to the conference?

 

[HtownOrange]

billsin01: If you assume the Big 10 adds two more Eastern member and aligns in pods, the travel and rivalry problems go away. Yes, there is more travel in the Big 10, but Syracuse is farther from Miami and Florida State than Maryland is from any Big 10 school. And, Maryland has two Big 10 schools that are closer to Maryland then the two closest schools in the ACC are to Syracuse.

If the next two Big 10 schools are made up of any of the following: Syracuse, Pitt, BC, UConn, Virginia, ND, or UNC, I think Maryland will be in a great position.

If the B1G expands via 2 eastern schools, they will screw over one of them. PSU, Rutgers and Maryland already make the eastern flank. Add one more, and you have your four team pod. Add two school, and one is forced to join the next pod over and misses out on the convenience you claim.

The B1G may take 1 east and 1 west, but who to take? Every school in the ACC that is attractive to the B1G is financially secure, and content. I agree that there may be more money in the B1g, but that is likely to even out over time.

Several factors will come into play:
1) There will be several college sports networks soon, the BTN will be one player. chances are that national rates drop for them or they get dropped completely in non-B1G regions if they don't play ball. The SEC region will certainly force the issue as almost no one will chose the BTN over an SECN.
2) Cable and Satellite will fade away, not out of existence, but they will lose subscribers as more and more TV, Movie and live events become available via the internet.
3) If the BTN product sucks, less and less people will want it. The football is great is you still love "three yards and a cloud of dust", but most people want some offense. Their hoops is generally boring, almost as bad as watching Georgetown under JTII with a 40 point game.
4) The region of the B1G footprint is growing slower than most other regions. One reason then need new territory is because the midwest is is losing ground (influence) over many newly developing states. The whole eastern seaboard, gulf states, Southwest are growing.

 

[HtownOrange]

Could you point to one statement signed by the entire Big East that indicated a commitment to the conference?

You mean something like, "We here at School X, are completely dedicated to making the Big East work. We hereby pledge to remain with our Big East brethren, even if they are only east of Hawaii, through thick and thin. Through good TV deal and bad tv deal. We will become a Big Boy Conference. We really mean the aforementioned statements, unless a better offer comes along."

 

[DoctorBombay]

If the B1G expands via 2 eastern schools, they will screw over one of them. PSU, Rutgers and Maryland already make the eastern flank. Add one more, and you have your four team pod. Add two school, and one is forced to join the next pod over and misses out on the convenience you claim.

The B1G may take 1 east and 1 west, but who to take? Every school in the ACC that is attractive to the B1G is financially secure, and content. I agree that there may be more money in the B1g, but that is likely to even out over time.

Several factors will come into play:
1) There will be several college sports networks soon, the BTN will be one player. chances are that national rates drop for them or they get dropped completely in non-B1G regions if they don't play ball. The SEC region will certainly force the issue as almost no one will chose the BTN over an SECN.
2) Cable and Satellite will fade away, not out of existence, but they will lose subscribers as more and more TV, Movie and live events become available via the internet.
3) If the BTN product sucks, less and less people will want it. The football is great is you still love "three yards and a cloud of dust", but most people want some offense. Their hoops is generally boring, almost as bad as watching Georgetown under JTII with a 40 point game.
4) The region of the B1G footprint is growing slower than most other regions. One reason then need new territory is because the midwest is is losing ground (influence) over many newly developing states. The whole eastern seaboard, gulf states, Southwest are growing.

Totally agree, especially on #2.
I'm hoping the technology eventually changes the game and the bubble bursts for short-sighted conferences. Like the real estate & internet bubbles, this one is bound to end badly.
The ACC recently made a great move signing on with Youtube/Google for streaming all their games. I believe this will pay enormous dividends in the years to come.

 

[HtownOrange]

Totally agree, especially on #2.
I'm hoping the technology eventually changes the game and the bubble bursts for short-sighted conferences. Like the real estate & internet bubbles, this one is bound to end badly.
The ACC recently made a great move signing on with Youtube/Google for streaming all their games. I believe this will pay enormous dividends in the years to come.

I wish I was more media savvy like many here, I would understand better how this will fall into place. I do know that the PAC 12 is doing a similar network and looking abroad as they recruit heavily in Asia. Granted, American football may not sell over there, but hoops, gymnastics, volleyball, etc. will probably do well enough and there are nearly 3 BILLION sets of eyes just there for the watching!

 

[JimBoston]

Could you point to one statement signed by the entire Big East that indicated a commitment to the conference?

You are correct, there is no "conference wide" statement that I remember, but every school in the BE at one time or another pledged their commitment.

Look, if the ACC wants to show commitment, use a grant of rights as that shows financial commitment to words. Until then, a written statement isn't worth much.

 

[DoctorBombay]

I wish I was more media savvy like many here, I would understand better how this will fall into place. I do know that the PAC 12 is doing a similar network and looking abroad as they recruit heavily in Asia. Granted, American football may not sell over there, but hoops, gymnastics, volleyball, etc. will probably do well enough and there are nearly 3 BILLION sets of eyes just there for the watching!

I'm technologically-challenged as well, but the gist is apps and alternate (read; I-Phones, etc.) media as the key factors.