Oakland
2022 Iggy Winner: ACC Record
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
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The Starters
Scoop – 2:1 A/TO ratio, 35.7% 3 pt shooting last season, pretty good - just one more assist, and one less TO and one less bad shot per game and Scoop is All-American this season.
Triche – I’m disappointed in BT only because I was very high on him coming out of HS. Solid BE guard but unspectacular to say the least, disappointing dip to 33% in 3pt shooting last season. I know many are expecting him to make a big jump this season, but besides some weight loss this seems to be pure optimism. He needs to step it up or MCW may be getting minutes from him.
KJ – very hard to believe that he made 40.9% of 3pt shots in BEC play (according to SU Athl anyways). This is a rare and spectacular improvement from the sub-mendoza line shooting in his first two seasons. I said he wouldn’t do it and I was wrong, congratulations to him. I would be very happy if he is in the high 30s for this season. Good to hear that he is embracing the mid-range game – I’ll believe it when I see it. Turning half of his charges into short jumpers would be significant all by itself. KJ looks ripe for a big senior season and I think he will have the help to do it.
Rak – yeah, I’m thinking JB continues the BT-Melo tradition and starts Rak over CJ. JB knows that the team needs at least two productive bigs, so I think JB is going to try and develop Rak’s high potential sooner rather than later. But I don’t see him playing big minutes, maybe 15-20.
Melo – I expect him to be much better but that might only bring him up to a serviceable BEC center. I’d be happy with 6 and 5 in 20 minutes.
The Bench
CJ Fair – I am all in on this guy. Josh Pace with a jumper, a little poetry in Moten, big time starter his last two seasons. I think he shoots more this season and makes a decent % of both mid and long shots. Gets a lot of ‘4’ minutes when Rak isn’t in and some when KJ is resting. I’m very happy this guy is on our team, CJ will help SU be very good the next 3 yrs.
Waiters – not as high on this guy as many of you: his shooting sucks and (unlike KJ) his form doesn’t look good, but he is a good FT shooter so I guess there is some hope. He was suppose to get to the rim at will, but I saw that all of twice last season. If he leaves early it will be to play in Israel or Lativa, not the NBA. I like that Orangeyes and others say he is looking much better than last season, I hope he actually is much better, but he shot 31% overall in the BEC last season, so he needs to be much better just to be average. I expect MCW to get at least as many minutes as Dion.
Keita – our most productive and proven big. The guy was, at the least, a serviceable back up big last season. At this point, he has the highest floor of our 3 bigs. I see him being a good backup this season (maybe even better than Rak and/or Melo) and may start if Melo continues to struggle. BMK will get minutes and he will produce even if it isn’t a lot of pts.
MCW – another guy that I am all in on. He supposedly is good at everything – including defensive – and I believe it. He is potentially a much better scorer than the other three guards and it won’t surprise me if we see that this season. MCW will be in the rota this season and if BT and Waiters don’t step up, I think MCW gets as many or more minutes than either of them.
That would make 9 players in the rota: more than usual but I think JB plays all of them 10+ minutes per game.
The Others
Southerland – like last preseason, I just don’t see where or why he gets minutes. JB gave JS the most extended opportunity I have ever seen him give to a relatively unproductive player - a bigger chance than Mookie ever got. I hope JS improves his consistency and JB plays 10 and JS contributes, but I doubt it happens. Maybe he gets real minutes if Melo and Rak disappoint.
Mookie – I’ve given up hope for Mookie, if he didn’t play last season in those games when we really needed an offensive spark then I can’t see him playing this season. But I do think Mookie will be ahead of Cooney.
Cooney – he will be a good player, maybe a good BEC starting SG in a couple of years, but I can’t see him playing much this season.
Dashonte Riley – he is a loss. It’s not that I expected him to be good, although he might have ended up being our best big this season, it’s that we need at least 2 productive bigs this year and 4 chances is a hell of a lot better than 3 chances for players to step up. And then there is the practice thing. Good luck Dashonte.
The Loss
Rick Jackson – the end of the Jackson/Onuaku era: if you remember Forth, Watkins, and Roberts, you know what I mean. I’m not worried about Rick’s rebs or pts, I’m worried about the loss of his defensive presence and knowledge.
The Stars
KJ and CJ should be big time players this season and KJ might even break out into the national limelight. However, MCW is the guy that could be really special for us. Lots of freshmen over the last 10 years have been stars. I’m hoping BT and Dion are better, but MCW is still too good to keep on the bench and becomes our next Moten/Coleman/McNamara/Starmelo.
The Season
Just a quick look back at last season to put this season in perspective. General20 had a good post (back ~ Feb, sorry, I can’t link it) about the team being consistently inconsistent that captured the team’s performance better than most posts. One of his points was that that would doom us against a very good team in the NCAA (we’ll never know since we lost to Marq).
And while we are on the subject, what a screw job that SU played a BEC team in the second round of the NCAA. One of the great advantages of the zone is playing teams unfamiliar with it in the NCAA. We should have beaten Marq anyways but that lost almost seemed chiseled in stone when the brackets were announced.
I am going to use a similar but different concept: competitive incompetence. SU beat weak teams by a few points while looking bad doing it and they beat good teams while mostly looking bad on their way to an 18-0 record. They then lost a bunch of games against mostly good teams while looking bad yet, even then, they were close in the last minutes: SU was clearly competitive but looked incompetent most of the way. The good news is that the main problems: poor shot selection, cheap fouls, charges, and TOs should be reduced with more experience (see below).
I agree that SU is loaded with talent this season – 4 star talent (with a sprinkle of new 5 star talent). Lots of 4 star talent, but don’t confuse SU with UNC or Kentucky: those teams are loaded with 5 star talent. All this 4 star talent sounds impressive and it is compared to most teams. The problem is, only 5 guys are on the court at once. The good news is that experienced 4 star talent is generally as good as inexperienced 5 star talent (see our game against UNC 2 years ago), so I think we have a good shot at beating inexperienced Kentucky (BTW, I think it would have been better for UK if Knight had come back not Jones) but not experienced UNC.
One knew that last season would not be as good as the previous season because of the large drop in experience. We basically replaced three 4 and 5 yr guys with frosh and sophomores. This season the experience level goes back up: 4 starters and 3 bench players from last season each have another year of experience – that is a lot more experience. Everyone focuses on who is going to make the big sophomore jump (and now the big senior jump) and there are a slew of candidates who might do that this season, and it would be great if 2 or 4 do, but this team will be much better if the guys just make marginal improvements. A couple less TOs, a few less bad shots Scoop, one less charge Kris, a couple less stupid fouls Melo, a couple more extra passes, a little better rebounding position, etc. and the team could be much better, final four better. Almost every player in the rota will have another year of experience in knowing how to avoid these mistakes.
I am not worried about the offense. Last season the team should have been a dribble-drive dish or dunk type team but ended up being a dribble-drive-charge type team. We should have more fire power and make less mistakes than last season. The perimeter defense should also be better. The interior defensive is bound to struggle early, but this is Rak’s strength and Melo and Keita will both have another year of experience, so we may be OK there.
Should be a great season for the Cuse, maybe special.
My Prediction
26-5 (14-4 BEC champs) 2-1 4-1 Unfortunately, UNC looks too good and will probably win the NC.
Scoop – 2:1 A/TO ratio, 35.7% 3 pt shooting last season, pretty good - just one more assist, and one less TO and one less bad shot per game and Scoop is All-American this season.
Triche – I’m disappointed in BT only because I was very high on him coming out of HS. Solid BE guard but unspectacular to say the least, disappointing dip to 33% in 3pt shooting last season. I know many are expecting him to make a big jump this season, but besides some weight loss this seems to be pure optimism. He needs to step it up or MCW may be getting minutes from him.
KJ – very hard to believe that he made 40.9% of 3pt shots in BEC play (according to SU Athl anyways). This is a rare and spectacular improvement from the sub-mendoza line shooting in his first two seasons. I said he wouldn’t do it and I was wrong, congratulations to him. I would be very happy if he is in the high 30s for this season. Good to hear that he is embracing the mid-range game – I’ll believe it when I see it. Turning half of his charges into short jumpers would be significant all by itself. KJ looks ripe for a big senior season and I think he will have the help to do it.
Rak – yeah, I’m thinking JB continues the BT-Melo tradition and starts Rak over CJ. JB knows that the team needs at least two productive bigs, so I think JB is going to try and develop Rak’s high potential sooner rather than later. But I don’t see him playing big minutes, maybe 15-20.
Melo – I expect him to be much better but that might only bring him up to a serviceable BEC center. I’d be happy with 6 and 5 in 20 minutes.
The Bench
CJ Fair – I am all in on this guy. Josh Pace with a jumper, a little poetry in Moten, big time starter his last two seasons. I think he shoots more this season and makes a decent % of both mid and long shots. Gets a lot of ‘4’ minutes when Rak isn’t in and some when KJ is resting. I’m very happy this guy is on our team, CJ will help SU be very good the next 3 yrs.
Waiters – not as high on this guy as many of you: his shooting sucks and (unlike KJ) his form doesn’t look good, but he is a good FT shooter so I guess there is some hope. He was suppose to get to the rim at will, but I saw that all of twice last season. If he leaves early it will be to play in Israel or Lativa, not the NBA. I like that Orangeyes and others say he is looking much better than last season, I hope he actually is much better, but he shot 31% overall in the BEC last season, so he needs to be much better just to be average. I expect MCW to get at least as many minutes as Dion.
Keita – our most productive and proven big. The guy was, at the least, a serviceable back up big last season. At this point, he has the highest floor of our 3 bigs. I see him being a good backup this season (maybe even better than Rak and/or Melo) and may start if Melo continues to struggle. BMK will get minutes and he will produce even if it isn’t a lot of pts.
MCW – another guy that I am all in on. He supposedly is good at everything – including defensive – and I believe it. He is potentially a much better scorer than the other three guards and it won’t surprise me if we see that this season. MCW will be in the rota this season and if BT and Waiters don’t step up, I think MCW gets as many or more minutes than either of them.
That would make 9 players in the rota: more than usual but I think JB plays all of them 10+ minutes per game.
The Others
Southerland – like last preseason, I just don’t see where or why he gets minutes. JB gave JS the most extended opportunity I have ever seen him give to a relatively unproductive player - a bigger chance than Mookie ever got. I hope JS improves his consistency and JB plays 10 and JS contributes, but I doubt it happens. Maybe he gets real minutes if Melo and Rak disappoint.
Mookie – I’ve given up hope for Mookie, if he didn’t play last season in those games when we really needed an offensive spark then I can’t see him playing this season. But I do think Mookie will be ahead of Cooney.
Cooney – he will be a good player, maybe a good BEC starting SG in a couple of years, but I can’t see him playing much this season.
Dashonte Riley – he is a loss. It’s not that I expected him to be good, although he might have ended up being our best big this season, it’s that we need at least 2 productive bigs this year and 4 chances is a hell of a lot better than 3 chances for players to step up. And then there is the practice thing. Good luck Dashonte.
The Loss
Rick Jackson – the end of the Jackson/Onuaku era: if you remember Forth, Watkins, and Roberts, you know what I mean. I’m not worried about Rick’s rebs or pts, I’m worried about the loss of his defensive presence and knowledge.
The Stars
KJ and CJ should be big time players this season and KJ might even break out into the national limelight. However, MCW is the guy that could be really special for us. Lots of freshmen over the last 10 years have been stars. I’m hoping BT and Dion are better, but MCW is still too good to keep on the bench and becomes our next Moten/Coleman/McNamara/Starmelo.
The Season
Just a quick look back at last season to put this season in perspective. General20 had a good post (back ~ Feb, sorry, I can’t link it) about the team being consistently inconsistent that captured the team’s performance better than most posts. One of his points was that that would doom us against a very good team in the NCAA (we’ll never know since we lost to Marq).
And while we are on the subject, what a screw job that SU played a BEC team in the second round of the NCAA. One of the great advantages of the zone is playing teams unfamiliar with it in the NCAA. We should have beaten Marq anyways but that lost almost seemed chiseled in stone when the brackets were announced.
I am going to use a similar but different concept: competitive incompetence. SU beat weak teams by a few points while looking bad doing it and they beat good teams while mostly looking bad on their way to an 18-0 record. They then lost a bunch of games against mostly good teams while looking bad yet, even then, they were close in the last minutes: SU was clearly competitive but looked incompetent most of the way. The good news is that the main problems: poor shot selection, cheap fouls, charges, and TOs should be reduced with more experience (see below).
I agree that SU is loaded with talent this season – 4 star talent (with a sprinkle of new 5 star talent). Lots of 4 star talent, but don’t confuse SU with UNC or Kentucky: those teams are loaded with 5 star talent. All this 4 star talent sounds impressive and it is compared to most teams. The problem is, only 5 guys are on the court at once. The good news is that experienced 4 star talent is generally as good as inexperienced 5 star talent (see our game against UNC 2 years ago), so I think we have a good shot at beating inexperienced Kentucky (BTW, I think it would have been better for UK if Knight had come back not Jones) but not experienced UNC.
One knew that last season would not be as good as the previous season because of the large drop in experience. We basically replaced three 4 and 5 yr guys with frosh and sophomores. This season the experience level goes back up: 4 starters and 3 bench players from last season each have another year of experience – that is a lot more experience. Everyone focuses on who is going to make the big sophomore jump (and now the big senior jump) and there are a slew of candidates who might do that this season, and it would be great if 2 or 4 do, but this team will be much better if the guys just make marginal improvements. A couple less TOs, a few less bad shots Scoop, one less charge Kris, a couple less stupid fouls Melo, a couple more extra passes, a little better rebounding position, etc. and the team could be much better, final four better. Almost every player in the rota will have another year of experience in knowing how to avoid these mistakes.
I am not worried about the offense. Last season the team should have been a dribble-drive dish or dunk type team but ended up being a dribble-drive-charge type team. We should have more fire power and make less mistakes than last season. The perimeter defense should also be better. The interior defensive is bound to struggle early, but this is Rak’s strength and Melo and Keita will both have another year of experience, so we may be OK there.
Should be a great season for the Cuse, maybe special.
My Prediction
26-5 (14-4 BEC champs) 2-1 4-1 Unfortunately, UNC looks too good and will probably win the NC.
