My road to the championship - Cuse style

[orangenauburn]

UNCA
90%
They play up tempo and struggle on boards

KSt
70%
They remind me of the Cuse teams from the mid-2000's ... lots of athletes, no bball iq

Wiscy
50%
ND on steroids -- tough draw if it happens, would be mid 50's scoring game

tOSU
50%
Never have felt threatened by tOSU ... let Sullinger get his and contain Buford ... our guards can contain theirs and dictate tempo

Kansas
30%
This team scares the $#!+ out of me. They would match up very well with us and have size and depth. They are a better version of UConn.

Kentucky
50%
Always felt that if we got to face UK we would win. Just one of those feelings that we would be able to stymie their ball handlers (even while being eaten alive by AD).


what are your thoughts?

 

[jdubs30]

So you're more scared of Kansas than anyone else? If we got KU instead of UNC I'd be absolutely ecstatic.

 

[pfister1]

UNCA is 99.9%
Southern Miss will beat KSU and we'll beat them 83%
Harvard beats Wiscy and we beat Harvard 90%
OSU 55%
KU/UNC winner 40%
UK 35%

 

[rstone7727]

UNCA - 95%
Kansas St - 65%
Vandy - 60%
Ohio st - 50%
UNC - 45%
Missouri - 45%

 

[ORRange]

S. Miss is a very strange team. They are 263rd (just .416%) from the floor, don't turn it over and shoot it well from the 3 point line (.358) with seven players shooting over 34% from the 3pt. line. I don't know if I would rather deal with K-St crashing the offensive glass or trying to cover the shooters on S. Miss. Only saw them once...anyone know about them?

 

[fairfaxcuse]

The cumulative odds based on OrangeNaburn's post is that SU will win a championship 2% of the time. Pfister, who has the most optimistic scenario thus far above, would have SU winning a title 6% of the time.

This just underscores how tough it is to get through the tourney if you believe you your own predictions. Even if you are a 90% favorite in all games 1 through 6, you only win the tourney about half the time.

I think we are understating our potential to win these early games...at least I hope we are.

 

[HoustonCuse]

The cumulative odds based on OrangeNaburn's post is that SU will win a championship 2% of the time. Pfister, who has the most optimistic scenario thus far above, would have SU winning a title 6% of the time.

This just underscores how tough it is to get through the tourney if you believe you your own predictions. Even if you are a 90% favorite in all games 1 through 6, you only win the tourney about half the time.

I think we are understating our potential to win these early games...at least I hope we are.

Was just going to say this fairfax. Here's the numbers for National Championship pct:

orangenauburn = 2.36%
pfister = 5.75%
rstone = 3.75%
90% Chance of winning each game = 53.14%

 

[fairfaxcuse]

Was just going to say this fairfax. Here's the numbers for National Championship pct:

orangenauburn = 2.36%
pfister = 5.75%
rstone = 3.75%
90% Chance of winning each game = 53.14%

Exactly correct on those odds. The statisticians ruin all the fun Most books I see have SU at anywhere from a 6 to 1 or 7 to 1 to win the tourney. Kentucky is 2 to 1. The sports books love future betting, especially when there isn't a dominating favorite

 

[HoustonCuse]

Fairfax - I once visited Las Vegas and thought I was Mr. Smart with my statistical approach to the Roulette Wheel. I got bankrupted on 13 blacks in a row.

Odds of that happening are: 0.00605%

Sons of beeches. My wife didn't accept the mathematical strength of my position.

 

[fairfaxcuse]

Fairfax - I once visited Las Vegas and thought I was Mr. Smart with my statistical approach to the Roulette Wheel. I got bankrupted on 13 blacks in a row.

Odds of that happening are: 0.00605%

Sons of beeches. My wife didn't accept the mathematical strength of my position.

lol- i tried the roulette approach as well, but quit after a string of 6 straight losses. i'm going back for march madness.

 

[donniesyracuse]

I don't know why anyone plays roulette. I do love watching the hillbillies at the tables who are convinced that after six reds in a row, the odds are somehow better that the next will be black.

 

[KingOtis]

K-State is interesting because they can have a lot of success on the offensive glass. They beat Mizzou twice by slowing down the transition game and out-muscling the Tigers. Could feel like a Big East game. Frank Martin is a Bob Huggins disciple after all.

Vanderbilt and Wisconsin haven't had a lot of recent success in the tournament, Vanderbilt in particular. Bo Ryan has only made it past the Sweet 16 once and that was after playing three double-digit seeded teams. If you had to pick one region where the bracket gets busted and the #12 and #13 advance, wouldn't it be this one? Still, I think we face the Badgers, which will be another game with a Big East feel.

Ohio State should get through, with their toughest game coming against West Virginia in a hostile environment. I liked our chances against them last year, and still like our chances this year.

Count me among those who would rather see North Carolina than Kansas. I guess it would be Kentucky or Mizzou after that.

Either we make the Final Four or lose to K-State in the second round. Doesn't feel like there's an in-between.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I don't know why anyone plays roulette. I do love watching the hillbillies at the tables who are convinced that after six reds in a row, the odds are somehow better that the next will be black.

They are.

 

[donniesyracuse]

They are.

You're joking, right?

 

[HoustonCuse]

You're joking, right?

Each event has a probability which does not change, but a sequence of those events has a probability that is comprised of the individual probabilities. You have a 50/50 chance of flipping a coin and getting heads. You do not have a 50/50 chance of doing it twice.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Each event has a probability which does not change, but a sequence of those events has a probability that is comprised of the individual probabilities. You have a 50/50 chance of flipping a coin and getting heads. You do not have a 50/50 chance of doing it twice.

Of course not, but after you get heads on the first flip, your chance of the second one being heads are 50/50.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Of course not, but after you get heads on the first flip, your chance of the second one being heads are 50/50.

Absolutely, but we are talking about a problem defined as multiple trials with replacement.

 

[donniesyracuse]

I was talking about the roulette table. If red came up six times in a row, the chance of red coming up on the next turn are the same as on any other turn. There is no advantage to betting red or black, what occurred in previous turns has no bearing on the current turn.

 

[djcon57]

I was talking about the roulette table. If red came up six times in a row, the chance of red coming up on the next turn are the same as on any other turn. There is no advantage to betting red or black, what occurred in previous turns has no bearing on the current turn.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I was talking about the roulette table. If red came up six times in a row, the chance of red coming up on the next turn are the same as on any other turn. There is no advantage to betting red or black, what occurred in previous turns has no bearing on the current turn.

LOL, yes I know, but a series of rolls does have that different probability. I totally agree with you, the odds of red is something like 0.47. But I also contend that if you look at a series of 5 rolls, there is only a 2.30% chance of getting red on all of them. So you can still "play the percentages" by betting black (or vice versa) every single time.

 

[donniesyracuse]

LOL, yes I know, but a series of rolls does have that different probability. I totally agree with you, the odds of red is something like 0.47. But I also contend that if you look at a series of 5 rolls, there is only a 2.30% chance of getting red on all of them. So you can still "play the percentages" by betting black (or vice versa) every single time.

It doesn't matter if you bet red every single time or black every single time, or change it up, you have about 47% chance of being right each time. There is no advantage to playing black or red in any circumstance. Playing red five turns in a row will have the same probability for success as playing red-black-red-red-black. The odds never change on any turn, which was my original point. I'm still not sure why you disagreed with me and suggested that the hillbillies were better off betting black after six straight reds.

 

[HoustonCuse]

It doesn't matter if you bet red every single time or black every single time, or change it up, you have about 47% chance of being right each time. There is no advantage to playing black or red in any circumstance. Playing red five turns in a row will have the same probability for success as playing red-black-red-red-black. The odds never change on any turn, which was my original point. I'm still not sure why you disagreed with me and suggested that the hillbillies were better off betting black after six straight reds.

I know what you are saying. I think it is just hard to discuss the points with text only.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Your initial response was just inaccurate. You must have thought I meant something else.