My S-Curve 1/20/14 | Syracusefan.com

My S-Curve 1/20/14

Alsacs

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If you don't care about bracketology you can skip the rest of this thread.

Top 20
1. Arizona
2. Syracuse
3. Michigan State
4. Villanova
5. San Diego State
6. Kansas
7. Florida
8. Wichita State
9. Iowa
10. Wisconsin
11. Iowa State
12. Kentucky
13. Oklahoma State
14. Michigan
15. UMass
16. Cincinnati
17. Duke
18. Pitt
19. St. Louis
20. Memphis

next 5 considered: Ohio State, Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma, UConn

West-Anaheim
1. Arizona
2. San Diego State
3. Wisconsin
4. UMass
5. Memphis

East- New York
1. Syracuse
2. Florida
3. Iowa State
4. Michigan
5. St. Louis

Midwest-Indianapolis
1. Michigan State
2. Wichita State
3. Kentucky
4. Oklahoma State
5. Duke

South-Memphis
1. Villanova
2. Kansas
3. Iowa
4. Cincinnati
5. Pittsburgh


I think the 4th 1 seed will come from Villanova, Florida, Kansas for the South region. If Wichita runs the table they will be in contention as well, but I don't see them capable of a top 4 resume like Gonzaga last year. Gonzaga played a tough OOC schedule last year, and had BYU and St. Mary's both bubble teams or tournament teams in their conference.
 

RF2044

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Jesus--sign me up for that bracket!

I'd love our chances with UF and ISU as the #2/#3 seeds! I've seen both play multiple times this season, and like how we'd match up.
 

Alsacs

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All my analyzing spits out to me that no matter what happens IMO the toughest region is going to be the Midwest if the committee sticks to geography rather than seeding teams 1-68. East/South will have tough brackets, but the West is likely to have Arizona as the 1 and San Diego State in the 2/3 area and whomever is last for geographic preference for the last 2. I would say one of Oklahoma State/Iowa may end up in the West because they are in the middle of the country and not as far as some Eastern teams unless their is no choice.
 

TBCuse11

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couple things that i jus cant agree with in any way... Duke being lower than a 3 seed and Ohio State not being in the top 20.
Both are locks to happen.

Good read though overall.
 

Alsacs

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couple things that i jus cant agree with in any way... Duke being lower than a 3 seed and Ohio State not being in the top 20.
Both are locks to happen.

Good read though overall.
Duke doesn't have a top 12 resume right now. They 0 zero wins on another team's home court, but their win over Michigan is getting more and more valuable. I think Duke could move their way up along with Pitt, but right now their resumes aren't top 16 for me. Also, Ohio State honestly doesn't belong in the top 20. Their best wins are against a bubble Marquette on the road, neutral floor win over Notre Dame, home win over Maryland, conference wins against Nebraska, @Purdue. They aren't a top 4 B1G team IMO. Right now honestly I only put them under consideration because of their recent success they look like a 8-9 seed when all is said and done. Ohio State is a top 5 defensive team in the nation, but their offense is really weak.
 

jncuse

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All my analyzing spits out to me that no matter what happens IMO the toughest region is going to be the Midwest if the committee sticks to geography rather than seeding teams 1-68. East/South will have tough brackets, but the West is likely to have Arizona as the 1 and San Diego State in the 2/3 area and whomever is last for geographic preference for the last 2. I would say one of Oklahoma State/Iowa may end up in the West because they are in the middle of the country and not as far as some Eastern teams unless their is no choice.

Good work Alsacs. Can't dispute the current rankings - they look sound,

My only comment is with regards to your post above and SD St. I'm not sure San Diego St has any shot at a 2, and they will track downward from the #5 spot on your curve that they have earned to date. I think they are a 3/4. Either way they are going to go out West as you seed. The MWC is way down from what it was the past few years, and their SOS is projected at 98 (basically the same as Wichita St). Not much chance for quality wins, (only 4 top 50 wins potential).

But its not as strong a resume as New Mexico who only got a 3 seed last year, unless they really value that at Kansas win (which they might)
 

Cusefan0307

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Nova on the one line. I could see that. The win against Kansas is going to look better and better.
 

Alsacs

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Good work Alsacs. Can't dispute the current rankings - they look sound,

My only comment is with regards to your post above and SD St. I'm not sure San Diego St has any shot at a 2, and they will track downward from the #5 spot on your curve that they have earned to date. I think they are a 3/4. Either way they are going to go out West as you seed. The MWC is way down from what it was the past few years, and their SOS is projected at 98 (basically the same as Wichita St). Not much chance for quality wins, (only 4 top 50 wins potential).

But its not as strong a resume as New Mexico who only got a 3 seed last year, unless they really value that at Kansas win (which they might)
San Diego State has been playing at a major level these past 5 years, and won the 76 Classic in Anaheim, and won @Kansas on CBS. I don't think they should be a 2 seed, but they have earned it IMO as of today as there only loss was a single digit lose to #1 Arizona. While the MWC is down I still think New Mexico and Boise State are NCAA teams, and Utah State and UNLV are typically solid. I think the MWC is WAY tougher than the MVC.
 

Alsacs

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Joe Lunardi on ESPN bracket math has it

1. Arizona
2. Syracuse
3. Michigan State
4. Villanova
5. Wichita State
6. Florida
7. Kansas
8. Wisconsin
9. Kentucky
10. Oklahoma State
11. San Diego State
12. Iowa
13. Iowa State
14. UMass
15. Ohio State
16. Duke
17. Cincinnati
18. Pittsburgh
19. Louisville
20. Creighton

Lunardi is nuts for high he has Ohio State and Duke. I can't believe ESPN trots him out to be an expert when he can't even look at the actual resumes and ranks some of these teams where he does. Jerry Palm is so much better that its a joke.
 

TBCuse11

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Joe Lunardi on ESPN bracket math has it

1. Arizona
2. Syracuse
3. Michigan State
4. Villanova
5. Wichita State
6. Florida
7. Kansas
8. Wisconsin
9. Kentucky
10. Oklahoma State
11. San Diego State
12. Iowa
13. Iowa State
14. UMass
15. Ohio State
16. Duke
17. Cincinnati
18. Pittsburgh
19. Louisville
20. Creighton

Lunardi is nuts for high he has Ohio State and Duke. I can't believe ESPN trots him out to be an expert when he can't even look at the actual resumes and ranks some of these teams where he does. Jerry Palm is so much better that its a joke.

You guys are WAY under valuing ohio state. they will in no way be lower than a 3 or 4 seed come March. Not sure how that can even be argued against.
 

jncuse

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You guys are WAY under valuing ohio state. they will in no way be lower than a 3 or 4 seed come March. Not sure how that can even be argued against.

You need to realize this is an "As of Now" analysis

Where Ohio St will end up is irrelevant. What have they done to earn a 3 or 4 seed based on what they have done so far? Alsacs has them ranked appropriately for is approach.

Now Ohio St will have many chances to improve their resume (or after tonight actually make it worse!!). I would of said a 3/4 may be possible before tonight's game. I use a bit of a hybrid approach to where teams may be seed using rpiforecast projection data, and scanning it I think Ohio St was tracking for a 4.
 

OrangeYaGladi

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I would love for another chance to play Michigan in the postseason. That loss last year stills chaps my ass.
Genuine ass chappage, I concur.
 

Alsacs

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You guys are WAY under valuing ohio state. they will in no way be lower than a 3 or 4 seed come March. Not sure how that can even be argued against.
I am not under valuing anybody I am looking at the individual teams resumes and ranking them by whom they have played and whom they have beat. Ohio State is in for a world of hurt. Their best non-conference wins are against Maryland, Notre Dame, @Marquette and none of those teams are better than 50% to make the tournament. They beat Purdue and Nebraska in conference play and have lost to Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska. Ohio State IMO is more likely to end up out of the tournament completely rather than end up as a top 4 seed. Their offense is atrocious and if any team can zone them it will make it hard to win unless Ross goes off.
 

TBCuse11

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I am not under valuing anybody I am looking at the individual teams resumes and ranking them by whom they have played and whom they have beat. Ohio State is in for a world of hurt. Their best non-conference wins are against Maryland, Notre Dame, @Marquette and none of those teams are better than 50% to make the tournament. They beat Purdue and Nebraska in conference play and have lost to Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska. Ohio State IMO is more likely to end up out of the tournament completely rather than end up as a top 4 seed. Their offense is atrocious and if any team can zone them it will make it hard to win unless Ross goes off.

I guess we will agree to disagree and let time show us the truth.
My firm stance: no worse than the 4/5 seed range.
 

Alsacs

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I guess we will agree to disagree and let time show us the truth.
My firm stance: no worse than the 4/5 seed range.
Just for the heck of it what do you see on their resume that you believe warrants a 4/5 seed? Honestly I would rank them their if they deserved it. Ohio State doesn't have a single win against any team in Jerry Palm's Bracketology Palm has them as an 8 seed as of now. Which is honestly where they should be based on their resume.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
 

TBCuse11

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Just for the heck of it what do you see on their resume that you believe warrants a 4/5 seed? Honestly I would rank them their if they deserved it. Ohio State doesn't have a single win against any team in Jerry Palm's Bracketology Palm has them as an 8 seed as of now. Which is honestly where they should be based on their resume.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

It doesnt always matter who you beat. Wichita State is not going to beat anyone this year... and they are going to be a 2 seed.
Ohio State will get wins along the way. They will be in the 4/5 range. I could be wrong, we shall see.

I know yo said "as of now" so we shall see. Lots of people had Nova creeping on our 1 seed, but after last night they have ZERO chance for a 1. that loss will stick in the minds of people all season.
 

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