NBA Net Points - after March | Syracusefan.com

NBA Net Points - after March

SWC75

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For the last several years I’ve been making monthly posts for baseball keeping track of who is leading each league in base production, (total batting bases +walks + steals) and run production, (runs scored + runs batted in minus home runs so they don’t get counted twice). I’ve also used those stats for my series on the history of the sport to identify the most historically productive players. I’m going to be starting a similar series for basketball soon and I thought I’d start doing monthly NBA posts using my “net points” formula: points + rebounds +assists + steals + blocks – missed field goals –missed free throws – turnovers – fouls. Since we don’t have two leagues, I’ll keep track of the top 25 players. I’ve also decided to break out the players averages per 48 minutes of play, (the length of an NBA game).

Players don’t actually average 48 minutes per game, (BasketballReference.com keeps track of averages per 36 minutes as that’s closer to what a star player will average). But they could play that much in a tight game. These numbers represent what they are capable of doing when their team really needs them to produce. The players are ranked based on total net points. The averages are just a breakdown of their individual skills. I do show the NP per 40 minutes at the end of each line but I’ll ranked them based on the total NP because that’s not a projection based on a rate of production..

Here is a breakdown of what I’ve typed in each case with LeBron James in November as an example: LeBron played 15 games and 539 minutes in those games, an average of 35.9 minutes per game (m). He scored 353 points (p), grabbed 121 rebounds (r ), passed for 140 assists (a), stole 16 balls (s) and blocked 7 shots (b). He attempted 257 field goals and made 128, so he missed 129 (mfg). He attempted 100 free throws and made 72, missing 28 (mft). He had 58 turnovers (to) and 25 personal fouls (pf). I add the positives and subtract the negatives to get 397 net points. I divide 48 by the 539 minutes and multiply each stat by the result. I come up with this:
LeBron James CLE 35.9m 31.4p 10.8r 12.5a 1.4s 0.6b 11.5mfg 2.5mft 5.2to 2.2pf 397NP (35.5)


AFTER MARCH

Russell Westbrook OKC 34.8m 43.8p 14.6r 14.4a 2.3s 0.5b 19.1mfg 2.3mft 7.5to 3.2pf 2365NP (43.5)
James Harden HOU……. 36.5m 38.3p 10.6r 14.7a 2.0s 0.6b 14.0mfg 2.1mft 7.6to 3.4pf 2258NP (39.1)
Anthony Davis NO……… 36.2m 36.9p 15.9r 2.9a 1.7s 3.0b 13.2mfg 2.3mft 3.3to 3.0pf 2093NP (38.6)
LeBron James CLE………..37.4m 33.5p 10.8r 11.2a 1.6s 0.7b 10.6mfg 3.0mft 5.3to 2.2pf 1975NP (36.8)
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 37.0m 33.1p 15.7r 3.5a 0.7s 1.2b 10.9mfg 1.2mft 3.4to 3.8pf 1974NP (34.6)

G. Antetokounmopo MIL 35.6m 31.2p 11.6r 7.2a 2.2s 2.6b 10.2mfg 2.3mft 3.8to 4.3pf 1900NP (34.2)
John Wall WAS……………. 30.7m 30.6p 5.6r 14.0a 2.7s 0.8b 13.4mfg 1.7mft 5.4to 2.5pf 1728NP (36.6)
DeMarcus Cousins SAC.. 34.1m 37.9p 15.4r 6.4a 2.0s 1.9b 15.4mfg 3.1mft 5.2to 2.5pf 1719NP (34.6)
Kevin Durant GS….…….. 33.6m 36.2p 11.8r 6.9a 1.6s 2.4b 11.0mfg 1.1mft 3.2to 2.7pf 1678NP (40.7)
Steph Curry GS……………. 32.1m 35.8p 6.5r 9.4a 2.6s 0.3b 8.5mfg 0.6mft 4.4to 3.4pf 1660NP (32.1)

Jimmy Butler CHI.…………36.9m 30.6p 8.1r 7.1a 2.5s 0.5b 11.6mfg 1.6mft 2.7to 1.9pf 1641NP (30.9)
Kawhi Leonard SA...……. 33.8m 36.7p 8.4r 5.0a 2.6s 1.0b 13.2mfg 1.3mft 3.0to 2.3pf 1630NP (34.0)
Rudy Gobert UTAH……… 34.0m 19.6p 18.2r 1.7a 0.9s 3.7b 3.6mfg 3.0mft 2.6to 4.3pf 1621NP (30.5)
DeAndre Jordan LAC…… 31.6m 19.1p 20.7r 1.8a 0.9s 2.6b 3.1mfg 4.0mft 2.6to 4.0pf 1589NP (31.8)
Isaiah Thomas BOS……… 34.2m 41.1p 3.7r 8.3a 1.3s 0.2b 14.8mfg 1.1mft 3.8to 3.2pf 1581NP (29.8)

Hassan Whiteside MIA… 32.6m 24.7p 20.7r 1.0a 1.1s 3.1b 8.1mfg 2.5mft 3.0to 4.3pf 1578NP (32.6)
Damian Lillard POR……… 35.8m 35.8p 6.5r 7.8a 1.2s 0.4b 14.5mfg 1.0mft 3.6to 2.7pf 1561NP (29.9)
DeMar DeRozen TOR…… 35.5m 37.1p 7.3r 5.2a 1.4s 0.2b 15.2mfg 1.9mft 3.2to 2.5pf 1454NP (28.5)
Kemba Walker CHA……… 34.7m 31.8p 5.5r 7.6a 1.4s 0.4b 14.1mfg 0.9mft 3.0to 2.1pf 1450NP (26.8)
Andre Drummond DET… 30.0m 22.3p 22.3r 1.7a 2.5s 1.8b 8.5mfg 4.3mft 3.1to 4.7pf 1431NP (30.0)

Eric Bledsoe PHO…………. 33.0m 30.7p 7.1r 9.2a 2.0s 0.7b 12.9mfg 1.5mft 4.9to 3.6pf 1390NP (30.7)
Kyrie Irving CLE……………. 34.9m 35.3p 4.5r 8.0a 1.6s 0.5b 14.6mfg 0.6mft 3.6to 3.0pf 1343NP (28.1)
Dwight Howard ATL……..30.0m 21.6p 20.7r 2.3a 1.5s 2.0b 4.9mfg 4.4mft 3.6to 4.5pf 1323NP (30.7)
Marc Gasol MEM………… 34.6m 27.6p 8.7r 6.3a 1.7s 1.8b 11.9mfg 1.0mft 3.1to 3.2pf 1308NP (26.3)
Gordon Hayward UTA…. 34.6m 30.2p 7.7r 4.8a 1.4s 0.4b 11.7mfg 1.3mft 2.7to 2.2pf 1306NP (26.6)

FYI:
Carmelo Anthony NY…… 34.5m 31.3p 8.2r 4.0a 1.2s 0.6b 14.7mfg 1.1Mft 2.9to 3.7pf 1169NP (22.9)

Comments: I don’t see how Westbrook can be denied the MVP, even if Harden’s team has a better record. The Thunder, without Durant is still 45-33 so that’s not really a black mark on Westbrook’s record. Westbrook misses more shots than anyone and both eh and Harden have a tremendous amount of turnovers but both overwhelm those deficits with unmatched production.
 
For the last several years I’ve been making monthly posts for baseball keeping track of who is leading each league in base production, (total batting bases +walks + steals) and run production, (runs scored + runs batted in minus home runs so they don’t get counted twice). I’ve also used those stats for my series on the history of the sport to identify the most historically productive players. I’m going to be starting a similar series for basketball soon and I thought I’d start doing monthly NBA posts using my “net points” formula: points + rebounds +assists + steals + blocks – missed field goals –missed free throws – turnovers – fouls. Since we don’t have two leagues, I’ll keep track of the top 25 players. I’ve also decided to break out the players averages per 48 minutes of play, (the length of an NBA game).

Players don’t actually average 48 minutes per game, (BasketballReference.com keeps track of averages per 36 minutes as that’s closer to what a star player will average). But they could play that much in a tight game. These numbers represent what they are capable of doing when their team really needs them to produce. The players are ranked based on total net points. The averages are just a breakdown of their individual skills. I do show the NP per 40 minutes at the end of each line but I’ll ranked them based on the total NP because that’s not a projection based on a rate of production..

Here is a breakdown of what I’ve typed in each case with LeBron James in November as an example: LeBron played 15 games and 539 minutes in those games, an average of 35.9 minutes per game (m). He scored 353 points (p), grabbed 121 rebounds (r ), passed for 140 assists (a), stole 16 balls (s) and blocked 7 shots (b). He attempted 257 field goals and made 128, so he missed 129 (mfg). He attempted 100 free throws and made 72, missing 28 (mft). He had 58 turnovers (to) and 25 personal fouls (pf). I add the positives and subtract the negatives to get 397 net points. I divide 48 by the 539 minutes and multiply each stat by the result. I come up with this:
LeBron James CLE 35.9m 31.4p 10.8r 12.5a 1.4s 0.6b 11.5mfg 2.5mft 5.2to 2.2pf 397NP (35.5)


AFTER MARCH

Russell Westbrook OKC 34.8m 43.8p 14.6r 14.4a 2.3s 0.5b 19.1mfg 2.3mft 7.5to 3.2pf 2365NP (43.5)
James Harden HOU……. 36.5m 38.3p 10.6r 14.7a 2.0s 0.6b 14.0mfg 2.1mft 7.6to 3.4pf 2258NP (39.1)
Anthony Davis NO……… 36.2m 36.9p 15.9r 2.9a 1.7s 3.0b 13.2mfg 2.3mft 3.3to 3.0pf 2093NP (38.6)
LeBron James CLE………..37.4m 33.5p 10.8r 11.2a 1.6s 0.7b 10.6mfg 3.0mft 5.3to 2.2pf 1975NP (36.8)
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 37.0m 33.1p 15.7r 3.5a 0.7s 1.2b 10.9mfg 1.2mft 3.4to 3.8pf 1974NP (34.6)

G. Antetokounmopo MIL 35.6m 31.2p 11.6r 7.2a 2.2s 2.6b 10.2mfg 2.3mft 3.8to 4.3pf 1900NP (34.2)
John Wall WAS……………. 30.7m 30.6p 5.6r 14.0a 2.7s 0.8b 13.4mfg 1.7mft 5.4to 2.5pf 1728NP (36.6)
DeMarcus Cousins SAC.. 34.1m 37.9p 15.4r 6.4a 2.0s 1.9b 15.4mfg 3.1mft 5.2to 2.5pf 1719NP (34.6)
Kevin Durant GS….…….. 33.6m 36.2p 11.8r 6.9a 1.6s 2.4b 11.0mfg 1.1mft 3.2to 2.7pf 1678NP (40.7)
Steph Curry GS……………. 32.1m 35.8p 6.5r 9.4a 2.6s 0.3b 8.5mfg 0.6mft 4.4to 3.4pf 1660NP (32.1)

Jimmy Butler CHI.…………36.9m 30.6p 8.1r 7.1a 2.5s 0.5b 11.6mfg 1.6mft 2.7to 1.9pf 1641NP (30.9)
Kawhi Leonard SA...……. 33.8m 36.7p 8.4r 5.0a 2.6s 1.0b 13.2mfg 1.3mft 3.0to 2.3pf 1630NP (34.0)
Rudy Gobert UTAH……… 34.0m 19.6p 18.2r 1.7a 0.9s 3.7b 3.6mfg 3.0mft 2.6to 4.3pf 1621NP (30.5)
DeAndre Jordan LAC…… 31.6m 19.1p 20.7r 1.8a 0.9s 2.6b 3.1mfg 4.0mft 2.6to 4.0pf 1589NP (31.8)
Isaiah Thomas BOS……… 34.2m 41.1p 3.7r 8.3a 1.3s 0.2b 14.8mfg 1.1mft 3.8to 3.2pf 1581NP (29.8)

Hassan Whiteside MIA… 32.6m 24.7p 20.7r 1.0a 1.1s 3.1b 8.1mfg 2.5mft 3.0to 4.3pf 1578NP (32.6)
Damian Lillard POR……… 35.8m 35.8p 6.5r 7.8a 1.2s 0.4b 14.5mfg 1.0mft 3.6to 2.7pf 1561NP (29.9)
DeMar DeRozen TOR…… 35.5m 37.1p 7.3r 5.2a 1.4s 0.2b 15.2mfg 1.9mft 3.2to 2.5pf 1454NP (28.5)
Kemba Walker CHA……… 34.7m 31.8p 5.5r 7.6a 1.4s 0.4b 14.1mfg 0.9mft 3.0to 2.1pf 1450NP (26.8)
Andre Drummond DET… 30.0m 22.3p 22.3r 1.7a 2.5s 1.8b 8.5mfg 4.3mft 3.1to 4.7pf 1431NP (30.0)

Eric Bledsoe PHO…………. 33.0m 30.7p 7.1r 9.2a 2.0s 0.7b 12.9mfg 1.5mft 4.9to 3.6pf 1390NP (30.7)
Kyrie Irving CLE……………. 34.9m 35.3p 4.5r 8.0a 1.6s 0.5b 14.6mfg 0.6mft 3.6to 3.0pf 1343NP (28.1)
Dwight Howard ATL……..30.0m 21.6p 20.7r 2.3a 1.5s 2.0b 4.9mfg 4.4mft 3.6to 4.5pf 1323NP (30.7)
Marc Gasol MEM………… 34.6m 27.6p 8.7r 6.3a 1.7s 1.8b 11.9mfg 1.0mft 3.1to 3.2pf 1308NP (26.3)
Gordon Hayward UTA…. 34.6m 30.2p 7.7r 4.8a 1.4s 0.4b 11.7mfg 1.3mft 2.7to 2.2pf 1306NP (26.6)

FYI:
Carmelo Anthony NY…… 34.5m 31.3p 8.2r 4.0a 1.2s 0.6b 14.7mfg 1.1Mft 2.9to 3.7pf 1169NP (22.9)

Comments: I don’t see how Westbrook can be denied the MVP, even if Harden’s team has a better record. The Thunder, without Durant is still 45-33 so that’s not really a black mark on Westbrook’s record. Westbrook misses more shots than anyone and both eh and Harden have a tremendous amount of turnovers but both overwhelm those deficits with unmatched production.

My vote would be and counter arguments.

1) LeBron. He's having, arguably, the second best season of his career with highs in boards and assists. He can guard 1-4. He can run the offense, play off the ball, everything. He's the reason a shoot-first PG like Kyrie can work. They are going to get the one seed in the east.

2) Kawhi. Offensive stats aren't as impressive as others, but efficient scorer. Only all star on his team this year. Defense is half the game. Can guard 1-4. Can get to the line. Team won over sixty games, again, with one all star this year, in the west.

3) Steph Curry. Over 300 three pointers. Second most ever for a single season. Changed his game to adopt for KD then changed it back. Spreads the floor unlike anyone else in the league so there is way more space for his team. Team will win 65+ games in the west.

4) James Harden. Engine that makes Houston go. Three seed in the west. Made effort on defense to be passable. Stats are there. FT machine.

5) Westbrook. Heaviest load for any MVP candidates. Gets boards in traffic but also pads stats. Ok at defense but should be much better. Argument against is that Adams/Kanter haven't improved with Russ' stats going up. Six seed in west.

I think Westbrook will win the award, but I don't think he should. First, basically all discussions about the MVP have omitted defense. Second, LeBron is experiencing the same thing MJ had happen, fatigue for the voters. LeBron makes everyone better that plays with him. His stats are fantastic. He can elevate his defense when needed. We're watching one of the three best players of all time, arguably, and going to have him finish fourth in MVP voting this year, during one of his best years ever because people care about three stats: PPG, APG, RPG.

The Cavs, Spurs and Warriors aren't trading any of their guys I listed for either Harden or Westbrook.

Just my two cents. Fun argument though.
 
My vote would be and counter arguments.

1) LeBron. He's having, arguably, the second best season of his career with highs in boards and assists. He can guard 1-4. He can run the offense, play off the ball, everything. He's the reason a shoot-first PG like Kyrie can work. They are going to get the one seed in the east.

2) Kawhi. Offensive stats aren't as impressive as others, but efficient scorer. Only all star on his team this year. Defense is half the game. Can guard 1-4. Can get to the line. Team won over sixty games, again, with one all star this year, in the west.

3) Steph Curry. Over 300 three pointers. Second most ever for a single season. Changed his game to adopt for KD then changed it back. Spreads the floor unlike anyone else in the league so there is way more space for his team. Team will win 65+ games in the west.

4) James Harden. Engine that makes Houston go. Three seed in the west. Made effort on defense to be passable. Stats are there. FT machine.

5) Westbrook. Heaviest load for any MVP candidates. Gets boards in traffic but also pads stats. Ok at defense but should be much better. Argument against is that Adams/Kanter haven't improved with Russ' stats going up. Six seed in west.

I think Westbrook will win the award, but I don't think he should. First, basically all discussions about the MVP have omitted defense. Second, LeBron is experiencing the same thing MJ had happen, fatigue for the voters. LeBron makes everyone better that plays with him. His stats are fantastic. He can elevate his defense when needed. We're watching one of the three best players of all time, arguably, and going to have him finish fourth in MVP voting this year, during one of his best years ever because people care about three stats: PPG, APG, RPG.

The Cavs, Spurs and Warriors aren't trading any of their guys I listed for either Harden or Westbrook.

Just my two cents. Fun argument though.

Lebron really hasn't been playing great defense though. I'm sure he'll turn it on in the playoffs, but his defense is certainly not a positive for him this season in an MVP argument.
 
My vote would be and counter arguments.

1) LeBron. He's having, arguably, the second best season of his career with highs in boards and assists. He can guard 1-4. He can run the offense, play off the ball, everything. He's the reason a shoot-first PG like Kyrie can work. They are going to get the one seed in the east.

2) Kawhi. Offensive stats aren't as impressive as others, but efficient scorer. Only all star on his team this year. Defense is half the game. Can guard 1-4. Can get to the line. Team won over sixty games, again, with one all star this year, in the west.

3) Steph Curry. Over 300 three pointers. Second most ever for a single season. Changed his game to adopt for KD then changed it back. Spreads the floor unlike anyone else in the league so there is way more space for his team. Team will win 65+ games in the west.

4) James Harden. Engine that makes Houston go. Three seed in the west. Made effort on defense to be passable. Stats are there. FT machine.

5) Westbrook. Heaviest load for any MVP candidates. Gets boards in traffic but also pads stats. Ok at defense but should be much better. Argument against is that Adams/Kanter haven't improved with Russ' stats going up. Six seed in west.

I think Westbrook will win the award, but I don't think he should. First, basically all discussions about the MVP have omitted defense. Second, LeBron is experiencing the same thing MJ had happen, fatigue for the voters. LeBron makes everyone better that plays with him. His stats are fantastic. He can elevate his defense when needed. We're watching one of the three best players of all time, arguably, and going to have him finish fourth in MVP voting this year, during one of his best years ever because people care about three stats: PPG, APG, RPG.

The Cavs, Spurs and Warriors aren't trading any of their guys I listed for either Harden or Westbrook.

Just my two cents. Fun argument though.


You are correct that defense should be considered in an MVP argument but it generally isn't since stats in all sports are more geared to offense. Maybe that will change with the greater emphasis on advanced metrics. Then there's the perennial debate about the word "valuable": is a one man show more valuable than a key guy on a potential championship team?
 
You are correct that defense should be considered in an MVP argument but it generally isn't since stats in all sports are more geared to offense. Maybe that will change with the greater emphasis on advanced metrics. Then there's the perennial debate about the word "valuable": is a one man show more valuable than a key guy on a potential championship team?

Great question. My baseline is who would be traded for whom? Layer in productivity, wins, making teammates better.

Also, I don't want to make it seem like I don't like Russ. I love watching him. I just don't think he's the MVP. Can't wait to see him in the playoffs, especially if he loses out on the MVP to Harden.
 

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