NCAA Selection: Syracuse at the edge of the cliff!

Larry

Walk On
Joined
Feb 20, 2018
Messages
17
Like
6
It may come down to Syracuse and Towson. This is why: Based on RPI, SOS and Quality Wins, they are behind the following: Duke, Penn State, Virginia, Penn, Yale, Hopkins, Loyola, Cornell, Notre Dame, Maryland and Towson. Two or three of these teams get AQ's. Now if Towson defeats Drexel, they get the AQ and Syracuse is eight and last in line to get the At-large. If Towson loses then they fall slightly behind Syracuse in numerics but since they are neck and neck, the NCAA could invite Towson over Syracuse.

If the committee pulls off a surprise, it would be to drop Cornell, Notre Dame, Maryland or Hopkins. Unlikely but Cornell losing to Syracuse would probably be the argument.

Syracuse has an RPI, SOS and QW ranking of 9, 11 and 10. Go to
Lacrosse Stats|Lacrosse CollegeRankings|NCAA Lacrosse Championship Tournament or
laxinteractive.com (what if?) to see how close they are with others.

If the MD1criteria means anything, Syracuse (should they get in) has NO chance for a home field first round game.
 

JeremyCuse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
20,663
Like
17,852
Also that laxbytes site is insane, that ranking metric that has SU at 26 or something like that is laughable
 

OrangeXtreme

The Mayor of Dewitt
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
104,219
Like
131,053
The people who do this for a living have Syracuse solidly in, Cornell on the bubble, and Maryland out.
 

OrangeXtreme

The Mayor of Dewitt
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
104,219
Like
131,053
Also that laxbytes site is insane, that ranking metric that has SU at 26 or something like that is laughable
They have Denver and Army taking up At-large slots.

I'll trust Anish before I worry about what these guys make up.
 

JeremyCuse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
20,663
Like
17,852
The people who do this for a living have Syracuse solidly in, Cornell on the bubble, and Maryland out.
I mean look anything is possible as teams get screwed by the committee (see the bball team), but I find it hard to see how SU gets left out but Maryland and Cornell gets in. SUs numbers are better then both and SU blew out Cornell
 

Delmar

All Conference
Joined
Nov 12, 2013
Messages
2,800
Like
5,610
Towson up on Drexel by 6 at halftime: 13-7. Doomsday scenario is fading.
 

Zack80

Scout Team
Joined
Sep 21, 2011
Messages
251
Like
110
I haven't seen one bracket that has SU out and SU is ahead of Maryland and Cornell in RPI and Top 20 wins. I think your off base here.
Maryland just picked up a 5th top 20 win with Richmond moving up to #19.

I think Syracuse will probably make it, but it depends on how much the selection committee focuses on the losses.
My own belief is that Hopkins will be the odd team out, if they lose tonight. 3 top 20 wins (none in the top 10) with 7 losses.
That being said, PSU's record is so good 13-1, that I wonder if Hopkins' RPI might climb even if they lose and at the moment #7 Notre Dame is losing to UVa - so Hopkin's RPI could be like #7.
 

Larry

Walk On
Joined
Feb 20, 2018
Messages
17
Like
6
They have Denver and Army taking up At-large slots.

I'll trust Anish before I worry about what these guys make up.
I suggest all

(1) read the NCAA Selection Criteria
(2) try to read and comprehend correctly what the page accurately says

The Criteria is based on RPI, SOS and Quality Wins and Losses. For example, Cornell is ahead of Syracuse because their rankings are: 12, 1 and 8 whereas Syracuse is 10, 9 and 12. That means Syracuse has a better RPI but Cornell has a tougher schedule and better quality wins. All three count. The committee does not have head-to-head as a primary criteria.

At present this is the probable order of at-large assuming Yale and Penn State get the AQ

(1) Duke
(2) Virginia
(3) Loyola
(4) Penn
(5) Cornell
(6) Notre Dame
(7) Maryland
(8) Hopkins
(9) Syracuse

Only 8 get in so to guess which ones the Committee will select, you need to examine the RPI, SOS and QW rankings. If two teams are very close for the last at-large selection, the committee examines secondary criteria.
.
 

wvlax

Scout Team
Joined
Apr 23, 2012
Messages
493
Like
184
I got Syracuse getting in over Maryland but tomorrow will be interesting.
 

JeremyCuse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
20,663
Like
17,852
I suggest all

(1) read the NCAA Selection Criteria
(2) try to read and comprehend correctly what the page accurately says

The Criteria is based on RPI, SOS and Quality Wins and Losses. For example, Cornell is ahead of Syracuse because their rankings are: 12, 1 and 8 whereas Syracuse is 10, 9 and 12. That means Syracuse has a better RPI but Cornell has a tougher schedule and better quality wins. All three count. The committee does not have head-to-head as a primary criteria.

At present this is the probable order of at-large assuming Yale and Penn State get the AQ

(1) Duke
(2) Virginia
(3) Loyola
(4) Penn
(5) Cornell
(6) Notre Dame
(7) Maryland
(8) Hopkins
(9) Syracuse

Only 8 get in so to guess which ones the Committee will select, you need to examine the RPI, SOS and QW rankings. If two teams are very close for the last at-large selection, the committee examines secondary criteria.
.
Look at the wins by Syracuse and look at Cornell and Marylands wins. SU has 5 top 20 wins including 1 top 5, 1 top 10 and 3 top 20. SU also owns the head to head vs Cornell and beat Hopkins. If SU gets left out over Cornell and Maryland it's a joke, period.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
12,991
Like
8,549
metrics aside.. but cornell played 7 games against teams that played in their conf final, SU played 5, JH played 4. maryland played 6
 

Zack80

Scout Team
Joined
Sep 21, 2011
Messages
251
Like
110
Look at the wins by Syracuse and look at Cornell and Marylands wins. SU has 5 top 20 wins including 1 top 5, 1 top 10 and 3 top 20. SU also owns the head to head vs Cornell and beat Hopkins. If SU gets left out over Cornell and Maryland it's a joke, period.
Maryland has 5 top 20 wins also. Not quite is good, at the moment Penn has slipped to #6, and Maryland's other 4 wins are in the 11-20 range. Not as good as Syracuse, but Maryland does have the advantage in not having any losses outside the top 10, while Syracuse did lose to Colgate.

If I were on the selection committee one of the first things I would notice is that both Maryland and Syracuse have 5 top 20 wins to only 4 losses. Meanwhile, with Hopkins you have 3 top 20 wins to 7 losses (assuming they lose to PSU) and with Cornell you have 2 top 20 wins to 5 losses.

Barring something significant, I would already be rather positively disposed towards Maryland and Syracuse. While the rankings in RPI might seem to differ by a fair amount, the actual difference in the RPI values is not that large, especially given the number of games.
I don't have SOS numbers, the rankings on laxbytes are Hopkins #2, Cornell #3, Syracuse #14 and Maryland #16. So this is a plus for Hopkins and Cornell. Larry's calculations make it a large plus, but I have my doubts.
So we will see.
 

orange79

Internet Sleuth
Joined
Aug 20, 2011
Messages
23,501
Like
59,213
Maryland has 5 top 20 wins also. Not quite is good, at the moment Penn has slipped to #6, and Maryland's other 4 wins are in the 11-20 range. Not as good as Syracuse, but Maryland does have the advantage in not having any losses outside the top 10, while Syracuse did lose to Colgate.

If I were on the selection committee one of the first things I would notice is that both Maryland and Syracuse have 5 top 20 wins to only 4 losses. Meanwhile, with Hopkins you have 3 top 20 wins to 7 losses (assuming they lose to PSU) and with Cornell you have 2 top 20 wins to 5 losses.

Barring something significant, I would already be rather positively disposed towards Maryland and Syracuse. While the rankings in RPI might seem to differ by a fair amount, the actual difference in the RPI values is not that large, especially given the number of games.
I don't have SOS numbers, the rankings on laxbytes are Hopkins #2, Cornell #3, Syracuse #14 and Maryland #16. So this is a plus for Hopkins and Cornell. Larry's calculations make it a large plus, but I have my doubts.
So we will see.
laxbytes SOS:

162065
 

Faegan

All Conference
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
2,405
Like
1,853
It may come down to Syracuse and Towson. This is why: Based on RPI, SOS and Quality Wins, they are behind the following: Duke, Penn State, Virginia, Penn, Yale, Hopkins, Loyola, Cornell, Notre Dame, Maryland and Towson. Two or three of these teams get AQ's. Now if Towson defeats Drexel, they get the AQ and Syracuse is eight and last in line to get the At-large. If Towson loses then they fall slightly behind Syracuse in numerics but since they are neck and neck, the NCAA could invite Towson over Syracuse.

If the committee pulls off a surprise, it would be to drop Cornell, Notre Dame, Maryland or Hopkins. Unlikely but Cornell losing to Syracuse would probably be the argument.

Syracuse has an RPI, SOS and QW ranking of 9, 11 and 10. Go to
Lacrosse Stats|Lacrosse CollegeRankings|NCAA Lacrosse Championship Tournament or
laxinteractive.com (what if?) to see how close they are with others.

If the MD1criteria means anything, Syracuse (should they get in) has NO chance for a home field first round game.
Solidly Uninformed and Moronical. Congrats.
 

Zack80

Scout Team
Joined
Sep 21, 2011
Messages
251
Like
110
These SOS numbers look a little peculiar. The only team with an RPI above .670 is PSU at .6878 with #2 UVa at .6470. Yet Notre Dame's average is .6780

The guy over at lax magazine has dramatically different SOS numbers with Syracuse at #8 and Maryland at #6.
 

JeremyCuse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
20,663
Like
17,852
These SOS numbers look a little peculiar. The only team with an RPI above .670 is PSU at .6878 with #2 UVa at .6470. Yet Notre Dame's average is .6780

The guy over at lax magazine has dramatically different SOS numbers with Syracuse at #8 and Maryland at #6.
Those numbers sound correct, SU was at 6 for SOS before UNC I doubt they fell that much.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
12,991
Like
8,549
doesnt it really come down to whether RPI is using 10 games like some sites say and not the whole season?
 

OrangeXtreme

The Mayor of Dewitt
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
104,219
Like
131,053
These SOS numbers look a little peculiar. The only team with an RPI above .670 is PSU at .6878 with #2 UVa at .6470. Yet Notre Dame's average is .6780

The guy over at lax magazine has dramatically different SOS numbers with Syracuse at #8 and Maryland at #6.
Different SOS numbers:

 

Online statistics

Members online
194
Guests online
761
Total visitors
955

Top Bottom