SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Trevor Cooney…… 21NP in 36 minutes season: 204NP in 522 minutes per 40: 15.6
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 37 minutes season: 201NP in 469 minutes per 40: 17.1
Tyler Ennis………….. 14NP in 40 minutes season: 236NP in 565 minutes per 40: 16.7
C. J. Fair………………. 9NP in 39 minutes season: 213NP in 615 minutes per 40: 13.9
Tyler Roberson……. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 18NP in 96 minutes per 40: 7.5
Michael Gbinije …. -1NP in 5 minutes season: 73NP in 228 minutes per 40: 12.8
Rakeem Christmas -1NP in 14 minutes season: 114NP in 346 minutes per 40: 13.2
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 27 minutes season: 55NP in 284 minutes per 40: 7.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: Four players played in this game and had negative net points. Baye Keita attempted one shot, grabbed three rebounds and didn’t block a shot in 27 minutes. Of course he contributes more than the numbers in manning the middle but we need him to show up in the box score a little better than that. Rakeem Christmas got into foul trouble. But he had only 1 rebound and no blocks in 14 minutes. Those are our centers. The “big four” of Ennis, Cooney, Fair and Grant carried the team statistically, as they will have to continue to do the rest of the season.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 8 times, no mean feat for a guard. Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 14 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 31 times, (45.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 21 times (33.3%). We’ve averaged getting 40.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.6% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 12 times in 16 games.
Of our 8 turnovers, 3 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 16 turnovers, an incredible 13 were Syracuse steals and 3 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (166-269) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (86-105). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 28 rebounds to their 16 turnovers, we had 44 “manufactured possessions”. They had 24 + 8 = 32, so we were +10. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.6. We’ve won by double figures 11 times, including the last 5. It’s the main reason we are 17-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 20 for 43, (.465) inside the arc, 4 for 10, (.400), outside it and 17 for 21 (.810) from the line. They were 8/13, (.615), 9/21 (.429) and 16/26 (.615). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .501/.351/.696, the opposition .482/.328/.670. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 26 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .501-.482 = +19.
We had 69 points, 32 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 17 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 59-12-27-16 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 20 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 31 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.
7 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.292) and 14 of their 17 (.824). For the year we are assisting on 51.6% of our baskets to 64.6% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 14 of 17 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 53 FGA -14 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 21) = 56.975 possessions. They were 34 –7 + 16 + (.475 x 26) = 55.35 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 57 possessions in which we scored 69 points, (1.211) and 56 possessions in which they scored 59 points, (1.054. For the year we are 1.162 vs. 0.935. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 17-0. We’ve averaged 125 total possessions per game this year but have been below that in every ACC game, suggesting that our hopes of more wide-open, fast paced games in this conference may not come to pass.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 16-13, 16-17, 14-21, 23-8. The average for the season is: 17-14, 19-15, 17-15, 19-14. We’ve won 45 quarters, lost 17 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 53 of 68 quarters and held the opposition under that 37 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cconey had 21 points and no assists for 21 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down in both halves with a lay-up at 1:345 of the first half and a trey only 19 seconds into the second half. CJ has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 8 times, Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times, and Rakeem Christmas 4 times.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first Half) and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half). We’ve scored in less than a minute every other time.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Trevor Cooney…… 21NP in 36 minutes season: 204NP in 522 minutes per 40: 15.6
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 37 minutes season: 201NP in 469 minutes per 40: 17.1
Tyler Ennis………….. 14NP in 40 minutes season: 236NP in 565 minutes per 40: 16.7
C. J. Fair………………. 9NP in 39 minutes season: 213NP in 615 minutes per 40: 13.9
Tyler Roberson……. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 18NP in 96 minutes per 40: 7.5
Michael Gbinije …. -1NP in 5 minutes season: 73NP in 228 minutes per 40: 12.8
Rakeem Christmas -1NP in 14 minutes season: 114NP in 346 minutes per 40: 13.2
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 27 minutes season: 55NP in 284 minutes per 40: 7.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: Four players played in this game and had negative net points. Baye Keita attempted one shot, grabbed three rebounds and didn’t block a shot in 27 minutes. Of course he contributes more than the numbers in manning the middle but we need him to show up in the box score a little better than that. Rakeem Christmas got into foul trouble. But he had only 1 rebound and no blocks in 14 minutes. Those are our centers. The “big four” of Ennis, Cooney, Fair and Grant carried the team statistically, as they will have to continue to do the rest of the season.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 8 times, no mean feat for a guard. Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 14 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 31 times, (45.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 21 times (33.3%). We’ve averaged getting 40.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.6% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 12 times in 16 games.
Of our 8 turnovers, 3 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 16 turnovers, an incredible 13 were Syracuse steals and 3 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (166-269) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (86-105). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 28 rebounds to their 16 turnovers, we had 44 “manufactured possessions”. They had 24 + 8 = 32, so we were +10. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.6. We’ve won by double figures 11 times, including the last 5. It’s the main reason we are 17-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 20 for 43, (.465) inside the arc, 4 for 10, (.400), outside it and 17 for 21 (.810) from the line. They were 8/13, (.615), 9/21 (.429) and 16/26 (.615). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .501/.351/.696, the opposition .482/.328/.670. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 26 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .501-.482 = +19.
We had 69 points, 32 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 17 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 59-12-27-16 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 20 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 31 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.
7 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.292) and 14 of their 17 (.824). For the year we are assisting on 51.6% of our baskets to 64.6% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 14 of 17 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 53 FGA -14 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 21) = 56.975 possessions. They were 34 –7 + 16 + (.475 x 26) = 55.35 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 57 possessions in which we scored 69 points, (1.211) and 56 possessions in which they scored 59 points, (1.054. For the year we are 1.162 vs. 0.935. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 17-0. We’ve averaged 125 total possessions per game this year but have been below that in every ACC game, suggesting that our hopes of more wide-open, fast paced games in this conference may not come to pass.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 16-13, 16-17, 14-21, 23-8. The average for the season is: 17-14, 19-15, 17-15, 19-14. We’ve won 45 quarters, lost 17 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 53 of 68 quarters and held the opposition under that 37 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cconey had 21 points and no assists for 21 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down in both halves with a lay-up at 1:345 of the first half and a trey only 19 seconds into the second half. CJ has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 8 times, Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times, and Rakeem Christmas 4 times.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first Half) and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half). We’ve scored in less than a minute every other time.
