SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 12NP in 34 minutes season: 331NP in 841 minutes per 40: 15.7
Tyler Ennis………….. 10NP in 40 minutes season: 348NP in 939 minutes per 40: 14.8
C. J. Fair………………. 7NP in 38 minutes season: 320NP in 1019 minutes per 40: 12.6
Michael Gbinije …. 6NP in 20 minutes season: 100NP in 362 minutes per 40: 11.0
Rakeem Christmas 3NP in 17 minutes season: 221NP in 629 minutes per 40: 14.1
Baye Moussa Keita 3NP in 20 minutes season: 83NP in 385 minutes per 40: 8.6
Trevor Cooney…… 3NP in 31 minutes season: 293NP in 868 minutes per 40: 13.5
DNP
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 122 minutes per 40: 6.2
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: Here is a comparison of the net points per 40 minutes averages of our six returning players from last year to this:
Trevor Cooney 5.8 to 13.5 = +7.7
Jerami Grant 10.7 to 15.7 = +5.0
Rakeem Christmas 11.9 to 14.1 = +2.2
DaJuan Coleman 12.5 to 14.4 = +1.9
Baye Moussa Keita 11.5 to 8.6 = -2.9
CJ Fair 16.3 to 12.6 = -3.7
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 11 times. Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair have led 5 times, Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 16 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 16 of 39 times, (41.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 32 times (34.4%). We’ve averaged getting 39.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.4% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 19 times in 27 games.
Of our 8 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 23 of 27 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 131 turnovers on the season, (244-375) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (129-151). We have had single digit turnovers in 12 of 14 ACC games and had only 10 in the other two. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 37 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 48 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 7 = 41, so we were +7. We’ve won that battle 23 times this season in 27 games, with an average margin of +8.8. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 25-2. But it didn’t help us here.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 22 for 53, (.415) inside the arc, 2 for 9, (.222) outside it and 10 for 14 (.714) from the line. They were 16 for 27 (.593), 7/21 (.333) and 13/250 (.520). Through the first Duke game, we were shooting 50.2% inside the arc. In the six games since, we are shooting 40.8%. In the last three games we are 6 for 33 beyond the arc, 18.2%. It’s hard to win when you have trouble putting the ball in the basket.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .481/.348/.705, the opposition .452/.340/.657. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 48 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .481-.452 = +29.
We had 60 points, (we have now scored 61, 57, 58, 56, 59 and 60 point in successive games), 30 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 10 from the line so we scored 14 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. That 14 TZ points was our most since we had the same number in the Duke game. They had 66-28-21-13= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 20 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. There’s your ball game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
8 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.333) and 15 of their 23 (.652). For the year we are assisting on 52.3% of our baskets to 64.4% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 23 of 27 games,25 of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jumps shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 62 FGA - 16 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 14) = 60.65 possessions. They were 48 -11 + 11 + (.475 x 25) = 59.875 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 61 possessions in which we scored 60 points, (0.984) and 60 possessions in which they scored 66 points, (1.100). For the year we are 1.139 vs. 0.966. I’ve been saying “We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 25-0”. It now occurs to me that you are always going to be more offensively efficient than your opposition if you win because the number of possessions is going to be the same or one off. Unsurprisingly, Boston College was the first team to be more efficient than we were and now Duke is the second. The real purpose of this stat is to compare team’s performances in different games or on the season. In the last 6 games we are averaging 1.032 points per possession, compared to 1.167 in the 21 games before that.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 121. Even Duke isn’t speeding things up against us this year. With our lack of depth and offensive woes, one wonders why.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 17-11, 9-15, 15-18, 19-22. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 17-16, 19-15. We’ve won 66 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 35 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 73 of 108 quarters and held the opposition under that 57 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Jerami Grant had 17 points and 2 assists for 19 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 11 times and CJ Fair has done it 10 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). in this game Rakeem Christmas sat us down in both halves with jump shot, 39 and 51 seconds in. He made only one other basket in the game. CJ Fair has now sat us down 16 times, Tyler Ennis 10 times and Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 9 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half)and 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 12NP in 34 minutes season: 331NP in 841 minutes per 40: 15.7
Tyler Ennis………….. 10NP in 40 minutes season: 348NP in 939 minutes per 40: 14.8
C. J. Fair………………. 7NP in 38 minutes season: 320NP in 1019 minutes per 40: 12.6
Michael Gbinije …. 6NP in 20 minutes season: 100NP in 362 minutes per 40: 11.0
Rakeem Christmas 3NP in 17 minutes season: 221NP in 629 minutes per 40: 14.1
Baye Moussa Keita 3NP in 20 minutes season: 83NP in 385 minutes per 40: 8.6
Trevor Cooney…… 3NP in 31 minutes season: 293NP in 868 minutes per 40: 13.5
DNP
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 122 minutes per 40: 6.2
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: Here is a comparison of the net points per 40 minutes averages of our six returning players from last year to this:
Trevor Cooney 5.8 to 13.5 = +7.7
Jerami Grant 10.7 to 15.7 = +5.0
Rakeem Christmas 11.9 to 14.1 = +2.2
DaJuan Coleman 12.5 to 14.4 = +1.9
Baye Moussa Keita 11.5 to 8.6 = -2.9
CJ Fair 16.3 to 12.6 = -3.7
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 11 times. Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair have led 5 times, Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 16 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 16 of 39 times, (41.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 32 times (34.4%). We’ve averaged getting 39.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.4% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 19 times in 27 games.
Of our 8 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 23 of 27 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 131 turnovers on the season, (244-375) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (129-151). We have had single digit turnovers in 12 of 14 ACC games and had only 10 in the other two. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 37 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 48 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 7 = 41, so we were +7. We’ve won that battle 23 times this season in 27 games, with an average margin of +8.8. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 25-2. But it didn’t help us here.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 22 for 53, (.415) inside the arc, 2 for 9, (.222) outside it and 10 for 14 (.714) from the line. They were 16 for 27 (.593), 7/21 (.333) and 13/250 (.520). Through the first Duke game, we were shooting 50.2% inside the arc. In the six games since, we are shooting 40.8%. In the last three games we are 6 for 33 beyond the arc, 18.2%. It’s hard to win when you have trouble putting the ball in the basket.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .481/.348/.705, the opposition .452/.340/.657. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 48 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .481-.452 = +29.
We had 60 points, (we have now scored 61, 57, 58, 56, 59 and 60 point in successive games), 30 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 10 from the line so we scored 14 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. That 14 TZ points was our most since we had the same number in the Duke game. They had 66-28-21-13= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 20 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. There’s your ball game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
8 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.333) and 15 of their 23 (.652). For the year we are assisting on 52.3% of our baskets to 64.4% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 23 of 27 games,25 of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jumps shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 62 FGA - 16 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 14) = 60.65 possessions. They were 48 -11 + 11 + (.475 x 25) = 59.875 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 61 possessions in which we scored 60 points, (0.984) and 60 possessions in which they scored 66 points, (1.100). For the year we are 1.139 vs. 0.966. I’ve been saying “We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 25-0”. It now occurs to me that you are always going to be more offensively efficient than your opposition if you win because the number of possessions is going to be the same or one off. Unsurprisingly, Boston College was the first team to be more efficient than we were and now Duke is the second. The real purpose of this stat is to compare team’s performances in different games or on the season. In the last 6 games we are averaging 1.032 points per possession, compared to 1.167 in the 21 games before that.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 121. Even Duke isn’t speeding things up against us this year. With our lack of depth and offensive woes, one wonders why.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 17-11, 9-15, 15-18, 19-22. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 17-16, 19-15. We’ve won 66 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 35 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 73 of 108 quarters and held the opposition under that 57 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Jerami Grant had 17 points and 2 assists for 19 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 11 times and CJ Fair has done it 10 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). in this game Rakeem Christmas sat us down in both halves with jump shot, 39 and 51 seconds in. He made only one other basket in the game. CJ Fair has now sat us down 16 times, Tyler Ennis 10 times and Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 9 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half)and 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half)
