SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 30NP in 38 minutes season: 123NP in 260 minutes per 40: 18.9
Trevor Cooney…… 18NP in 29 minutes season: 106NP in 237 minutes per 40: 17.9
C. J. Fair………………. 15NP in 35 minutes season: 94NP in 290 minutes per 40: 13.0
Rakeem Christmas 3NP in 24 minutes season: 50NP in 177 minutes per 40: 11.3
DaJuan Coleman…. 2NP in 14 minutes season: 48NP in 115 minutes per 40: 16.7
Jerami Grant……….. 0NP in 27 minutes season: 82NP in 193 minutes per 40: 17.0
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 16 minutes season: 29NP in 122 minutes per 40: 9.5
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 1 minute season: 8NP in 37 minutes per 40: 8.6
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 1 minute season: 4NP in 23 minutes per 40: 7.0
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 1 minute season: -1NP in 26 minutes per 40: -1.5
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 14 minutes season: 24NP in 117 minutes per 40: 8.2
Comment: The T and T backcourt has now gone to the top of the ratings, which is amazing since guards do not normally score as well as forwards and centers here because they shoot farther form the basket and don’t get as many rebounds. I had felt the strength of the team would be our forwards but CJ. Fair had had a couple of bad shooting nights and is still turning the ball over too much, (4 of our 11 last night). Jerami Grant hasn’t dominated- yet. DaJuan Coleman’s average is fading after a strong start and Christmas and Keita are not statistically productive, although they play good defense. Michael Gbinije has not been statistically prolific thus far and “My three Sons” aren’t getting a chance to play. They are looking forward to playing Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan. For what has been a very successful team there really haven’t been a lot of statistically productive players. It’s a team very much dependent of “the big four”. At le3ast there are four of them.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 4 times, no mean feat for a guard and his “T and T” partner Trevor Cooney is second with two games leading in net points, (once a tie between them), tied with CJ Fair. DaJuan Coleman has led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 28 times, (39.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 30 times (40.0%). We’ve averaged getting 41.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.8% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 5 times, (the first five), in 8 games. The big thing here is that Indiana came in as the best rebounding team in the country and we basically broke even with them.
Of our 11 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 16 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (79-138) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (42-54). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 29 rebounds to their 16 turnovers, we had 45 “manufactured possessions”. They had 29 + 11 = 40, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +12.3, It’s the main reason we are 8-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 18 for 34, (.529), inside the arc, 6 for 13, (.462), outside it and 15 for 25 (.600) from the line. They were 11/27, (.407), 4/14 (.286) and 18 for 24, (.750). This was the first game we played defense the way we did last year on the run to the Final Four. On the season, Syracuse is shooting .491/.364/.698, the opposition .500/.369/.701. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .491-.500 = -9. We’ll see if the improvement shown vs. Indiana was just because of their inability to attack a zone or whether this is going to be a genuinely good defensive team.
We had 69 points, 32 in the paint, 18 from the arc and 15 from the line so we scored 4 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 52-22-12-18 =0 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 12 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 28 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 29/4.
13 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.542) and 6 of their 15 (.400). For the year we are assisting on 49.3% of our baskets to 62.9% for the opposition, who have had more assists and a higher percentage in six of 8 games.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 47 FGA -11 OREBs + 11 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 58.875 possessions. They were 41 – 12 + 16 + (.475 x 24) = 56.4 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 58 possessions in which we scored 69 points, (1.190) and 57 possessions in which they scored 52 points, (0.912). For the year we are 1.179 vs. 0.975. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 8-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-7, 19-22, 17-7, 19-16. The average for the season is: 16-13, 20-18, 19-15, 20-17, (it takes a while for both teams to get warmed up, apparently). We’ve won 21 quarters, lost 9 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 27 of 32 quarters and held the opposition under that 14 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Tyler Ennis scored 17 points and 8 assists for 25 points to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 4 times, Tyler Ennis 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Jerami Grant has done it once .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). CJ Fair sat us down with a jumper 10 seconds into the first half and DaJuan Coleman with a a lay-up 2:33 seconds into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 6 times, Trevor Cooney has now sat us down 4 times, Tyler Ennis and Coleman three times each.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 30NP in 38 minutes season: 123NP in 260 minutes per 40: 18.9
Trevor Cooney…… 18NP in 29 minutes season: 106NP in 237 minutes per 40: 17.9
C. J. Fair………………. 15NP in 35 minutes season: 94NP in 290 minutes per 40: 13.0
Rakeem Christmas 3NP in 24 minutes season: 50NP in 177 minutes per 40: 11.3
DaJuan Coleman…. 2NP in 14 minutes season: 48NP in 115 minutes per 40: 16.7
Jerami Grant……….. 0NP in 27 minutes season: 82NP in 193 minutes per 40: 17.0
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 16 minutes season: 29NP in 122 minutes per 40: 9.5
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 1 minute season: 8NP in 37 minutes per 40: 8.6
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 1 minute season: 4NP in 23 minutes per 40: 7.0
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 1 minute season: -1NP in 26 minutes per 40: -1.5
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 14 minutes season: 24NP in 117 minutes per 40: 8.2
Comment: The T and T backcourt has now gone to the top of the ratings, which is amazing since guards do not normally score as well as forwards and centers here because they shoot farther form the basket and don’t get as many rebounds. I had felt the strength of the team would be our forwards but CJ. Fair had had a couple of bad shooting nights and is still turning the ball over too much, (4 of our 11 last night). Jerami Grant hasn’t dominated- yet. DaJuan Coleman’s average is fading after a strong start and Christmas and Keita are not statistically productive, although they play good defense. Michael Gbinije has not been statistically prolific thus far and “My three Sons” aren’t getting a chance to play. They are looking forward to playing Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan. For what has been a very successful team there really haven’t been a lot of statistically productive players. It’s a team very much dependent of “the big four”. At le3ast there are four of them.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 4 times, no mean feat for a guard and his “T and T” partner Trevor Cooney is second with two games leading in net points, (once a tie between them), tied with CJ Fair. DaJuan Coleman has led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 28 times, (39.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 30 times (40.0%). We’ve averaged getting 41.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.8% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 5 times, (the first five), in 8 games. The big thing here is that Indiana came in as the best rebounding team in the country and we basically broke even with them.
Of our 11 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 16 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (79-138) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (42-54). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 29 rebounds to their 16 turnovers, we had 45 “manufactured possessions”. They had 29 + 11 = 40, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +12.3, It’s the main reason we are 8-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 18 for 34, (.529), inside the arc, 6 for 13, (.462), outside it and 15 for 25 (.600) from the line. They were 11/27, (.407), 4/14 (.286) and 18 for 24, (.750). This was the first game we played defense the way we did last year on the run to the Final Four. On the season, Syracuse is shooting .491/.364/.698, the opposition .500/.369/.701. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .491-.500 = -9. We’ll see if the improvement shown vs. Indiana was just because of their inability to attack a zone or whether this is going to be a genuinely good defensive team.
We had 69 points, 32 in the paint, 18 from the arc and 15 from the line so we scored 4 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 52-22-12-18 =0 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 12 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 28 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 29/4.
13 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.542) and 6 of their 15 (.400). For the year we are assisting on 49.3% of our baskets to 62.9% for the opposition, who have had more assists and a higher percentage in six of 8 games.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 47 FGA -11 OREBs + 11 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 58.875 possessions. They were 41 – 12 + 16 + (.475 x 24) = 56.4 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 58 possessions in which we scored 69 points, (1.190) and 57 possessions in which they scored 52 points, (0.912). For the year we are 1.179 vs. 0.975. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 8-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-7, 19-22, 17-7, 19-16. The average for the season is: 16-13, 20-18, 19-15, 20-17, (it takes a while for both teams to get warmed up, apparently). We’ve won 21 quarters, lost 9 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 27 of 32 quarters and held the opposition under that 14 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Tyler Ennis scored 17 points and 8 assists for 25 points to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 4 times, Tyler Ennis 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Jerami Grant has done it once .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). CJ Fair sat us down with a jumper 10 seconds into the first half and DaJuan Coleman with a a lay-up 2:33 seconds into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 6 times, Trevor Cooney has now sat us down 4 times, Tyler Ennis and Coleman three times each.
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