SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Trevor Cooney…… 23NP in 33 minutes season: 164NP in 353 minutes per 40: 18.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 14NP in 37 minutes season: 174NP in 384 minutes per 40: 18.1
C. J. Fair………………. 9NP in 36 minutes season: 150NP in 426 minutes per 40: 14.1
Baye Moussa Keita 8NP in 23 minutes season: 46NP in 191 minutes per 40: 9.6
Jerami Grant……….. 7NP in 35 minutes season: 131NP in 297 minutes per 40: 17.6
Michael Gbinije …. 4NP in 11 minutes season: 57NP in 180 minutes per 40: 12.7
Tyler Roberson……. 1NP in 4 minutes season: 11NP in 66 minutes per 40: 6.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 1NP in 6 minutes season: 61NP in 166 minutes per 40: 14.7
Rakeem Christmas 1NP in 15 minutes season: 72NP in 242 minutes per 40: 11.9
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 44 minutes per 40: -0.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 10NP in 43 minutes per 40: 9.3
Comment: On what other team in the country are the two best players the guards? Well, I suppose there could be a few. But they aren’t likely to be ranked #2 in the country. I thought our two best players would be our forwards. They haven’t been bad by any means, although Fair is struggling to get his numbers against constant double teams. I guess the centers are what they are. You aren’t going to have five All-America caliber players. It is nice to see Keita back to making his normal contributions.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 6 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. DaJuan Coleman has led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 27 times, (37.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 34 times (32.4%). We’ve averaged getting 40.3% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.2% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 8 times in 12 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 14 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 7 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (121-198) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (64-77). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt. The “stat of the game” for this one was that our point guard had 0 turnovers in 37 minutes against a team that played pressure defense the whole game, often from full court.
If you add our 33 rebounds to their 14 turnovers, we had 47 “manufactured possessions”. They had 28 + 12 = 40, so we were +7. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.2, It’s the main reason we are 12-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 14 for 32, (.438) inside the arc, 7 for 13, (.538), outside it and 29 for 35 (.829) from the line. They were 9/19, (.474), 10/31 (.323) and 14/22(.636). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .507/.378/.694, the opposition .491/.341/.701. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .507-.491 = +16.
(I have an issue with the box score information from SU athletics. We scored 78 points. They have us for 27 points “in the paint” We hit 7 treys, (for 21 points) and 29 free throws. That leaves one point scored in the “twilight zone” outside the paint and foul line but inside the arc. How the heck do you score 1 point from there? I’m going to assume we scored 26 points in the paint.)
We had 78 points, 26 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 29 from the line so we scored 2 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 62-10-30-14 =8 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 38 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 28/5.
9 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.429) and 14 of their 19 (.737). For the year we are assisting on 51.6% of our baskets to 62.0% for the opposition, who have had more assists and a higher percentage in 9 of 12 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 45 FGA -10 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 35) = 63.625 possessions. They were 50 – 11 + 14 + (.475 x 22) = 63.45 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 78 points, (1.219) and 63 possessions in which they scored 62 points, (0.984). For the year we are 1.187 vs. 0.964. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 12-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 10-25, 28-9, 14-11 26-17. The average for the season is: 17-14, 22-17, 18.5-15, 20-16. We’ve won 33 quarters, lost 13 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 39 of 48 quarters and held the opposition under that 22 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Trevor Cooney scored 21 points and had 2 assists for 23 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Ennis and C.J. Fair have done it 5 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it once.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down with a jumper 3:12 into the first half and Rak Christmas scored a lay-up 47 seconds into the second half. CJ has now sat us down 8 times, DaJuan Coleman and Tyler Ennis 5 times Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas twice. So far the longest stretch as been 4:51 in the second half vs. St. Francis.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Trevor Cooney…… 23NP in 33 minutes season: 164NP in 353 minutes per 40: 18.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 14NP in 37 minutes season: 174NP in 384 minutes per 40: 18.1
C. J. Fair………………. 9NP in 36 minutes season: 150NP in 426 minutes per 40: 14.1
Baye Moussa Keita 8NP in 23 minutes season: 46NP in 191 minutes per 40: 9.6
Jerami Grant……….. 7NP in 35 minutes season: 131NP in 297 minutes per 40: 17.6
Michael Gbinije …. 4NP in 11 minutes season: 57NP in 180 minutes per 40: 12.7
Tyler Roberson……. 1NP in 4 minutes season: 11NP in 66 minutes per 40: 6.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 1NP in 6 minutes season: 61NP in 166 minutes per 40: 14.7
Rakeem Christmas 1NP in 15 minutes season: 72NP in 242 minutes per 40: 11.9
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 44 minutes per 40: -0.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 10NP in 43 minutes per 40: 9.3
Comment: On what other team in the country are the two best players the guards? Well, I suppose there could be a few. But they aren’t likely to be ranked #2 in the country. I thought our two best players would be our forwards. They haven’t been bad by any means, although Fair is struggling to get his numbers against constant double teams. I guess the centers are what they are. You aren’t going to have five All-America caliber players. It is nice to see Keita back to making his normal contributions.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 6 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. DaJuan Coleman has led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 27 times, (37.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 34 times (32.4%). We’ve averaged getting 40.3% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.2% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 8 times in 12 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 14 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 7 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (121-198) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (64-77). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt. The “stat of the game” for this one was that our point guard had 0 turnovers in 37 minutes against a team that played pressure defense the whole game, often from full court.
If you add our 33 rebounds to their 14 turnovers, we had 47 “manufactured possessions”. They had 28 + 12 = 40, so we were +7. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.2, It’s the main reason we are 12-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 14 for 32, (.438) inside the arc, 7 for 13, (.538), outside it and 29 for 35 (.829) from the line. They were 9/19, (.474), 10/31 (.323) and 14/22(.636). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .507/.378/.694, the opposition .491/.341/.701. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .507-.491 = +16.
(I have an issue with the box score information from SU athletics. We scored 78 points. They have us for 27 points “in the paint” We hit 7 treys, (for 21 points) and 29 free throws. That leaves one point scored in the “twilight zone” outside the paint and foul line but inside the arc. How the heck do you score 1 point from there? I’m going to assume we scored 26 points in the paint.)
We had 78 points, 26 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 29 from the line so we scored 2 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 62-10-30-14 =8 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 38 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 28/5.
9 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.429) and 14 of their 19 (.737). For the year we are assisting on 51.6% of our baskets to 62.0% for the opposition, who have had more assists and a higher percentage in 9 of 12 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 45 FGA -10 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 35) = 63.625 possessions. They were 50 – 11 + 14 + (.475 x 22) = 63.45 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 78 points, (1.219) and 63 possessions in which they scored 62 points, (0.984). For the year we are 1.187 vs. 0.964. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 12-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 10-25, 28-9, 14-11 26-17. The average for the season is: 17-14, 22-17, 18.5-15, 20-16. We’ve won 33 quarters, lost 13 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 39 of 48 quarters and held the opposition under that 22 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Trevor Cooney scored 21 points and had 2 assists for 23 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Ennis and C.J. Fair have done it 5 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it once.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down with a jumper 3:12 into the first half and Rak Christmas scored a lay-up 47 seconds into the second half. CJ has now sat us down 8 times, DaJuan Coleman and Tyler Ennis 5 times Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas twice. So far the longest stretch as been 4:51 in the second half vs. St. Francis.