SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 28 minutes season: 99NP in 292 minutes per 40: 13.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 12NP in 39 minutes season: 194NP in 455 minutes per 40: 17.1
C. J. Fair………………. 11NP in 40 minutes season: 174NP in 503 minutes per 40: 13.8
Jerami Grant……….. 5NP in 38 minutes season: 150NP in 361 minutes per 40: 16.6
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 4 minutes season: 63NP in 202 minutes per 40: 12.5
Trevor Cooney…… 0NP in 39 minutes season: 174NP in 419 minutes per 40: 16.6
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 12 minutes season: 51NP in 221 minutes per 40: 9.2
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 80 minutes per 40: 9.5
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 11NP in 46 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 47 minutes per 40: 0.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 166 minutes per 40: 14.7
Comment: Every body’s stats suffered in this game. And we suffered from not having a go-to- inside guy. Miami managed to defend Cooney and Fair and deny Ennis a path to the basket for most of the game. Having grant play at the top of the key didn’t work. Christmas scored on some follow shots. But we are going 4 on 5 when Keita is in there and 3 on 5 when he’s joined by Gbinije, who showed far more scoring skill in his highlight films from high school. Wea re good, but we can be defended by a good defensive team. We are a good defensive team, too but that doesn’t show up in the stats they put in the box score for our players.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 7 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 12 of 32 times, (37.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 24 times (29.2%). We’ve averaged getting 39.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 10 times in 14 games.
Of our 7 turnovers, 2 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (141-231) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (76-95). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 29 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 44 “manufactured possessions”. They had 27 + 7 = 34, so we were +10. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.4, It’s the main reason we are 14-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 14 for 32, (.438) inside the arc, 3 for 15, (.200), outside it and 12 for 14 (.857) from the line. They were 10/21, (.476), 7/19 (.368) and 3/4(.750). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .511/.355/.694, the opposition .483/.334/.699. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .511-.483 = +28.
We had 49 points, 20 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 12 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 44-16-21-3 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 17 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.
10 of our 17 baskets were assisted (.588) and 13 of their 17 (.765). For the year we are assisting on 53.7% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 11 of 14 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 47 FGA -12 OREBs + 7 TOs + (.475 x 14) = 48.65 possessions. They were 40 –7 + 15 + (.475 x 4) = 49.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 49 possessions in which we scored 49 points, (1.000) and 50 possessions in which they scored 44 points, (0.880). For the year we are 1.165 vs. 0.938. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 14-0. The 99 total possessions in this were easily the lowest of the season, (the St. Francis game is second with 108). We’ve averaged 127 total possession per game this year.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 17-13, 8-8, 7-14, 17-9. The average for the season is: 17-14, 20-16, 18-15, 19-15. We’ve won 38 quarters, lost 15 and tied 3. We’ve scored at least 15 in 44 of 56 quarters and held the opposition under that 29 times. This and the Colgate games are the only ones in which the opposition did not have a 15 point quarter.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Tyler Ennis had 10 points and 7 assists for 17 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Fair and Ennis have done it 6 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down 43 seconds into the first half with a jump shot. I haven’t kept records but I doubt I’ve seen a longer stretch of standing an clapping, (by some of us, anyway), than the 8 minutes and 50 seconds it took to score in the second half. CJ Fair finally sat us down with a trey. CJ has now sat us down 9 times, Tyler 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times, Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas four times each. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half). Every other half, we’ve scored in the first minute.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 28 minutes season: 99NP in 292 minutes per 40: 13.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 12NP in 39 minutes season: 194NP in 455 minutes per 40: 17.1
C. J. Fair………………. 11NP in 40 minutes season: 174NP in 503 minutes per 40: 13.8
Jerami Grant……….. 5NP in 38 minutes season: 150NP in 361 minutes per 40: 16.6
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 4 minutes season: 63NP in 202 minutes per 40: 12.5
Trevor Cooney…… 0NP in 39 minutes season: 174NP in 419 minutes per 40: 16.6
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 12 minutes season: 51NP in 221 minutes per 40: 9.2
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 80 minutes per 40: 9.5
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 11NP in 46 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 47 minutes per 40: 0.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 166 minutes per 40: 14.7
Comment: Every body’s stats suffered in this game. And we suffered from not having a go-to- inside guy. Miami managed to defend Cooney and Fair and deny Ennis a path to the basket for most of the game. Having grant play at the top of the key didn’t work. Christmas scored on some follow shots. But we are going 4 on 5 when Keita is in there and 3 on 5 when he’s joined by Gbinije, who showed far more scoring skill in his highlight films from high school. Wea re good, but we can be defended by a good defensive team. We are a good defensive team, too but that doesn’t show up in the stats they put in the box score for our players.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 7 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 12 of 32 times, (37.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 24 times (29.2%). We’ve averaged getting 39.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 10 times in 14 games.
Of our 7 turnovers, 2 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (141-231) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (76-95). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 29 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 44 “manufactured possessions”. They had 27 + 7 = 34, so we were +10. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.4, It’s the main reason we are 14-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 14 for 32, (.438) inside the arc, 3 for 15, (.200), outside it and 12 for 14 (.857) from the line. They were 10/21, (.476), 7/19 (.368) and 3/4(.750). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .511/.355/.694, the opposition .483/.334/.699. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .511-.483 = +28.
We had 49 points, 20 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 12 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 44-16-21-3 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 17 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.
10 of our 17 baskets were assisted (.588) and 13 of their 17 (.765). For the year we are assisting on 53.7% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 11 of 14 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 47 FGA -12 OREBs + 7 TOs + (.475 x 14) = 48.65 possessions. They were 40 –7 + 15 + (.475 x 4) = 49.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 49 possessions in which we scored 49 points, (1.000) and 50 possessions in which they scored 44 points, (0.880). For the year we are 1.165 vs. 0.938. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 14-0. The 99 total possessions in this were easily the lowest of the season, (the St. Francis game is second with 108). We’ve averaged 127 total possession per game this year.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 17-13, 8-8, 7-14, 17-9. The average for the season is: 17-14, 20-16, 18-15, 19-15. We’ve won 38 quarters, lost 15 and tied 3. We’ve scored at least 15 in 44 of 56 quarters and held the opposition under that 29 times. This and the Colgate games are the only ones in which the opposition did not have a 15 point quarter.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Tyler Ennis had 10 points and 7 assists for 17 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Fair and Ennis have done it 6 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down 43 seconds into the first half with a jump shot. I haven’t kept records but I doubt I’ve seen a longer stretch of standing an clapping, (by some of us, anyway), than the 8 minutes and 50 seconds it took to score in the second half. CJ Fair finally sat us down with a trey. CJ has now sat us down 9 times, Tyler 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times, Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas four times each. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half). Every other half, we’ve scored in the first minute.
