Net Points, etc. | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc.

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.


The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.


Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.


Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):


Tyler Ennis………….. 17NP in 36 minutes season: 211NP in 491 minutes per 40: 17.2

Jerami Grant……….. 15NP in 31 minutes season: 165NP in 392 minutes per 40: 16.8

C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 33 minutes season: 186NP in 536 minutes per 40: 13.9

Trevor Cooney…… 8NP in 31 minutes season: 182NP in 450 minutes per 40: 16.2

Baye Moussa Keita 7NP in 26 minutes season: 58NP in 247 minutes per 40: 9.4

Michael Gbinije …. 6NP in 11 minutes season: 69NP in 213 minutes per 40: 13.0

Rakeem Christmas 4NP in 10 minutes season: 103NP in 302 minutes per 40: 13.6

Ron Patterson…….. 2NP in 3 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6

DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 3 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4

B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 3 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8

Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 13 minutes season: 19NP in 93 minutes per 40: 8.2


Comment: The numbers are beginning to get consistent: a single changes the average significantly only for the reserves. Tyler Ennis is clearly the team’s best player Roberson’s number for this game are a little deceiving, but maybe not. He scored 4 points and had three rebounds in 13 minutes and looked good doing it. But he missed a couple of free throws and committed three fouls in those 13 minutes. At that rate, he would never have finished the game, or even a half. He looked good but his game still needs refining.


Tyler Ennis has led in net points 8 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman once.


Possession:


Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 24 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 14 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 31 times, (54.8%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 35 times (31.4%). We’ve averaged getting 40.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.6% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 11 times in 15 games.


Of our 7 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 3 were our own miscues. Of their 8 turnovers, 6 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (148-239) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (79-97). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt. The Virginia Tech game was remarkable for the lack of turnovers by either team, a total of only 15.


If you add our 41 rebounds to their 8 turnovers, we had 49 “manufactured possessions”. They had 25 + 7 = 32, so we were +17. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.6, It’s the main reason we are 15-0.


Shooting:


It’s still what the game is all about. We were 19 for 38, (.500) inside the arc, 9 for 22, (.409), outside it and 7 for 13 (.538) from the line. They were 11/25, (.440), 7/24 (.292) and 9/17(.529). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .510/.360/.688, the opposition .480/.331/.688. We complain about our free throw shooting but both SU and the opposition shooting the same percentage on the year. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .510-.480 = +30.


We had 72 points, 18 in the paint, 27 from the arc and 9 from the line so we scored 20 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 52-18-21-9 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 47 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. That’s the most POP and TZ points we’ve had all year. The twenty TZ points is an indication the players may be realizing that you don’t have to be in the paint or at the arc to score. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.


11 of our 28 baskets were assisted (.392) and 10 of their 18 (.556). For the year we are assisting on 39.2% of our baskets to 55.6% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 12 of 15 games, all of which we’ve won.


You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA -17 OREBs + 7 TOs + (.475 x 13) = 56.175 possessions. They were 49 –11 + 8 + (.475 x 17) = 54.075 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 56 possessions in which we scored 72 points, (1.286) and 55 possessions in which they scored 52 points, (0.945). For the year we are 1.172 vs. 0.945. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 15-0. We’ve averaged 126 total possessions per game this year. The pace of the Virginia Tech game wasn’t much better than the Miami game: 111 possessions vs. 99. We had 108 vs. St. Francis, a game in which we scored 56 points. We scored 72 in this game because of our efficiency.


Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 20-14, 15-15, 18-11, 19-12. The average for the season is: 17-14, 20-16, 18-14, 19-15. We’ve won 41 quarters, lost 15 and tied 4. We’ve scored at least 15 in 48 of 60 quarters and held the opposition under that 32 times.


Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Tyler Ennis had 13 points and 7 assists for 20 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Ennis has done it 7 times, Fair 6 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.


I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Trevor Cooney sat us down in the first half with a trey 57 seconds in and CJ Fair did it in the second with a lay-up 16 seconds in. CJ has now sat us down 10 times, Tyler 6 times, DaJuan Coleman and Trevor Cooney 5 times, and Rakeem Christmas 4 times. We were 8:50 vs. Miami (second half), 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half). Every other half, we’ve scored in the first minute.
 

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