SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 20NP in 40 minutes season: 185NP in 432 minutes per 40: 17.1
C. J. Fair………………. 18NP in 40 minutes season: 204NP in 576 minutes per 40: 14.2
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 30 minutes season: 115NP in 332 minutes per 40: 13.9
Tyler Ennis………….. 11NP in 34 minutes season: 222NP in 525 minutes per 40: 16.9
Michael Gbinije …. 5NP in 10 minutes season: 74NP in 223 minutes per 40: 13.3
Trevor Cooney…… 1NP in 36 minutes season: 183NP in 486 minutes per 40: 15.1
Baye Moussa Keita -2NP in 10 minutes season: 56NP in 257 minutes per 40: 8.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 93 minutes per 40: 8.2
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: Seven guys played in this game: that’s obviously going to be our rotation for the big games. We’ll see what happens when DaJuan Coleman is really ready to go again but he rarely played after the first few minutes of the most competitive games. This was the first game in which Jerami Grant led in “net points”. It won’t be the last. He’s one of six different players to led the team in net points this year.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 8 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times andso has Trevor Cooney. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 24 defensive rebounds. They had 10 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 42 times, (40.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 34 times (29.4%). We’ve averaged getting 40.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 12 times in 16 games.
Of our 10 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 14 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (158-253) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (81-102). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 41 rebounds to their 14 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 10 = 45, so we were +10. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.6, It’s the main reason we are 16-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 17 for 41, (.415) inside the arc, 4 for 19, (.211), outside it and 11for 15 (.733) from the line. They were 18/39, (.462), 2/12 (.167) and 3/9 (.333). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .504/.349/.690, the opposition .478/.326/.676. We complain about our free throw shooting but but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .504-.478 = +26.
We had 57 points, 24 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 11 from the line so we scored 10 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 45-26-3-6 =10 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 16 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
12 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.571) and 13 of their 20 (.650). For the year we are assisting on 52.9% of our baskets to 63.7% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 13 of 16 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA -17 OREBs + 10 TOs + (.475 x 15) = 60.125 possessions. They were 51 –10 + 14 + (.475 x 9) = 59.275 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 60 possessions in which we scored 57 points, (0.950) and 59 possessions in which they scored 45 points, (0.763). For the year we are 1.159 vs. 0.928. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 16-0. We’ve averaged 126 total possessions per game this year. This was the first game all season in which we didn’t have at least as many points as possessions.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 19-15, 15-7, 13-13, 10-10. The average for the season is: 18-14, 19-15, 17-14, 18.5-15. We’ve won 43 quarters, lost 15 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 50 of 64 quarters and held the opposition under that 35 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 20 points and 1 assist for 21 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). CJ Fair sat us down with a lay-up 1:18 into the first half and Trevor Cooney did it with a trey 2:05 in the second half. CJ has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 6 times, DaJuan Coleman and Trevor Cooney 5 times, and Rakeem Christmas 4 times.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second hal), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first
half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half) and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half). We’ve scored in less than a minute every other time.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 20NP in 40 minutes season: 185NP in 432 minutes per 40: 17.1
C. J. Fair………………. 18NP in 40 minutes season: 204NP in 576 minutes per 40: 14.2
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 30 minutes season: 115NP in 332 minutes per 40: 13.9
Tyler Ennis………….. 11NP in 34 minutes season: 222NP in 525 minutes per 40: 16.9
Michael Gbinije …. 5NP in 10 minutes season: 74NP in 223 minutes per 40: 13.3
Trevor Cooney…… 1NP in 36 minutes season: 183NP in 486 minutes per 40: 15.1
Baye Moussa Keita -2NP in 10 minutes season: 56NP in 257 minutes per 40: 8.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 93 minutes per 40: 8.2
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: Seven guys played in this game: that’s obviously going to be our rotation for the big games. We’ll see what happens when DaJuan Coleman is really ready to go again but he rarely played after the first few minutes of the most competitive games. This was the first game in which Jerami Grant led in “net points”. It won’t be the last. He’s one of six different players to led the team in net points this year.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 8 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times andso has Trevor Cooney. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 24 defensive rebounds. They had 10 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 42 times, (40.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 34 times (29.4%). We’ve averaged getting 40.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 12 times in 16 games.
Of our 10 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 14 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (158-253) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (81-102). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 41 rebounds to their 14 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 10 = 45, so we were +10. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.6, It’s the main reason we are 16-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 17 for 41, (.415) inside the arc, 4 for 19, (.211), outside it and 11for 15 (.733) from the line. They were 18/39, (.462), 2/12 (.167) and 3/9 (.333). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .504/.349/.690, the opposition .478/.326/.676. We complain about our free throw shooting but but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .504-.478 = +26.
We had 57 points, 24 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 11 from the line so we scored 10 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 45-26-3-6 =10 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 16 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
12 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.571) and 13 of their 20 (.650). For the year we are assisting on 52.9% of our baskets to 63.7% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 13 of 16 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA -17 OREBs + 10 TOs + (.475 x 15) = 60.125 possessions. They were 51 –10 + 14 + (.475 x 9) = 59.275 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 60 possessions in which we scored 57 points, (0.950) and 59 possessions in which they scored 45 points, (0.763). For the year we are 1.159 vs. 0.928. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 16-0. We’ve averaged 126 total possessions per game this year. This was the first game all season in which we didn’t have at least as many points as possessions.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 19-15, 15-7, 13-13, 10-10. The average for the season is: 18-14, 19-15, 17-14, 18.5-15. We’ve won 43 quarters, lost 15 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 50 of 64 quarters and held the opposition under that 35 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 20 points and 1 assist for 21 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). CJ Fair sat us down with a lay-up 1:18 into the first half and Trevor Cooney did it with a trey 2:05 in the second half. CJ has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 6 times, DaJuan Coleman and Trevor Cooney 5 times, and Rakeem Christmas 4 times.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second hal), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first
half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half) and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half). We’ve scored in less than a minute every other time.
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