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North Carolina Preview

Powellfan

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Well for the second time this year Syracuse travels south to play UNC at UNC. This time it is to advance in the ACC Tournament and play Virginia on Saturday. Of course SU was one goal away from being the 1 seed in the ACC Tourney, but it is what it is.

All things being equal I think Syracuse really should win this and win pretty handily. But things don't always work out that way. UNC is a strange team, they have a lot of talent on their team but it hasn't really translated to victories this season. I was struck by their second line midfield in the game against Notre Dame - Tanner Cook and Will Perry have so much talent but they've been relegated to back up roles. They showed it against the Irish and put up points. UNC showed flashes against the Irish, and despite being thoroughly outplayed the entire game in pretty much every aspect save goaltending, they were never out of it. SU can't take this game for granted, especially since UNC will be playing for their playoff lives.

I'll be watching to see what the motivation levels for SU are - they are playing their best ball of the season right now, but they are playing a team they've already beaten in a tournament they don't really need. That said if they pull out the victory I will be very impressed. Also I'm a little worried about face-offs, Phaup didn't look himself against UNC last time and his numbers weren't great against Navy. I would be greatly encouraged to see him bounce back against the Tar Heels.
 
Well for the second time this year Syracuse travels south to play UNC at UNC. This time it is to advance in the ACC Tournament and play Virginia on Saturday. Of course SU was one goal away from being the 1 seed in the ACC Tourney, but it is what it is.

All things being equal I think Syracuse really should win this and win pretty handily. But things don't always work out that way. UNC is a strange team, they have a lot of talent on their team but it hasn't really translated to victories this season. I was struck by their second line midfield in the game against Notre Dame - Tanner Cook and Will Perry have so much talent but they've been relegated to back up roles. They showed it against the Irish and put up points. UNC showed flashes against the Irish, and despite being thoroughly outplayed the entire game in pretty much every aspect save goaltending, they were never out of it. SU can't take this game for granted, especially since UNC will be playing for their playoff lives.

I'll be watching to see what the motivation levels for SU are - they are playing their best ball of the season right now, but they are playing a team they've already beaten in a tournament they don't really need. That said if they pull out the victory I will be very impressed. Also I'm a little worried about face-offs, Phaup didn't look himself against UNC last time and his numbers weren't great against Navy. I would be greatly encouraged to see him bounce back against the Tar Heels.

I'm with you on the teams motivation, should be easy to tell early how desperate UNC is. They've decided to play a lot of their freshman lately perhaps just looking ahead to next season but you know guys like Kelly and Rowlett don't want to have their season end Thursday.
I'd love to see the team get another shot at UVA and hopefully they feel the same way.
Phaup hasn't been as good the past couple weeks and I worry about him wearing down, but if Varello has success again against the Heels just give him him more runs.
 
Good Post Powell, playing a team twice in the same year is always hard especially if you won the first game and it took place less then two weeks ago. Not an overly complex game I think having just played UNC a few weeks ago, we should know their strengths and weaknesses pretty well. I assume both coaches while try and make minor adjustments but for the most part the teams are what they are. As I think Ivorytower noted in another post expect Breschi to go with his third FOGO (O'Connell) who plays middie who he went to late out of desperation who ended up going 5/7 against Varello/Martin. Phaup was 2-5 against UNC so not terrible but obviously Varello's 13-18 performance was clearly a huge part of the win and helped SU just start to wear UNC down.

Defensively after a slow start SU really locked UNC down in the second half. Trippi and Perry each got a goal late with their speed but SU was simply trying to run out the clock at that point. Still those two have given SU trouble in the past and I expect Breschi will try to attack through the midfield more this game. Mellen locked down Andy Matthews who had 2 assists in the 1st quarter and then was shut out the remainder of the game. Nicky Solomon had 2 goals early and it looked like SU switched Mellen on him for a few possession before going with I believe Bomberry for the rest of the game who held him pointless in the 2nd half. Cunningham had the younger Kelly and the other big frosh Attack Cameron when he rotated in. Kelly didn't register a point and Cameron had a goal in the 1st half but again nothing in the 2nd. Not sure SU is going to do anything all that different to be honest. As Powell pointed out UNC has two pretty good mid lines especially when you consider Perry and Cook are on the 2nd line. That said, that line is also a total enigma. Cook had a great looking goal against ND last week in the first half and then a few possession later he had a terrible turnover and then totally disappeared until he had another nice goal in the 4th. Timmy Kelly had 3 goals against ND and 1 against us and Perry had 2 goals against ND as well. UNC's frosh attack appear to have hit a bit of a wall and the midfield is really having to carry the load. SU poled Timmy Kelly and I suspect they will do the same as well and will pole Perry when he is out there as well. If Breschi tries to go with Perry on the 1st line with Timmy Kelly I would give serious thought to double polling with Kennedy like we did last week which worked out very well.

For SU offensively I think its just continuing to play within itself and spreading the wealth. If you look at the 3rd quarter of the UNC game where it went from 7-7 to 11-7 the faceoffs were actually tied at 2 a piece, yet SU scored 4 goals including a beautiful transition goal to end the third. I thought UNC's D played fairly well and really made life difficult for Curry and Trimbo. They double poled the midfield pretty much the entire game even when the 2nd mid line was in. Trimbo was held scoreless and both he and Curry had 2 turnovers each. Will be interesting to see if UNC goes this route again and what adjustments if any SU will make. Against Navy, Solomon seemed to play up top more even with the starters (he was playing attack) which I thought was interesting. Voigt has been red hot so you don't want to go to Cook or Seebold to get the short stick matchup right away. Will be interesting to see if Desko/Donahue bump Lipka and run Solomon with the 1st midfield and run Cook or Seebold attack which would force UNC if they wanted to double poll to either stick with the plan and let Solomon go against a shorty or adjust and let Cook or Trimbo run against a shorty. Should be an interesting chess match. Lipka could play a big role here to if SU decides to play it straight up, he had only the one goal against UNC last game. Buttermore had 2 goals and gave the UNC goalie fits, expect to see a lot of him. Interested to see what Carlin's status is, as he was very aggressive against UNC with 4 shots and 1 goal. I believe Quinn saw more time with him out against Navy. ( No idea why he was out). Rowlett had Solomon last game (I think), will be interested to see where they place their best defender especially after Gleason from ND torched UNC for 5 goals last Sat mostly on dodges from up top.

Goalies are both pretty good. We all know how locked in Porter has been for pretty much the entire season save a half here or there. Johnson for UNC had 13 saves against ND and had 11 against us. Faceoffs I think favor SU at least goign by the last game and on paper but we have to see how Phaup looks. Feels like he has hit a little bit of a wall with all the punishment he takes and the amount of draws he has taken this year versus last. As I noted in the beginning of the post I expect Breschi to get cute and go with O'Connell either very early or from the jump. Hopefully Phaup matches up with better then UNC's main option. Wing play needs to be a bit better as I think someone pointed out in the Navy thread the wings didn't appear as active as they have and they were a couple of instances where Phaup was battling 2 or 2 on 1 and the wings were MIA. We seemed to have gotten away from the double pole and are going with Dearth and Schwasnick plus a long pole usually either Kennedy or Fernandez. Going to need to be better here on Thursday.

As for the outcome hard to say. SU has gotten better with slow since the ND game but I don't think the outcome will be the same this game if we get down 6-2 again. For me the game hinge on a few things. 1. Turnovers - SU had 17 last time against UNC, way way to much. We were better against Navy but I expect UNC to try and ride hard as we had some issues with that against Navy and got bailed out a few times by the whistle and some great passes. 2. What do we get out of the starting midfield? Curry continues to be a bit of an enigma to me. Looked like an All-American the first half of the season but has faded a bit down the stretch. He had 1 goal on 7 shots against UNC earlier and 1 goal on 4 shots against Navy. Clearly SU runs an offense that spreads the scoring around so there is no one guy dominating the ball/shots. But since the Duke game he has had 1 game where he has scored more then 1 goal (Cornell). I would like to see him hunt his shot a little bit more and be a little more unselfish. Trimbo had a nice breakout game against Navy after a few so/so performances, would love to see him continue that on Thursday.
3. Match the emotion of UNC. In a straight 6 on 6 game I think SU is right now the better team compared to UNC but we cant come out flat while UNC comes out with their hair on fire like they did a few years ago in the 1st round of the tourney and before we know it SU is down 7/8 goals.
I understand the team probably isn't thrilled to be in the 4/5 game because of the tiebreaker crap but they need to take care of business on Thursday and get themselves a second crack at UVA. This team has come a long way since Colgate, a loss here throws some of that away and puts us at a 7 or 8 seed for the tourney. Just win.
 
Motivation always factors. UNC is playing for NCAAs, Cuse is not. Can not expect a repeat of a comeback win if Case trails 6-2 again.

On another note, this format blows, no ACC team should be sidelined 2 to 2 1/2 weeks if the powers want their teams at their sharpest
 
Motivation always factors. UNC is playing for NCAAs, Cuse is not. Can not expect a repeat of a comeback win if Case trails 6-2 again.

On another note, this format blows, no ACC team should be sidelined 2 to 2 1/2 weeks if the powers want their teams at their sharpest

Preaching to the choir on the potential for the 2+ week time off. Asinine.
 
-Desko spoke about avoiding injuries. Did note that he went with more players earlier in Navy game to good effect, he seems to be prepping for NCAA so I expect the same for UNC.

-The team reaction to Seebold's goal was priceless. This team likes and pulls for each other. Kudos to Capt Fusco and other senior leaders who set the tone.

- Voigt was 'sick' in Navy game, unreal hands and conversions off passes in traffic. Now has the same number of goals as the heralded Gaudet and not far behind Pettersen. Fifth year senior, first year starter. Expected a good season from him but geez he's been terrific.
 
-The team reaction to Seebold's goal was priceless. This team likes and pulls for each other. Kudos to Capt Fusco and other senior leaders who set the tone.

Agreed. I was at the game and watching the reaction of the bench etc I told my wife, it's always fun to watch the guys who play very little to never get in and score and see the reaction of the team, one of the best things about sports!
 
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Good Post Powell, playing a team twice in the same year is always hard especially if you won the first game and it took place less then two weeks ago. Not an overly complex game I think having just played UNC a few weeks ago, we should know their strengths and weaknesses pretty well. I assume both coaches while try and make minor adjustments but for the most part the teams are what they are. As I think Ivorytower noted in another post expect Breschi to go with his third FOGO (O'Connell) who plays middie who he went to late out of desperation who ended up going 5/7 against Varello/Martin. Phaup was 2-5 against UNC so not terrible but obviously Varello's 13-18 performance was clearly a huge part of the win and helped SU just start to wear UNC down.

Defensively after a slow start SU really locked UNC down in the second half. Trippi and Perry each got a goal late with their speed but SU was simply trying to run out the clock at that point. Still those two have given SU trouble in the past and I expect Breschi will try to attack through the midfield more this game. Mellen locked down Andy Matthews who had 2 assists in the 1st quarter and then was shut out the remainder of the game. Nicky Solomon had 2 goals early and it looked like SU switched Mellen on him for a few possession before going with I believe Bomberry for the rest of the game who held him pointless in the 2nd half. Cunningham had the younger Kelly and the other big frosh Attack Cameron when he rotated in. Kelly didn't register a point and Cameron had a goal in the 1st half but again nothing in the 2nd. Not sure SU is going to do anything all that different to be honest. As Powell pointed out UNC has two pretty good mid lines especially when you consider Perry and Cook are on the 2nd line. That said, that line is also a total enigma. Cook had a great looking goal against ND last week in the first half and then a few possession later he had a terrible turnover and then totally disappeared until he had another nice goal in the 4th. Timmy Kelly had 3 goals against ND and 1 against us and Perry had 2 goals against ND as well. UNC's frosh attack appear to have hit a bit of a wall and the midfield is really having to carry the load. SU poled Timmy Kelly and I suspect they will do the same as well and will pole Perry when he is out there as well. If Breschi tries to go with Perry on the 1st line with Timmy Kelly I would give serious thought to double polling with Kennedy like we did last week which worked out very well.

For SU offensively I think its just continuing to play within itself and spreading the wealth. If you look at the 3rd quarter of the UNC game where it went from 7-7 to 11-7 the faceoffs were actually tied at 2 a piece, yet SU scored 4 goals including a beautiful transition goal to end the third. I thought UNC's D played fairly well and really made life difficult for Curry and Trimbo. They double poled the midfield pretty much the entire game even when the 2nd mid line was in. Trimbo was held scoreless and both he and Curry had 2 turnovers each. Will be interesting to see if UNC goes this route again and what adjustments if any SU will make. Against Navy, Solomon seemed to play up top more even with the starters (he was playing attack) which I thought was interesting. Voigt has been red hot so you don't want to go to Cook or Seebold to get the short stick matchup right away. Will be interesting to see if Desko/Donahue bump Lipka and run Solomon with the 1st midfield and run Cook or Seebold attack which would force UNC if they wanted to double poll to either stick with the plan and let Solomon go against a shorty or adjust and let Cook or Trimbo run against a shorty. Should be an interesting chess match. Lipka could play a big role here to if SU decides to play it straight up, he had only the one goal against UNC last game. Buttermore had 2 goals and gave the UNC goalie fits, expect to see a lot of him. Interested to see what Carlin's status is, as he was very aggressive against UNC with 4 shots and 1 goal. I believe Quinn saw more time with him out against Navy. ( No idea why he was out). Rowlett had Solomon last game (I think), will be interested to see where they place their best defender especially after Gleason from ND torched UNC for 5 goals last Sat mostly on dodges from up top.

Goalies are both pretty good. We all know how locked in Porter has been for pretty much the entire season save a half here or there. Johnson for UNC had 13 saves against ND and had 11 against us. Faceoffs I think favor SU at least goign by the last game and on paper but we have to see how Phaup looks. Feels like he has hit a little bit of a wall with all the punishment he takes and the amount of draws he has taken this year versus last. As I noted in the beginning of the post I expect Breschi to get cute and go with O'Connell either very early or from the jump. Hopefully Phaup matches up with better then UNC's main option. Wing play needs to be a bit better as I think someone pointed out in the Navy thread the wings didn't appear as active as they have and they were a couple of instances where Phaup was battling 2 or 2 on 1 and the wings were MIA. We seemed to have gotten away from the double pole and are going with Dearth and Schwasnick plus a long pole usually either Kennedy or Fernandez. Going to need to be better here on Thursday.

As for the outcome hard to say. SU has gotten better with slow since the ND game but I don't think the outcome will be the same this game if we get down 6-2 again. For me the game hinge on a few things. 1. Turnovers - SU had 17 last time against UNC, way way to much. We were better against Navy but I expect UNC to try and ride hard as we had some issues with that against Navy and got bailed out a few times by the whistle and some great passes. 2. What do we get out of the starting midfield? Curry continues to be a bit of an enigma to me. Looked like an All-American the first half of the season but has faded a bit down the stretch. He had 1 goal on 7 shots against UNC earlier and 1 goal on 4 shots against Navy. Clearly SU runs an offense that spreads the scoring around so there is no one guy dominating the ball/shots. But since the Duke game he has had 1 game where he has scored more then 1 goal (Cornell). I would like to see him hunt his shot a little bit more and be a little more unselfish. Trimbo had a nice breakout game against Navy after a few so/so performances, would love to see him continue that on Thursday.
3. Match the emotion of UNC. In a straight 6 on 6 game I think SU is right now the better team compared to UNC but we cant come out flat while UNC comes out with their hair on fire like they did a few years ago in the 1st round of the tourney and before we know it SU is down 7/8 goals.
I understand the team probably isn't thrilled to be in the 4/5 game because of the tiebreaker crap but they need to take care of business on Thursday and get themselves a second crack at UVA. This team has come a long way since Colgate, a loss here throws some of that away and puts us at a 7 or 8 seed for the tourney. Just win.
Kelly is the player I worry about. He's very clever dodging around the goal, but more importantly he inspires the team when he gets going.
 
I think another big thing is making life hard for Johnson. He covers up what can be a pretty suspect defense. The transition game, and any momentum they get usually starts w him. If we take good, hard shots like the last time we’re going to have a lot of success again
 
I like to think about who on UNC is/was actually capable of drawing slides from our defense and making something happen. In that category Justin Anderson is good. William Perry is good. Timmy Kelly has the potential to have a good game but seems inconsistent. Matthews doesn’t seem quite fast enough to get by our close D but could probably dodge successfully against a SSDM if they got the switch. Trippi, the younger Kelly, and young Solomon, never really impressed me from a dodging standpoint in our game, but Solomon is an excellent finisher. Cook is crazy inconsistent but always a threat. I think he is more of a problem against a smaller defender but we have some seriously big and/or strong guys on that end of the field, including backup SSDMs. Fernandez is maybe the only guy on our defense who isn’t an absolute tank in one form or another.
 
UNC offense is similar to ours. They have a diversified offense with several good mf who can dodge. Their goalie releases crisp passes upfield very well to any stick to create breaks and unsettled situations. The midfield defense of our lsm and ssdm units are a team strength which makes for an interesting matchup.

Recalling first game, Cuse was disorganized early but adjusted and settled. Stopped breaks and played 6x6 very well . Not expecting a repeat of the woesome first quarter nor domination of 2nd thru fourth quarters.

UNC will play hard for sixty minutes as every game herein may be their last . Convoluted formulas for postseason inclusion but Tar Heels likely needs to move on to Saturday . Nothing will surprise.
 
I like to think about who on UNC is/was actually capable of drawing slides from our defense and making something happen. In that category Justin Anderson is good. William Perry is good. Timmy Kelly has the potential to have a good game but seems inconsistent. Matthews doesn’t seem quite fast enough to get by our close D but could probably dodge successfully against a SSDM if they got the switch. Trippi, the younger Kelly, and young Solomon, never really impressed me from a dodging standpoint in our game, but Solomon is an excellent finisher. Cook is crazy inconsistent but always a threat. I think he is more of a problem against a smaller defender but we have some seriously big and/or strong guys on that end of the field, including backup SSDMs. Fernandez is maybe the only guy on our defense who isn’t an absolute tank in one form or another.

When SU got UNC in the straight up 6 on 6, UNC really struggled to score after a hot first quarter. I suspect Breschi will throw the kitchen sink at us and rotate his lines as he has guys like Timmy Kelly converted attackmen playing midfield to get the young attack guys like Solomon and the Younger Kelly on the field. He could swing him back to attack and bump a guy like Perry or Cook back to the 1st mid line and try and create some matchup problems. The current UNC team reminds me a bit of SU last year, a lot of young offensive talent capable of going off any game that also goes silent for long stretches. SU poled Timmy Kelly I think the entire game and Justin Anderson did end up with 2 goals though one of them was on the man up vs the 6 on 6. Again I think SU will wait and see what if anything different Breschi does and then adjust accordingly. Mellen was on Matthews pretty much the entire game and I suspect that he will be again as he is the main QB attackmen for UNC. I think as you noted SU has to try and lock down the known dodgers and then just hope that guys like Trippi and Perry who are likely to draw short sticks have another inconsistent game. I think SU needs to try and limit the transition and unsettled opportunites for UNC as they are going to look to push anything they can to avoid a prolonged 6 on 6 possession where SU will likely have the upper hand. Seems a close game is likely inevitable unless SU can pull away late again.
 
Having a hard time mustering up much excitement for this game. Meanwhile , teams are most dangerous when wounded and cornered . Im expecting Cuse to lose and Giants to pick Daniel Jones. Hope Im wrong on both
 

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