Numbers Game - Warning: Might be a bit boring | Syracusefan.com

Numbers Game - Warning: Might be a bit boring

imdevo

Walk On
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
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Slow morning at work, so I decided to project out the rest of the ACC season. The probabilities for each game are determined by the Pomeroy ratings (which are based on opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency) as of this morning.
A few notes: ExpW is the team's expected amount of wins through the end of the ACC regular season, Luck is how many wins a team has over-performed or under-performed to date (based on the current iteration of statistics, SOS is the team's projected strength of schedule (given in generic win percentage, which is the chance that a team will beat an average team on a neutral court), and SOSTD is that team's strength of schedule to date.
I have a few other tabs such as The Standings tab. This has the projected standings as well as charts, detailing the probability that each team will win a given amount of games through the end of the season and the probability that each team will win at least a given amount of games through the end of the season. I came up with these numbers by running a brute force simulation, which details the chances that every possible outcome of games for that team will occur.
Also have a Teams tab that provides a game-by-game breakdown for each team, most notably, the win probability in each game.

I won't share everything because I do not want to bore everyone. Let me know your thoughts, and my apologies if this is all boring stuff. Love to hear your opinion.

Syracuse Location Win Loss Result
Miami Home 0.92380 0.07620 W
Virginia Tech Away 0.89872 0.10128 W
North Carolina Home 0.87129 0.12871 W
Boston College Away 0.89346 0.10654 W
Pittsburgh Home 0.69872 0.30128
Miami Away 0.76978 0.23022
Wake Forest Away 0.79772 0.20228
Duke Home 0.79791 0.20209
Notre Dame Home 0.92761 0.07239
Clemson Home 0.85811 0.14189
Pittsburgh Away 0.39011 0.60989
North Carolina St Home 0.94113 0.05887
Boston College Home 0.96816 0.03184
Duke Away 0.52128 0.47872
Maryland Away 0.74757 0.25243
Virginia Away 0.47213 0.52787
Georgia Tech Home 0.95583 0.04417
Florida St Away 0.46589 0.53411
Games Played 4 Wins 4
Avg Prob To Date 0.89682 ExpW 14.31
Avg Prob Remaining 0.73657 Avg Prob 0.77218
SOS To Date 0.67065 SOS 0.83927
SOS Remaining 0.86357 Luck 0.41
 

cliftonparksufan

Iggy Award Czar/Co 2020-21 Iggy Award Winner PPG
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Slow morning at work, so I decided to project out the rest of the ACC season. The probabilities for each game are determined by the Pomeroy ratings (which are based on opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency) as of this morning.

There is no way you are Devo.
 

sutomcat

Co 2020-21 Iggy Award Winner MPG (special again)
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Slow morning at work, so I decided to project out the rest of the ACC season. The probabilities for each game are determined by the Pomeroy ratings (which are based on opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency) as of this morning.
A few notes: ExpW is the team's expected amount of wins through the end of the ACC regular season, Luck is how many wins a team has over-performed or under-performed to date (based on the current iteration of statistics, SOS is the team's projected strength of schedule (given in generic win percentage, which is the chance that a team will beat an average team on a neutral court), and SOSTD is that team's strength of schedule to date.
I have a few other tabs such as The Standings tab. This has the projected standings as well as charts, detailing the probability that each team will win a given amount of games through the end of the season and the probability that each team will win at least a given amount of games through the end of the season. I came up with these numbers by running a brute force simulation, which details the chances that every possible outcome of games for that team will occur.
Also have a Teams tab that provides a game-by-game breakdown for each team, most notably, the win probability in each game.

I won't share everything because I do not want to bore everyone. Let me know your thoughts, and my apologies if this is all boring stuff. Love to hear your opinion.

Syracuse Location Win Loss Result
Miami Home 0.92380 0.07620 W
Virginia Tech Away 0.89872 0.10128 W
North Carolina Home 0.87129 0.12871 W
Boston College Away 0.89346 0.10654 W
Pittsburgh Home 0.69872 0.30128
Miami Away 0.76978 0.23022
Wake Forest Away 0.79772 0.20228
Duke Home 0.79791 0.20209
Notre Dame Home 0.92761 0.07239
Clemson Home 0.85811 0.14189
Pittsburgh Away 0.39011 0.60989
North Carolina St Home 0.94113 0.05887
Boston College Home 0.96816 0.03184
Duke Away 0.52128 0.47872
Maryland Away 0.74757 0.25243
Virginia Away 0.47213 0.52787
Georgia Tech Home 0.95583 0.04417
Florida St Away 0.46589 0.53411
Games Played 4 Wins 4
Avg Prob To Date 0.89682 ExpW 14.31
Avg Prob Remaining 0.73657 Avg Prob 0.77218
SOS To Date 0.67065 SOS 0.83927
SOS Remaining 0.86357 Luck 0.41

3 losses for the remaining portion of the regular season seems reasonable to me. My guess is that we will lose 2 on the road and 1 at home.

Kind of surprising to see Syracuse favored on the road at Duke and an underdog against Virginia and FSU. But I guess Duke has played pretty poorly in recent games...
 

HarrisonJBounel

All Conference
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Messages
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Slow morning at work, so I decided to project out the rest of the ACC season. The probabilities for each game are determined by the Pomeroy ratings (which are based on opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency) as of this morning.
A few notes: ExpW is the team's expected amount of wins through the end of the ACC regular season, Luck is how many wins a team has over-performed or under-performed to date (based on the current iteration of statistics, SOS is the team's projected strength of schedule (given in generic win percentage, which is the chance that a team will beat an average team on a neutral court), and SOSTD is that team's strength of schedule to date.
I have a few other tabs such as The Standings tab. This has the projected standings as well as charts, detailing the probability that each team will win a given amount of games through the end of the season and the probability that each team will win at least a given amount of games through the end of the season. I came up with these numbers by running a brute force simulation, which details the chances that every possible outcome of games for that team will occur.
Also have a Teams tab that provides a game-by-game breakdown for each team, most notably, the win probability in each game.

I won't share everything because I do not want to bore everyone. Let me know your thoughts, and my apologies if this is all boring stuff. Love to hear your opinion.

Syracuse Location Win Loss Result
Miami Home 0.92380 0.07620 W
Virginia Tech Away 0.89872 0.10128 W
North Carolina Home 0.87129 0.12871 W
Boston College Away 0.89346 0.10654 W
Pittsburgh Home 0.69872 0.30128
Miami Away 0.76978 0.23022
Wake Forest Away 0.79772 0.20228
Duke Home 0.79791 0.20209
Notre Dame Home 0.92761 0.07239
Clemson Home 0.85811 0.14189
Pittsburgh Away 0.39011 0.60989
North Carolina St Home 0.94113 0.05887
Boston College Home 0.96816 0.03184
Duke Away 0.52128 0.47872
Maryland Away 0.74757 0.25243
Virginia Away 0.47213 0.52787
Georgia Tech Home 0.95583 0.04417
Florida St Away 0.46589 0.53411
Games Played 4 Wins 4
Avg Prob To Date 0.89682 ExpW 14.31
Avg Prob Remaining 0.73657 Avg Prob 0.77218
SOS To Date 0.67065 SOS 0.83927
SOS Remaining 0.86357 Luck 0.41

So I multiplied the expected win percentages for the rest of the year, and it came out that, according to this, we have a 0.7936% chance of going undefeated for the rest of the regular season. Less than 1%. At this point.

A little surprised (pleased?) that we are 80% favorites against Duke at home and 52% favorites at Duke.

Interesting.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
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The last 8 games will be interesting. 3 gimmes at home, but 4 very tough matchups on the road.

Those 4 road games (over an 8 game period) is probably just as tough a string of road games as we ever saw in the Big East. Of course the first 10 games are closer to the America East.
 

Knicks411

Living Legend
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I bet by the time @Duke comes around we'll be a betting underdog, though Pomeroy might have us as a favorite.
 

orange79

Internet Sleuth
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Aug 20, 2011
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God I hate data
Interesting. He has absolutely no feelings about you at all.
DataTNG.jpg
 

moqui

generational talent
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Aug 25, 2011
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The last 8 games will be interesting. 3 gimmes at home, but 4 very tough matchups on the road.

Those 4 road games (over an 8 game period) is probably just as tough a string of road games as we ever saw in the Big East. Of course the first 10 games are closer to the America East.
if you look at Pomeroy's conference strength of schedule so far, SU and Pitt are 15th and 14th . . . little wonder that we are the only two undefeated teams

ACC_standings.jpg
 

CiceroCuse

Scout Team
Joined
Feb 15, 2013
Messages
346
Like
243
Slow morning at work, so I decided to project out the rest of the ACC season. The probabilities for each game are determined by the Pomeroy ratings (which are based on opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency) as of this morning.
A few notes: ExpW is the team's expected amount of wins through the end of the ACC regular season, Luck is how many wins a team has over-performed or under-performed to date (based on the current iteration of statistics, SOS is the team's projected strength of schedule (given in generic win percentage, which is the chance that a team will beat an average team on a neutral court), and SOSTD is that team's strength of schedule to date.
I have a few other tabs such as The Standings tab. This has the projected standings as well as charts, detailing the probability that each team will win a given amount of games through the end of the season and the probability that each team will win at least a given amount of games through the end of the season. I came up with these numbers by running a brute force simulation, which details the chances that every possible outcome of games for that team will occur.
Also have a Teams tab that provides a game-by-game breakdown for each team, most notably, the win probability in each game.

I won't share everything because I do not want to bore everyone. Let me know your thoughts, and my apologies if this is all boring stuff. Love to hear your opinion.

Syracuse Location Win Loss Result
Miami Home 0.92380 0.07620 W
Virginia Tech Away 0.89872 0.10128 W
North Carolina Home 0.87129 0.12871 W
Boston College Away 0.89346 0.10654 W
Pittsburgh Home 0.69872 0.30128
Miami Away 0.76978 0.23022
Wake Forest Away 0.79772 0.20228
Duke Home 0.79791 0.20209
Notre Dame Home 0.92761 0.07239
Clemson Home 0.85811 0.14189
Pittsburgh Away 0.39011 0.60989
North Carolina St Home 0.94113 0.05887
Boston College Home 0.96816 0.03184
Duke Away 0.52128 0.47872
Maryland Away 0.74757 0.25243
Virginia Away 0.47213 0.52787
Georgia Tech Home 0.95583 0.04417
Florida St Away 0.46589 0.53411
Games Played 4 Wins 4
Avg Prob To Date 0.89682 ExpW 14.31
Avg Prob Remaining 0.73657 Avg Prob 0.77218
SOS To Date 0.67065 SOS 0.83927
SOS Remaining 0.86357 Luck 0.41

Its interesting that we would currently be favored at Duke but considered underdogs at Virginia andvFlorida State. I love the kenpom stats. Better than RPI And BPI in my opinion. With that sais, these are fluid numbers and can change significantly in a weeks time.
 

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